Welcome to Week 15 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Skittish about December - Part II
- System or Player? The RB Edition
- Too Young or Prime? Emerging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues
- For Real/Fool's Gold - QB Edition (see below)
Let's roll.
For Real/Fool's Gold - QB Edition
Matt Waldman: These backs have been top-24 producers for the past month.
- Trevor Lawrence (QB1)
- Brock Purdy (QB4)
- Jordan Love (QB8)
- C.J. Stroud (QB10)
In re-draft formats with PPR scoring and thinking about taking a runner to be your RB1 and/or RB2...
Which two are most likely worth a top-48 pick next year?
Phil Alexander: Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud are most likely worth a top-48 pick in Super Flex formats next season. These guys aren't just top-12 producers over the past month. They are the fifth and sixth-ranked quarterbacks this season, respectively. Purdy leads the NFL in completion rate, QBR, and just about every yards per pass attempt metric currently in use.
If defenses were going to figure out Purdy, his weapons, or Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme, we would have at least seen signs already. Instead, Purdy has turned into a lock for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in what feels like every game.
Stroud's rookie season is beyond compare. There isn't another quarterback since the merger to throw for at least 3500 yards and 20 touchdowns over the first 13 games of his rookie season. While Stroud's league-best 1.1% interception rate will regress moving forward, it's also fair to expect his 4.5% touchdown rate and 62.4% completion rate to improve as he develops. There is little chance we've already seen Stroud's peak as a fantasy asset.
Jason Wood: Sometimes Matt can really force us to roll up our sleeves and dig deep to answer his questions. But this time, he gave us a softball over the middle of the plate.
Waldman: And sometimes, that softball is a water balloon loaded with shaving cream. Careful...
Wood: Ha! I'll take my chances. Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud deserve top-48 picks in a Superflex draft. Kyle Shanahan's system and the supporting cast are top-notch, but Brock Purdy is executing the offense with Aaron Rodgers' precision. Purdy, initially a feel-good story as a rookie, has steadily silenced his doubters with an MVP-caliber season. He currently leads the league in completion rate (70.2%), touchdown rate (7.0%), and yards per attempt (9.9). Drafting Purdy also provides the security of knowing that the team can afford to lose an offensive asset and still function at an elite level.
Stroud has had a near-historic start, propelling the Texans from a bottom dweller to a legitimate contender for the AFC South. The youth on this team makes the prospect of a step-function improvement far more likely than with most teams. When you have a rookie quarterback producing top-12 numbers despite facing challenges such as holes in the offensive line and an unreliable running game, you can confidently consider him as a foundational option in your Superflex draft.
Corey Spala: I think Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud are most likely worth a top-48 pick in drafts next season. As of right now, both these quarterbacks average more points per game than the remaining two quarterbacks. Purdy has the benefit of being in a top-tier system. He excels in the system and has consistently proven his worth for San Francisco.
Combining the system, weapons, and consistency is a formula for success. Stroud has shown his ability to be a top-tier quarterback in the league as a rookie. Houston has exceeded expectations this season and should continue to develop heading into 2024. Stroud has intriguing weapons around him and the individual talent around him. He was the reason Houston also drafted Tank Dell, and if they continue to put trust into their quarterback, then the sky's the limit for Stroud.
Will Grant: Brock Purdy is a slam dunk answer here. He had a couple of bad games in the middle of the season when they evaluated him for a potential concussion, but after the week nine bye, he has been on fire. Over the last five games, Purdy has averaged over 300 yards passing and has 13 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions. With the offensive weapons around him, there's no reason to doubt he will be a solid fantasy QB next season, either.
C.J. Stroud has done wonders for the Texans this season. He's the easy choice for offensive rookie of the year, and all indications are that he will be an excellent NFL quarterback for the next several years. The Texans have taken a big step forward but are still a team with many holes to fill. With a few key upgrades on offense and another full summer to work with the team, Stroud is an easy choice for a top-48 pick next season.
Craig Lakins: Brock Purdy has the best case for being selected in the first four rounds of a Superflex draft next season. While his game doesn't contain much flash, he's the perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense that asks its quarterbacks to distribute the ball efficiently. In 2023, Purdy slots just behind Lamar Jackson in fantasy points per game despite only running for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has playmakers all over the field in San Francisco, and his primary function is getting the ball to them so they can go to work.
With his primary weapons - Tank Dell and Nico Collins - back for 2024, CJ Stroud will be a top-48 pick in this format. He's been as consistent as any quarterback in the league this season. His play has taken the Texans to a level no one thought possible before the season started. Regarding his fantasy production, he's currently ranked 7th in fantasy points per game this season.
Which two are least likely?
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