Fantasy gamers have just four weeks left to make or break a playoff berth. Most leagues have trade deadlines (for better or for worse), a milestone that often resides on the calendar near Thanksgiving.
Across this writer's dynasty leagues, trading volume has dramatically decreased in the past five years. The reason is simple. Fantasy gamers are unable to identify players for whom they would trade. Some attribute this to being "player agnostic."
Conversely, demand for draft picks is way up. A stopgap solution at running back for the remainder of the season, like Jerome Ford, might no longer command a late second-round pick in return. A first-round pick shouldn't be expected for any safe starting quarterback (e.g., Derek Carr). The delta between the pick's extrinsic value – its utility to net a future fantasy point producer – and its market value is the premium on liquidity, or what Footballguy Adam Harstad might call "flexibility".
The path to increasing a dynasty roster's value is to pursue assets in lower demand. A typical dynasty league has only three assets: players, picks, and roster spots. As noted above, picks are commanding a premium. Roster spots are finally getting their due. Dynasty gamers are coming around to the reality that a trade package in return for a stud is a sucker's haul. Concentrating roster spots on elite players makes the roster a more durable portfolio and opens opportunities to speculate on flyers.
Dynasty roster rebuilders must pivot to players to grow their rosters' value. The following trade targets are likely to hold, or better yet, gain value in 2024.
Focal Points
LB Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs' defensive captain was a top-five IDP in all formats as a sophomore in 2022 but has lost most of 2023 to injury. He's played just enough this season to raise doubts about his continued productivity (9.7 fantasy points per game versus 14.3 in 2022). Bolton is one of two drafted linebackers under contract in Kansas City for 2024. He'll easily resume his role at the forefront of the Chiefs' defense and IDP ranks.
DL Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers' defense was thin going into the season. Injuries to key personnel have rendered the unit toothless. With little help rushing the passer, Brian Burns has recorded 4.5 quarterback sacks in 8 games and ranks 63rd on Footballguys' leaderboard of defensive linemen while playing on a fifth-year option. Burns finished 2022 18th and is likely to rebound next season, perhaps on the franchise tag or another team as an unrestricted free agent.
LB Troy Andersen, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' second-round pick of 2022 opened his sophomore season as a starter and full-time linebacker. His replacement, Nate Landman, has played effectively in a part-time role but is a limited player who's no threat to Troy Andersen once healthy in 2024.
LB Nakobe Dean, Philadelphia Eagles
Like Andersen, Nakobe Dean was to be a first-time starter in his second season. He, too, is lost for the season, only to be replaced by a productive, low-cost player. The Eagles' third-rounder from 2022 should return as a starter in 2024 without question.
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Package Parts
Aging Vets on the Mend
New England Edge defender Matthew Judon and Atlanta defensive tackle Grady Jarrett suffered serious injuries in 2023. Judon might return in December, but Jarrett is done for the season. Neither player showed signs of slowing down when healthy; each is under contract for 2024. Both are on the wrong side of 30 for the dynasty game and should, therefore, come at a discount in trade.
Rookies Awaiting Their Turn
Dynasty gamers are unlikely to part with rookies at reduced prices after just 10 games. These rookies have not yet seen much of the field but nevertheless make good trade targets from contenders.
- LB Daiyan Henley, Los Angeles Chargers
- LB Drew Sanders, Denver Broncos
- LB Trenton Simpson, Baltimore Ravens
- DL Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers
- DL Myles Murphy, Cincinnati Bengals
- DL Will McDonald IV, New York Jets
- DL B.J. Ojulari, Arizona Cardinals
Among underutilized rookies, seventh-overall pick Tyree Wilson stands out as the highest-upside option. The gap in typical fantasy rookie drafts between Wilson and third-overall pick Will Anderson (Texans), the top two edge defenders in the NFL draft, was remarkable – as much as two full rounds. Wilson missed much of the Raiders' summer program, reps he needed as a raw prospect. With Maxx Crosby opposite him, Wilson could explode onto the scene in 2024.
Throw-Ins
Sophomore Sleepers
While dynasty gamers firmly hold their rookies, their grip on second-year players who aren't producing weakens. Pass rushers, in particular, need time to develop, and contenders may lack the patience or the roster space to hold them. David Ojabo and Josh Paschal have missed most of 2023 with injury. Sam Williams is gradually earning reps on a talented defense that includes an aging DeMarcus Lawrence.
- LB Leo Chenal, Kansas City Chiefs
- LB Channing Tindall, Miami Dolphins
- LB Brian Asamoah II, Minnesota Vikings
- DL David Ojabo, Baltimore Ravens
- DL Sam Williams, Dallas Cowboys
- DL Josh Paschal, Detroit Lions
- DL Devonte Wyatt, Green Bay Packers
Veterans with an Eye Toward March
Each year, IDPs emerge from player movement in free agency. Linebackers Robert Spillane and Azeez Al-Shaair transferred to teams offering opportunities to compete for the green dot. Meanwhile, Terrel Bernard capitalized on the opening created by Tremaine Edmunds's departure. The following players could benefit from a change of scenery or a change on the depth chart ahead of them due to an expiring contract or cap casualty.
- LB Willie Gay Jr, Kansas City Chiefs
- DL Arden Key, Tennessee Titans
- DL Ogbo Okoronkwo, Cleveland Browns
- LB Jamien Sherwood, New York Jets
- LB Oren Burks, San Francisco 49ers
- S Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers
In Conclusion
Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but also why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.