This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs. PHI) vs. James Bradberry
The Eagles may keep winning, but their secondary continues to give up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers in the league. Both Bradberry and Darius Slay have been giving up big plays on the outside as well as facing a ton of volume through their 11 games. Aiyuk has been up and down this season, and it can be hard to pinpoint who will excel from week to week with the elite weapons all over the field. However, Christian McCaffrey has the toughest matchup against this run defense, and Aiyuk has the best on Bradberry on the outside. Bradberry currently allows 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Look for big plays down the field and upgrade the entire pass-catching unit for the 49ers.
WR Diontae Johnson (PIT vs. ARZ) vs. Kei'Trel Clark
Arizona has been a mess at corner all season. They benched Marco Wilson last week due to poor play and have little in the way of backups to step up. Pittsburgh looked like a different offense a single week since letting Matt Canada go and could continue that trend this week against a poor Arizona defense. Clark has been picked on regularly this season, allows 0.36 fantasy points per coverage snap, and is being targeted 21% of the time. Look for Pittsburgh to roll this week as this offense continues to wake up from a multi-year slumber.
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs. TB) vs. Christian Izien
The Carolina offense has been in shambles most of the season, with the lone bright spot being Thielen. Despite the great matchup last week, he did fall flat, but he has another great shot to excel this week. Tampa Bay has struggled mightily against receivers so far this season. They have been unable to stop anyone on the perimeter or in the slot. Thielen moves all over the field and is in the best position to take advantage. Izien is currently allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. Both D.J. Chark Jr and Jonathan Mingo can also be upgraded into sleeper flex territory on the outside this week.
WR Curtis Samuel (WAS vs. MIA) vs. Kader Kohou
Washington continues to churn out yards and receiving stats but has struggled to turn that into points and wins. Sam Howell ranks near the top in most passing stats but is also being sacked at an alarming rate. Miami is going to pin its ears back to get after the quarterback and that will play right into the strength of Samuel. Look for quick-hitting plays across the middle and trying to get the ball in his hands out in space. Kohou is currently allowing 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. This is a great matchup for Samuel if they can get the ball out quickly.
WR Chris Olave (NO vs. DET) vs. Brian Branch
This is a situation to watch as we get closer to game time as Olave left last week with a concussion. However, he made a surprise appearance at practice this week and could be cleared ahead of their matchup with Detroit. Olave will be force-fed the ball against a Detroit secondary that is suddenly full of holes if he is healthy. Branch currently allows 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. The Saints have little else in the receiving department right now, and this could be another big game for Olave if he clears concussion protocol in time.
WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs. WAS) vs. Benjamin St-Juste
The entire Miami receiving group can be upgraded against Washington this week, but Waddle may have the biggest jump against St-Juste. The young corner allows 0.43 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Tyreek Hill is the usual must-start on the other side, but there should be more than enough meat on the bone for Waddle to have a big week against Washington. Put Waddle squarely into WR2 territory this week with a potential top-10 finish on the horizon if he gets enough targets.
TE Taysom Hill (NO vs. DET)
Hill always flirts with must-start territory with his high upside and multi-position designation. He secured a safe 8-point floor with multiple rushes and catches last week and could see a huge boost if Chris Olave is not cleared from concussion protocol. There are also 6 teams on a Bye this week with a few big-name tight ends missing from the mix. Hill has shown he can put up monster numbers almost any week, but the combination of a good matchup against this Detroit secondary and the lack of receiving weapons for New Orleans this week could make for one of his biggest games of the year.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs. CIN)
Engram has shown one of the best volume-based floors of any tight end this season. He has 5 targets and at least 4 catches in every game so far this season and has 7+ targets in 9 of 11 games this season. The biggest downside has been his allergy to the end zone, but that could end against a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, including the second-most yards overall. This is a great matchup for Engram and the Jaguars as they look to fight for their division and a potential 1 seed.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Marquise Brown (ARZ vs. PIT) vs. Joey Porter Jr.
A lot is working against Brown this week as he is walking into a tough matchup against Porter and the Steelers defense. Brown has seen a big dropoff with the return of Kyler Murray this season and has not seen a high target share with most of the offense going through Trey McBride. Porter has been on an island against Ja'Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, and Amari Cooper in recent weeks and played very well. Brown has already slipped in the rankings with his lack of targets and could find himself on your bench this week in a tough matchup against Porter.
WR Christian Watson (GB vs. KC) vs. L'Jarius Sneed
Watson finally had a breakout game last week and looked every bit of the receiver he was as a rookie. Jordan Love made accurate passes, and Watson even found the end zone. This may be short-lived as he will have a tough matchup against Sneed this week. The Chiefs have been using Sneed as a shadow corner for the past 10 weeks, and we should not expect anything different against Watson and the Packers. Sneed is allowing just 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 20% of the time. He is leading this secondary and is acting as a lockdown corner. Downgrade Watson this week, with Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed both seeing upgrades.
WR Jauan Jennings (SF vs. PHI) vs. Bradley Roby
Jennings is rarely considered in starting territory with all of the other weapons for the 49ers. However, there may be a few people inclined to sneak him in with how bad the Philadelphia secondary has been. That should be as far as that thought goes, as Roby has been an asset at slot corner. He is allowing just 0.07 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 12% of the time. Roby has been one of the lone bright spots and should see those numbers continue as teams try and exploit the outside coverage. Jennings should stay on the Free Agent wire where he belongs, even with the matchup against Philadelphia.
WR Tank Dell (HOUS vs. DEN) vs. Patrick Surtain II
Dell has been a major breath of fresh air for Houston with C.J. Stroud. The rookie duo is on pace to smash several records and have played extremely well in recent weeks. This week will be a true test with Surtain in coverage and a surging Denver defense. Surtain has rebounded since that fateful Miami matchup and is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 17% of the time. Denver has been sitting back and taking the ball away at a high rate, and Stroud showed he can make ill-advised throws last week. Downgrade Dell a little this week in what should be one of the toughest tests of the season for the rookie receiver.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs. CLE) vs. Greg Newsome II
There has been a major falloff with Kupp this season, and he is walking into the toughest matchup in the NFL. Cleveland passed the Jets for the fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers last week. Only 4 receivers have reached 13 fantasy points against this squad, and they are allowing just a 53% catch rate. Cleveland is a nightmare matchup for anyone, and Kupp should not be viewed as anything but a WR3/FLEX option this week. Matthew Stafford looked good last week, and the return of Kryen Williams got the offense going. However, that is not going to extend to the passing game this week.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs. DAL) vs. DaRon Bland
Bland continues to impress and lead this Dallas secondary. Dallas, as a whole, is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and is playing man coverage at a rate of 66% this season. Both Lockett and D.K. Metcalf should be downgraded this week, with both outside corners allowing under 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap. This defense will try to get after Geno Smith and make life a nightmare in the backfield. Downgrade all receivers in this matchup.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs. CLE)
It was a big swing and a miss, including Higbee in this spot last week, but his 2-touchdown performance is the exception and not the rule. Since the return of Cooper Kupp, Higbee had just 29 yards until last week. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that is allowing the fewest receiving fantasy points in the NFL. They have shut down nearly everyone they have played, with just four players having 13 fantasy points. Cleveland has allowed just 227 yards to tight ends all season. Do not chase the points with Higbee this week.
TE Logan Thomas (WAS vs. MIA)
The string of safe floors with Thomas ended last week with just 2 catches for 15 yards in a game where Washington had to throw the ball early and often. Miami has not been a force against tight ends this season but has done enough to limit the damage. Thomas should keep a floor of 7-9 points but does not have touchdown upside. Thomas has been trending down in recent weeks and can be left on benches unless he is the only option.