5 RBs to Sell In Dynasty Before Free Agency

The 2023 NFL off-season is nearly in full swing. On March 13, the NFL's legal tampering period begins, and that means teams can start negotiating with free agents and agreeing to terms.

Over the past few seasons, we've seen free-agent signings completely change the fantasy outlook of a backfield - I'm looking at you, Jamaal WIlliams. The year's running back free agent class is stacked with highly talented players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard - just to name a few. A market with this much talent means that money could (and likely will) be thrown around at the running back position. With free agency looming, savvy Dynasty managers should be looking to make moves before the proverbial hammer falls on March 13th.

In anticipation of a strong free agent market, let's look at five running backs that Dynasty managers should be trading away before NFL Free Agency. (Spoiler alert: Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are not on this list, even though they should be. I wanted to avoid obvious candidates - aging running backs that likely won't return high-end value in a trade.)

Running Backs to Sell Now in Dynasty

5. Rachaad White (RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just released Leonard Fournette, their leading rusher from 2022 - since then, White's value has skyrocketed. Like most rookies, White saw a big increase in opportunity and production in the later portion of the season. During his best 7-game stretch, from weeks 10-17, White was the RB29 in half-PPR points per game and the RB19 in PPR points per game. White saw most of his value in the receiving game, catching passes from Tom Brady - who has since retired... for real this time.

It's no secret that Brady loved passing to his running backs all throughout his career. In 2022, the Buccaneers RBs accounted for 178 total targets (34%), the second-most in the league. It's important to note that 57% of White's fantasy points in PPR format came from his receiving work. Without Brady, it's plausible that the RB targets (and the offense as a whole) will decline. I fully expect the Buccaneers to add a couple of RBs to their backfield via Free Agency and the NFL Draft.

Ideal Asking Price: Late 1st-Round Rookie Pick

Is Rachaad White a Top-20 Dynasty RB?

— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) March 2, 2023

4. Joe Mixon (RB - Cincinnati Bengals)

Mixon seems like a sell candidate every spring, and then he magically works his way back into our starting lineups by week 1. Mixon has seen his usage and fantasy production dip over the last few years as the Bengals have relied heavily on Joe Burrow and the passing game. The 26-year-old running back did finish top-nine in fantasy points per game in both PPR and half-PPR formats. But don't let the end result fool you. Mixon had a massive Week 9 performance that accounted for 23% of his PPR and 25% of his half-PPR fantasy points.

What's most concerning is that the Bengals can save $7 million in cap space by cutting Mixon - which is likely to happen, considering the team needs to sign players like Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase to contract extensions. If Mixon joins the free agent market, all bets are off on him being a top-15 fantasy RB going forward.

Ideal Asking Price: Mid to Late 1st Round Rookie Pick

3. Javonte Williams (RB - Denver Broncos)

Williams suffered a brutal knee injury where he ruptured his ACL, LCL, & PCL. That type of injury comes with a very long recovery timetable. Injuries like this tend to make teams a bit more cautious with their players. I'm not a medical professional, so I sought the expertise of someone who is - Footballguys staffer, Dr. Vignesh Doraiswamy. He had this say regarding Williams' return to football: "The key here is that not all ACL injuries should be considered equal. There are other ligaments that are there for stability and support, and in the same way, there are also other structures there, like the meniscus. Given that there were three different major structures injured for Williams and the fact that even folks who come back after ACL injuries (specifically talking about running backs here ) are really only back to pre-injury form in year two after the injury. Unless your comfortable holding on to him with potentially very mediocre production for 2023-2024, I would not take the risk with him at all, and I would sell him for whatever I could get."

The Broncos recently hired Sean Payton, a coach who had utilized a multiple running back system in New Orleans for years. Even a superstar like Alvin Kamara was relegated to a 53% snap share during Payton's time in New Orleans. Don't be surprised if the Broncos add multiple running backs to their offense over the next couple of months via free agency and the NFL Draft.

Ideal Asking Price: Top-7 Rookie Pick

Who would you rather have in Dynasty?

— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) March 3, 2023

2. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB - New England Patriots)

Stevenson had the best season of his young career in 2022. In PPR scoring formats, he finished as the RB9 or RB12 on a points-per-game basis, but the production was volatile. In 2022, Stevenson had five weekly finishes outside the Top 40 at his position - but he also had seven weeks in the Top 10 at his position. If you dig a little deeper, you'll notice that five of Stevenson's seven top-10 finishes occurred when Damien Harris was either inactive, left the game due to an injury, or returning to his first action after an injury. There was a very obvious causality in Stevenson's fantasy production in 2022 - he got a lot of work when his running mate couldn't handle the load.

There's no doubt that Stevenson has talent, but the Patriots don't utilize a bell-cow running back in their system - they just don't. Over the last decade, Stevenson is the only running back who has gotten more than 37% of the team's running-back snaps. This could be seen as a shift in philosophy or an endorsement of talent. But I'm willing to bet that Bill Belichick hasn't changed his stripes, and the Patriots will return to deploying an arsenal of players from their backfield in 2023.

Ideal Asking Price: Top-7 Rookie Pick

1. Bijan Robinson (RB - Rookie Prospect)

Bijan Robinson is the Dynasty RB1 - or at least some of come to that conclusion already. I get it, Robinson is a remarkable prospect, and we rarely see prospects of his caliber. But that's exactly what he is now, a prospect. His value seems to have already peaked without ever taking a single snap in the NFL. I think dynasty managers have let the lore of Bijan Robinson overtake their minds a bit here.

Dynasty is an ever-changing machine. Values of players go up and down, but when a player has potentially reached their perceived height of value without ever taking a snap, it makes me stop and think. I ask myself: "Am I competing in this league by adding this player, or do I need more?" - If I need more, I then ask: "Can I get plus value for him in a trade?" - If I can, then it's probably time to make a deal. Each Dynasty roster is constructed differently, so I polled my Twitter followers to give you some ideas of trades you could make involving Robinson, the presumed 1.01 pick for 2023 rookie drafts.

Ideal Asking Prices: Ken Walker III + '24 Rookie 1st Rd Pick or Jonathan Taylor + '23 Rookie 2nd Rd Pick or Chris Olave + '23 Rookie 1st Rd Pick

Which side would you prefer in Dynasty?

— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) March 3, 2023