See dozens of Player Spotlights here >>>

Ready for His Third Act

As we approach the 2023 NFL season, all eyes are on DeAndre Hopkins, the 31-year-old wide receiver who is about to embark on the third act of his illustrious career. The burning question is whether this chapter will echo the triumph of his Houston days or mirror the disappointment of his brief stint in Arizona.

When Hopkins entered free agency a few months ago, the consensus was that he would sign with a Super Bowl contender boasting an elite passing attack and an innovative coaching staff. Few anticipated the Tennessee Titans as a potential destination, but perhaps we underestimated them.

Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans have won 58.5% of their games, ranking 8th best over the past five years. They've also maintained winning records in four out of those five seasons.

Hope for Ryan Tannehill, Be Ready for Will Levis

A few months ago, it seemed as if Ryan Tannehill's days were numbered:

• The Titans hired Ran Carthon as their new general manager, replacing Jon Robinson.
• Tannehill is due $27 million in the final year of a 4-year, $118 million contract.
• The team drafted Kentucky quarterback Will Levis in the second round.

However, as the dust settled on the preseason and training camp opened, Tannehill remains in place. He didn't have to renegotiate his deal, and the coaches haven't wavered in their support. In many ways, the signing of DeAndre Hopkins was the final point in Tannehill's favor. Why add a 31-year-old All-Pro receiver if you're in the process of rebuilding? Clearly, the Titans believe they are still in a playoff-contending window.

If you're targeting Hopkins this draft season, you'll want Tannehill to retain the starting job. The only way Levis gets under center as a rookie is if Tannehill either gets injured or struggles. And a struggling Tannehill means Hopkins didn't thrive, either.

Understanding the Titans' Offense

Understanding the Titans' offense is crucial. Head coach Mike Vrabel, despite his defensive background, has a vision that permeates all aspects of the team. Notably, no team has thrown less during Vrabel's tenure, even with three different offensive coordinators over that span: Matt LaFleur (2018), Arthur Smith (2019-20), and Todd Downing (2021-22).

Table: NFL Team Passing Offenses (2018-2022), Sorted by Ascending Number of Passing Attempts

Tim Kelly is the Next OC Up

The 2023 season introduces yet another play-caller, Tim Kelly, who steps into the role after a season as the passing game coordinator. Interestingly, Kelly's first stint as an offensive coordinator was with the Houston Texans, where his star player was none other than DeAndre Hopkins.

Hopkins’ final season in Houston (2019) was Kelly’s first as offensive coordinator, and they made beautiful music together:

• 150 targets
• 104 receptions
• 1,165 yards
• 7 touchdowns
• WR5 fantasy ranking

While we can be sure the Titans will continue to run the ball more than most teams, thanks to Derrick Henry, we also have to believe Hopkins signed, in part, because he trusts Tim Kelly to scheme opportunities for him as the alpha receiver.

Hopkins Remains a No. 1 Receiver

Someone looking at Hopkins' annual stat lines might conclude he’s on the downslope of his career. And history isn’t kind to 30+ year old receivers who have started to show a declining skill set. But what’s important is not to mistake reduced snaps with a declining skill set.

Several issues clouded Hopkins’ 2021-2022 seasons:

1. A handful of injuries set him back in 2021.
2. A PED suspension robbed him of the first six games in 2022.
3. Kyler Murray’s season-ending injury completely derailed the Cardinals' passing attack in 2022.

But if you isolate Hopkins’ per-play metrics, you’ll see he was just as effective as his Houston heyday.

Table: Hopkins' 2021-22 Key Metrics versus his Career Average

In Target Rate We Trust

Hopkins dominated in Houston despite playing in a run-heavy offense, so he’s not stepping into an unknown environment. After a relatively modest 14.4% target share as a rookie, Hopkins' target share shot to the 25%-30% range consistently.

Table: Hopkins' Career Target Share

Note: Attempts reflect games when Hopkins played

Bringing It All Together

The Titans' run-heavy approach might cap Hopkins' potential for a monstrous season, but it doesn't rule him out as a reliable WR2 capable of delivering top-25 numbers.

Assuming Hopkins garners his career-average 26.7% target share, and the Titans have 472 passing attempts (the seasonal average during Vrabel's tenure), it implies 126 targets. Applying his career catch rate (62.4%), we're looking at 79 receptions. At his career per-catch average and touchdown rates, we're looking at 1,041 yards and 6 touchdown catches. This implies a baseline expectation of 219 fantasy points (PPR).

Over the last five seasons, 219 fantasy points would've ranked:

• 2018 – WR19
• 2019 – WR21
• 2020 – WR22
• 2021 – WR25
• 2022 – WR20

Past Stats

Projections

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, while Hopkins' move to the Titans might not promise a triumphant Act 3, it certainly doesn't spell disaster. With a solid track record, a familiar offensive coordinator, and a team that believes in its playoff potential, Hopkins remains a valuable asset for the 2023 fantasy football season.