This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs TB) vs Carlton Davis III
In previous years, this would have been a marquee matchup of strength against strength. However, this season, everything is different, and Hopkins takes a major edge over Davis. Even with Will Levis under center, Hopkins has excelled with the rookie looking his way 10+ times per game. Davis is struggling mightily on the other side and currently allows 0.63 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted 22% of the time. Davis is being asked to shadow the opponent's top receiver, and his numbers are paying the price. If Levis can piece together again this week, Hopkins could easily have a top-10 finish at receiver.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs WAS) vs Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
Seattle had a tough showing against Baltimore last week, and everyone seems frustrated. Geno Smith could not find his mark against a stout Ravens defense, but that could all change this week against Washington. The Commanders are not playing well in the secondary, and the weakest link has been Forbes by far. He currently allows 0.57 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 27% of the time. Jaxon Smith-Njigba also has a great matchup in the slot against Benjamin St-Juste. Look for Seattle to right the ship this week with a strong performance from their receivers.
WR Michael Pittman Jr (IND vs NE) vs J.C. Jackson
The Colts continue to be a mystery. They have scored a lot of points in recent weeks and have thrown the ball well with Garnder Minshew under center. This week, Pittman gets a great matchup on the outside against Jackson. The New England secondary falls in the middle of the pack as a whole, but Jackson has been picked on to the tune of 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 27% of the time. The Colts have the better offense and should be able to put up points against this defense. Look for Pittman to lead the way again in what had become a high-scoring aerial attack.
WR Christian Watson (GB vs PIT) vs Levi Wallace
Green Bay is struggling in the Jordan Love era so far. He has not been consistent, and accuracy has been the biggest issue. Watson has also struggled since returning from injury and has not found the end zone at the same clip he did as a rookie. That could change this week with a great matchup against Wallace on the outside. Wallace is currently allowing 0.51 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted a team-high 27% of the time. If Love can get the ball out accurately, this could be the breakout game we have been waiting for.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs JAX) vs Tyson Campbell
The numbers for Jacksonville appear all over the place. They currently allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers but the most to outside receivers. They have faced low volume this year but have struggled mightily against the outside. Campbell has allowed five different receivers to surpass 19 fantasy points and is allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap. The outside receivers for the 49ers should be upgraded this week in a great matchup for the perimeter.
WR Diontae Johnson (PIT vs GB) vs Jaire Alexander
Alexander has been an elite cover corner for many years, and he still has a lot left in the tank. However, from a fantasy standpoint, he has not been as dominant this season. He currently allows 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. There is a lot of grumbling from George Pickens in Pittsburgh while Johnson silently continues to be solid. He found the endzone for the first time in nearly two years last week and is primed for another good game this week with a matchup against Alexander.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs DEN)
Kincaid has completely taken over at tight end for the Bills. He led the team with 38 routes, 11 targets, 10 catches, and was second with 81 yards last week. Kincaid has scored 15+ fantasy points since taking over the starting duties and is walking into a prime matchup against a Denver defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing tight ends and the 3rd most fantasy points. He is pushing Sam LaPorta for best rookie tight end and is making the most of his opportunity.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs CAR)
Kmet has one of the highest ceilings for tight ends right now. He had everything stacked against him last week and still finished with 6 catches for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kmet has topped 15 fantasy points in four of his last six games, with the only issue being not scoring above 3 in the other two of that stretch. Kmet has a low floor but a very high ceiling. Carolina has not allowed a lot of production overall to opposing tight ends, but they are allowing completions at a high rate. Look for Kmet to sniff out the end zone and put up another solid fantasy week.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Davante Adams (LV vs NYJ) vs Sauce Gardner
The Jets' defense has been elite against receivers again this season. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers overall, the fewest to the perimeter, and third-fewest to the slot. Adams has seen a steep decline in production in recent weeks and has seen more targets go to Jakobi Meyers. Gardner continues his elite play and is currently allowing 0.23 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 14% of the time. Adams is an elite talent and should not be benched, but we can temper expectations for him this week.
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs BAL) vs Marlon Humphrey
Baltimore is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL right now and that is in large part due to the secondary being healthy and at full strength. Humphrey leads the way and is limiting receivers to 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 13% of the time. Cooper had a big game against Seattle last week but is going to struggle to find room against this Baltimore defense. Downgrade the entire Cleveland offense in this divisional matchup.
WR Jordan Addison (MIN vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
Despite all of the injuries, Minnesota continues to find ways to win right now, and Addison has been a big part of that. He should see a bump in targets this week with K.J. Osborn injured. However, that may not matter with a stingy New Orleans' secondary as a matchup. Lattimore continues his elite play as a cover corner and should see a lot of Addison this week. Lattimore is currently allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. It will be hard to predict what will happen with Joshua Dobbs under center, but the edge should be given to Lattimore and the Saints.
WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs DEN) vs Fabian Moreau
Denver is returning from a bye week and, just before that, an inspiring performance on defense against Kansas City. Stefon Diggs will have to contend with shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain II, which will put Davis against Moreau for most of the game. Davis was shut out last week despite a few targets and will not find things easier against Denver. Moreau currently allows 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 12% of the time. The only saving grace could be it is a home game for Davis, and his home vs away splits are enormous. However, Davis should still be downgraded going into this tough matchup.
WR Kyle Pitts (ATL vs ARZ) vs Garrett Williams
It is almost baffling what Arthur Smith is doing with his weapons in Atlanta, but that is a different article. Pitts has more or less been moved to the slot with Jonnu Smith taking more and more of the tight end snaps. Normally this would feel like a good thing since Pitts is athletic and a great route runner. However, this walks him into the toughest matchup of the game against Williams. The slot corner has held opponents to just 0.13 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. We all keep waiting for the Falcons to figure it out with Pitts, but that is unlikely to happen with a tough matchup this week.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs CLE) vs Martin Emerson Jr
Cleveland and Baltimore will be a defensive struggle this week. Both secondaries have been elite with the Browns' pass rush being one of the best in the league as well. Lamar Jackson has found a favorite weapon to go with Mark Andrews in Flowers, but he draws the tough coverage from Emerson this week. Emerson is allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. This could be a very low-scoring game with the receiving groups for both teams downgraded from a fantasy standpoint.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs BAL)
Despite the recent success of double-digit points in 3 straight games, Njoku will be brought back down to reality this week against a stout Baltimore defense. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest yards, the second-fewest fantasy points per game, and just a single touchdown to the position. He also will have to contend with Deshaun Watson who has resulted in 7 or fewer points in 3 of the 4 starts together. Njoku could and should be a big part of this offense, but Watson has a habit of not looking for his tight ends. With emerging younger players at the position, it may be time to move on from Njoku.
TE Cade Otton (TB vs TEN)
Otton is a very popular add after a 23-point performance last week, but it may not be wise to chase the points in a tough matchup this week. Tennessee has allowed a single tight end to have double-digit points, and that was Mark Andrews with 10.9. There are so many weapons in the Tampa Bay offense that Otton is just as likely to have 0 points as he is to have 10. Unless he shows to be consistently used going forward, Otton can be held for now and should be downgraded in a tough matchup against the Titans this week.