The Scott Fish Bowl is a huge fantasy football tournament that drafts annually in July. The league attracts 1000s of fantasy players and content creators from the fantasy football industry, making it highly competitive. One of the distinctive features of this tournament is the inclusion of a Superflex spot, allowing teams to play a second quarterback each week. But how does one draft optimally for a league like this? Is it possible that even fantasy football experts may be employing suboptimal strategies?
Related: See how small scoring and league changes affect your rankings here >>>
It's a well-known fact that quarterbacks are valuable assets in fantasy football, as they consistently rack up big scores. However, in most leagues where only one quarterback can start each week, their draft value is relatively diminished. Superflex leagues, on the other hand, reverse this trend. By increasing demand for quarterbacks, their value skyrockets.
At Footballguys, we employ a method called "Value-Based Drafting" to determine player value in a league. We analyze the league and calculate the number of players expected to start at each position. The projected points of the worst starter at each position then serve as a baseline for comparison. This strategy was first outlined (and last updated in 2019) by Joe Bryant, one of the founders of Footballguys.
Scott Fish Bowl participants are well aware of this, as indicated by the average draft position for the tournament showing an average of eight quarterbacks in the first round. However, a closer analysis reveals that drafters need to consider additional factors beyond just the Superflex slot, specific to Scott Fish Bowl leagues hosted on the Sleeper platform.
Scott Fish Bowl Scoring
These leagues also offer extra scoring opportunities, such as:
- Passing first downs scoring 0.1 points
- Passing completions scoring 0.1 points
- Passing touchdowns yielding 6 points (2 points more than the standard)
- Rushing carries scoring 0.25 points each
- Rushing and receiving first downs scoring 1 point each
- Tight ends earning an additional point for receptions and receiving first downs
To begin to assess the impact of these scoring rules on player rankings, we can examine the projected scores of the best players at each position:
- Josh Allen
- Standard PPR scoring: 456 points
- Scott Fish Bowl: 624 points (+168)
- Justin Jefferson
- Standard PPR scoring: 364 points
- Scott Fish Bowl: 446 points (+82)
- Austin Ekeler
- Standard PPR scoring: 327 points
- Scott Fish Bowl: 464 points (+137)
- Travis Kelce
- Standard PPR scoring: 293 points
- Scott Fish Bowl: 453 points (+160)
From these results, it becomes evident that quarterbacks benefit the most, followed by tight ends and running backs, before a substantial drop-off occurs for wide receivers.
However, the scores of the best players alone do not determine their fantasy value. It is essential to consider the worst players that teams will have to start at each position—our worst-starter baseline. To understand how to establish these baselines for each league, we first need to discuss the flex position.
The Flex Equalizes Baselines
Imagine a fantasy league where you just have 10 starting spots - any position goes, just start 10 players. Drafting for this league is relatively simple: project fantasy points, rank the players accordingly, and select the top available player consistently. If we applied this approach to the Scott Fish Bowl, the math we just did for the top players would be directly applicable.
Now, let's imagine another league where teams start one running back, three wide receivers, and have a single RB/WR flex spot. In a 12-team league, the competition for the 12 flex spots would be between running backs ranked 13-24 and wide receivers ranked 37-48. Even in a PPR league, the running backs would fill all the flex spots since the 24th-ranked running back outperforms the 37th-ranked wide receiver. Consequently, the baseline for the worst starter at the running back position is lowered to RB24, while the wide receiver baseline remains at WR36. Only when a running back is projected to score fewer points than the 37th-ranked wide receiver would we consider selecting wide receivers for the flex spot. This equalizes the baselines, making the math a little more like our imaginary "any position goes" league..
In the Scott Fish Bowl, in addition to the Superflex position, there are two additional RB/WR/TE flex spots. This equalizes the baselines for wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends—all three positions have identical baselines. Therefore, for these three skill positions, we can simply rank players in descending order of projected fantasy points. The only adjustment required is for quarterbacks, where we need a separate worst-starter baseline.
For Scott Fish Bowl, the math says this means we go from:
- 12 quarterbacks to 24 (all 12 Superflex spots)
- 24 running backs to 39 (15 of the 24 available RB/WR/TE flex spots)
- 36 wide receivers to 42 (6 of the 24 available RB/WR/TE flex spots)
- 12 tight ends to 15 (3 of the 24 available RB/WR/TE flex spots)
Now, armed with the worst-starter baselines sampled from QB24, RB39, WR42, and TE15, we can generate our rankings.
Getting our Rankings
To calculate a player's draft value, we compare their projected points to the baseline for their position. Let's take two players as examples: Austin Ekeler and Josh Allen. Ekeler's draft value is calculated by subtracting the running back baseline of 202 from his projected points (464, as calculated above), resulting in a value of 262. Allen's value is determined by subtracting the quarterback baseline of 380 from his projected points of 624, giving him a value of 244. Thus, in this league, it would be advisable to draft Austin Ekeler before Josh Allen.
The average draft position for Scott Fish Bowl had eight quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Now, let's see what the value-based drafting math suggests:
1. RB - Austin Ekeler
2. RB - Christian McCaffrey
3. TE - Travis Kelce
4. QB - Josh Allen
5. WR - Justin Jefferson
6. QB - Jalen Hurts
7. RB - Bijan Robinson
8. RB - Saquon Barkley
9. RB - Jonathan Taylor
10. RB - Josh Jacobs
11. WR - Cooper Kupp
12. QB - Pat Mahomes
Contrary to the high number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round based on average draft position, our value-based rankings include only three quarterbacks over the first twelve picks - Superflex alone does not fully describe the league dynamics. In the Scott Fish Bowl, mathematical exploitation of average draft position is possible, even with a significant number of fantasy football experts participating.
Will this strategy guarantee success every time? Not necessarily. Drafting Austin Ekeler first overall, for example, could be met with the unfortunate event of him being injured in Week 1. Such uncertainties are inherent in football, which is why we play the games. Nevertheless, by optimizing our drafting strategies through the analysis of drafts and spreadsheets over the past two decades, we believe this method offers the best approach.
If the math involved in this process appears too complex or time-consuming to perform independently—considering the need to generate statistical projections for all NFL players—don't worry. We've got you covered. Here are three ways you can immediately apply these (and many more) principles to your own leagues:
- Rankings: Our new rankings page allows you to quickly adjust the league settings to match your own or import your league from your league website. The rankings shown will adjust according to your league settings using the strategies touched on in this article.
- Cheatsheets: Our cheatsheets serve the same purpose, presenting the rankings in a printable format that you can conveniently bring along to your draft. You can cross out players as the draft progresses.
- Draft Dominator: The math employed by the Draft Dominator goes beyond what is discussed in this article. It generates rankings not only at the start of the draft but also adjusts between each pick to cater to your roster's needs. The Draft Dominator is available online and as a mobile app.
By utilizing these resources and strategies, you can enhance your drafting approach and increase your chances of success in fantasy football leagues.