This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs DET) vs Cameron Sutton
These teams met in week 16, and Jefferson had no issue finding space against Sutton. He finished with 6 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown against the corner. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past 2 months and Jefferson is going to be motivated to try and reach his goal of 1,000 yards this season after missing 7 games due to injury. Detroit does not have much to play for this week while the Vikings have a very small chance to still make the playoffs. Look for Jefferson to take advantage of the matchup against Sutton again this week and try to close out the season on a high note.
WR Davante Adams (LV vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Surtain is a great cover corner in the NFL. However, Adams has his number and has walked away as the winner of almost every matchup. When they met earlier this season, Adams finished with 6 catches for 66 yards against Surtain. He ended last season with two touchdowns, both against Surtain. The biggest wild card in this matchup will be the play of Aiden O'Connell. Adams has not struggled against Surtain and should be slightly upgraded against a Denver team with not much to play for.
WR Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI) vs Tyrique Stevenson
Green Bay has a win-and-they-are-in-the-playoffs scenario. This offense will be all cylinders firing this week in a push to sneak in. Jordan Love has played much better down the stretch, and the Chicago defense has been shaky at best. Stevenson is currently allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage snap, and the only bright spot in this secondary has been Jaylon Johnson, who should match up with Christian Watson. Reed has played extremely well down the stretch and is finding the end zone at a high rate. This will be one of the biggest games to watch this weekend as it directly affects the playoff picture.
WR Calvin Ridley (JAX vs TEN) vs Tre Avery
Tennessee has nothing to play for outside of pride this week, while Jacksonville is fighting to win the division. There is currently a 3-way tie for the top spot at 9-7, and we should expect Jacksonville to play 100% this week. Ridley gets one of the best matchups of the week against Avery. The young corner is allowing 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap on the outside and is being picked on nearly 30% of the time. Avery also has an affinity for allowing touchdowns. Look for Ridley to have a big game this week as the Jaguars look to lock up the division and head into the playoffs on a high note.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs ARZ) vs Starling Thomas V
Seattle lost control of their playoff destiny with a loss to the Steelers last week. However, they still have a chance to sneak in if they can win and Green Bay loses or ties. There will be a fair amount of scoreboard-watching during this game, but the starters should still be in regardless. Metcalf has been up and down in recent weeks after drawing tough coverage down the stretch. He will get a much more favorable matchup against Thomas, who is currently allowing 0.51 fantasy points per coverage snap this season. Look for Geno Smith to push the ball down the field to Metcalf and Tyler Lockett this week, and Seattle fights for one of the last wild card spots.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs JAX) vs Tyson Campbell
Tennessee has nothing to play for outside of pride this week. That does not change the matchup that Hopkins has on the outside against Campbell. The young corner is allowing 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap despite being targeted just 17% of the time. This means he is giving up big plays left and right. Look for Hopkins to be targeted early and often this week as the Titans try and keep one of their rivals from winning the division.
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI vs NYG)
Goedert has been on a tear the last two weeks, recording 14+ fantasy points in each contest. He has been targeted a combined 15 times and is filling the void left by a banged-up DeVonta Smith. The Giants fall near the middle of the pack in points allowed to tight ends but also have nothing to play for this week. The Eagles are trying to right the ship after losing to the Cardinals last week. Look for Goedert to be heavily targeted again this week.
TE Tucker Kraft (GB vs CHI)
Kraft continues to excel as other Green Bay receivers have been dealing with injuries. He has surpassed 10 fantasy points in each of the past four games and has a solid matchup against the Bears this week. Chicago has allowed 6 total touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Mike Evans (TB vs CAR) vs Donte Jackson
Despite the overall team record, Carolina has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. They do not face as much volume as other secondaries due to game script but have played well when the ball is in the air otherwise. Evans did have a big game in week 13 )7 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown) but Tampa Bay has become more balanced, and Baker Mayfield is spreading the ball around. The Buccaneers need this win to contend for the division crown and we should expect the offense to be pushing the ball down the field.
WR Chris Olave (NO vs ATL) vs A.J. Terrell
It will be hard to predict Olave this week, as he seems to be the only healthy weapon heading into this game. However, he runs into a tough man coverage matchup against Terrell on the outside. Terrell and the Atlanta secondary have played very well, and the young corner is currently allowing just 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 16% of the time. The health of Alvin Kamara is in question this week and Olave could salvage his day through sheer volume. Downgrade this receiving unit in a tough matchup against Atlanta.
WR New England Receivers (NE vs NYJ) vs New York Secondary
There would be little reason to still be playing anyone in the New England offense at this point in the season. However, if anyone was considering it, this is your last warning. The Jets secondary allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have been elite on the outside. Devante Parker has not played well this season, and there is little reason to trust this New England offense to do anything this week.
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs CLE) vs Martin Emerson Jr
The Bengals have been eliminated from playoff contention and do not have a whole lot to play for. The Browns have locked up their spot and cannot move too much in seeding. That does not change how good this defense has been. The Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points overall to opposing receivers and are led by Emerson on the outside. He is allowing just 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and may finish the year as one of the most efficient corners in the league. Jake Browning will try to finish the year on a high note, but this is a very tough defense to do it against.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs LV) vs Jack Jones
The Raiders defense has played extremely well in recent weeks, while the Broncos have regressed to their early season woes. There is not a lot to play for in this game for either team outside of pride and beating a divisional opponent. Jones has played really well on the outside and allows just 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap. The rest of the secondary has not played very well and Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mimms can be upgraded slightly. The Broncos do not have a quarterback and should struggle offensively again this week. Avoid the Denver offense at all costs if possible.
TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs IND)
Schultz has not returned to his pre-injury glory. He scored just 3.2 fantasy points last week and has had single-digit performances in three out of his last four games. Even the return of C.J. Stroud has not helped his fantasy case. The Colts have allowed just a single tight end to beat them for double-digit fantasy points this season and remain one of the toughest matchups for the position.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs NO)
Do not trust Pitts if you are fighting for the fantasy championship this weekend. He had a single catch for 5 yards last week and continues to not be utilized in this offense. Pitts has single-digit performances in 8 of his last 10 and just a single touchdown since week 7. When they met earlier this season, Pitts scored just 4.2 points. Do not trust Pitts this week when it truly matters.