This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs. PHI) vs. Darius Slay
Despite the overall inequality of teams, McLaurin has had the Eagles’ number since coming into the league. The young receiver is averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game in 9 contests, and it has not mattered who they put in coverage. James Bradberry and Slay have worked to shadow McLaurin in the past, but neither has succeeded. McLaurin has also exceeded 20+ fantasy points in four of the nine matchups and should see a combination of Slay and Bradberry on the outside for 80% of his perimeter snaps. The Eagles’ defense has been elite against the run but is currently allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Start McLaurin with confidence this week.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs. ARZ) vs. Marco Wilson
Arizona has struggled in the secondary all season. Between poor play and injuries, they allow the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo had 16+ fantasy points against this secondary. Flowers has quickly become the favorite target of Lamar Jackson and is excelling at both stretching the field and the quick underneath plays that have his volume at an all-time high. We saw a taste of what this offense can do last week and expect it to continue with another great matchup against the Cardinals this week.
WR DJ Moore (CHI vs. LAC) vs. Michael Davis
The trend of starting receivers against the Chargers continues this week with Moore. Even with Tyson Bagent under center again this week, the holes in the secondary have been enormous. The Chargers are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, with Davis leading the way with 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap. Moore has shown what he is capable of on the outside and has a great opportunity to go off again this week.
WR George Pickens (PIT vs. JAX) vs. Tyson Campbell
Jacksonville has been an enigma on defense so far this year. They have had some very good games and other games where the secondary has totally collapsed. They are currently allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 3rd-most to perimeter receivers. Campbell has been picked on regularly and allows 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap. Tre Herndon has been the best at slot corner and should lock up Allen Robinson. Look for both Diontae Johnson and Pickens to have big days on the outside.
WR Calvin Ridley (JAX vs. PIT) vs. Levi Wallace
Ridley was a major letdown for fantasy managers last week, but he should rebound with a great matchup this week. Wallace has been absolutely burned on the right side, allowing 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 28% of the time. The Pittsburgh defense only works well when they can get after the quarterback and rush throws. Look for Trevor Lawrence to roll out of the pocket and find quick throws underneath or in the seam to pick this secondary apart. Ridley is a prime bounce-back candidate this week with a great matchup against Wallace on the outside.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs. KC) vs. Jaylen Watson
It is well known that the Broncos have struggled against Kansas City in recent years. Denver has won a Super Bowl more recently than they have beaten the Chiefs. However, that does not change the matchup Sutton has on the outside against Watson. Russell Wilson has been finding Sutton at a high rate in recent weeks, including a touchdown against Green Bay last week. Watson is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted a team-high 27% of the time. This game could turn into a shoot-out with Sutton getting fed the ball early and often.
TE Sam LaPorta (DET vs. LV)
LaPorta has been one of the best tight ends in the league this season. He is coming off a string of games with less than double-digit points in 2 out of his last 3, but that does not diminish what he has done so far this year. LaPorta averages 17.3 points per game at home instead of 9.3 on the road. Detroit gets a home prime-time game this week against the Raiders and will look to bounce back after a rough outing against Baltimore. Look for LaPorta to be highly involved this week and one of the top-scoring tight ends.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs. TB)
Dawson Knox has been ruled out this week, and rookie Kincaid is going to get the chance to show what he can do. He is coming off his best game of the season with 15.5 fantasy points and should see his role grow in the offense as a whole and the red zone. Tampa Bay ranks near the middle of the pack against tight ends and is not the best matchup, but Kincaid is going to get his looks, and the expanded role could land him in the top 15 at the position this week.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs. CLE) vs. Martin Emerson Jr
The Browns' defense has been their strongest asset so far this year. The corners have locked down the likes of San Francisco and Cincinnati in recent weeks. Emerson has led the way with 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 18% of the time. D.K. Metcalf continues to deal with an injury, and it is still up in the air as to whether he will play. Lockett will get the lockdown treatment on the outside if Metcalf does not go. Look for the Cleveland defense to keep up their elite play this week against Lockett and the Seahawks.
WR Michael Pittman Jr (IND vs. NO) vs. Marshon Lattimore
The Colts have done their best to keep this offense going. They got Jonathan Taylor back just to lose Anthony Richardson for the season. Things will be even tougher this week against the Saints' defense. Lattimore normally shadows the top receiver and should see a lot of Pittman this week. Lattimore is currently allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap with Paulson Adebo allowing 0.19 on the other side. The Colts will find it difficult to throw the ball this week in what could be a low-scoring game.
WR Julio Jones (PHI vs. WAS) vs. Danny Johnson
Jones recently signed with the Eagles to chase a Super Bowl ring and to try and form an elite trio of receivers. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have solid matchups this week with Jones getting the worst of it in the slot. Johnson has not played a lot yet this season but is allowing just 0.07 fantasy points per coverage snap. Jones had 1 catch on 1 target in his debut last week and does not figure to play a big role for a few weeks. There may be some fireworks before the season is over, but Jones cannot be trusted yet.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs. ATL) vs. A.J. Terrell
Tennessee has had a tough time on offense this season and has recently made almost all of its players available via trade. Hopkins has not filled the hole left when they traded A.J. Brown, and Derek Henry is finding it harder to run against the stacked boxes. This week, Hopkins gets the shadow treatment from Terrell. Even if he escapes to the other side, Jeff Okudah has played even better than Terrell to start the season. Okudah is allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage snap with Terrell allowing 0.30. Hopkins will continue to get enough volume to be relevant but should have expectations tempered with the tough matchup.
WR Michael Thomas (NO vs. IND) vs. Jaylon Jones
The New Orleans offense struggles to score touchdowns and consistently push the ball down the field. Alvin Kamara is on pace to lead the team in targets and receptions this season at the expense of Thomas and Chris Olave. Add up the offensive troubles and mix in a tough matchup against Jones, and Thomas may be in for a very long game. Jones is allowing just 0.10 fantasy points per coverage snap and has been one of the best corners for the Colts. Lower your expectations for receivers on both sides of the ball in this game.
WR Marquise Brown (ARZ vs. BAL) vs. Marlon Humphrey
Arizona was playing inspired football to start the season, but injuries and lack of depth are starting to catch up with them. With James Connor on the IR, this team has really struggled to move the ball. Brown is by far their best pass catcher and will see a lot of Humphrey this week who is allowing just 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap. Baltimore has started to bounce back from their troubles earlier this season and almost entirely shut down a high-powered Detroit offense last week. Avoid the Arizona offense right now at all costs.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs. DAL)
The return of Cooper Kupp has all but killed Higbee’s value in fantasy. He has just nine targets over the past three weeks and continues to see his role diminish as Kupp and Puka Nacua hog all of the targets. Higbee also has a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed just one tight end to score double-digit points so far this year. Higbee is a cut candidate at this point as the Rams continue to move away from using him.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs. SEA)
The ceiling on Njoku is very low at this point. He has slightly rebounded with double-digit points in two out of his last three games, but he is walking into a tough matchup against Seattle this week. The Seahawks have not allowed a single touchdown to tight ends so far this year and have limited their catches and yards as well. Njoku is averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game and cannot be trusted now.