Over the next few weeks, we will ask our staff a single question on a variety of topics ranging from a huge news event to a tough fantasy decision or player evaluation.
Last time, we looked at the Jaguars WRs.
If you like this format, come back for another Question of the Day. Today, we look at quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Everyone remembers Tua Tagovailoa's concussion issues in 2022. Over the offseason, he has reportedly taken steps to help avoid a repeat in 2023: taking jiu-jitsu to learn how to fall correctly, increasing his muscularity to better withstand hits, and changing to a helmet designed to better protect the wearer's head.
Here's the question we asked our staff.
How many games do you think Tagovailoa will play this season? Where do you rank him now among QBs? Is he undervalued, correctly valued, or overvalued right now?
And here's the quick answer:
- The average of projected games played - 13.5 games
- Most common valuation answer - QB13.3
Clearly, there is still some worry over his ability to stay healthy all season.
Here are the full answers.
Jeff Tefertiller: Tua Tagovailoa can be a title-winner if he plays the entire season. I expect him to play 11 games, as the concussions and injury history are concerning. I have him ranked at QB14, which is close to his ADP. Without the health worries, I would rank Tagovailoa in the top 9 at the position. The Dolphins offense will improve in year two under Mike McDaniel. There is a big-time upside, given the weapons at his disposal. In terms of value, Tagovailoa is correctly valued right now, with the risk already baked into the price. Tagovailoa is the ideal quarterback if a fantasy drafter is waiting until late to select a quarterback. He can be paired with Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, or Geno Smith, all with non-fantasy-starter ADPs in most leagues.
Matt Waldman: I am projecting Tagovailoa to play 14 games as my QB21 with a high ceiling of weekly value but not dependable to draft as a starter. I hope Tagovailoa never misses another game and plays another 15 years, but I think it’s wise to expect him to miss at least 3-5 games.
The effort to supplement his training with a focus on tumbling skills is intelligent and admirable. Is it too late in his development to incorporate these new lessons on the field?
Successful NFL players are instinctive movers in some ways. In others, they’ve worked on the movements until they can execute to the speed of instinct. With the latter, that usually occurs over a period of years beginning at a much younger age.
I hope Tagovailoa can incorporate skills into his game that may require a ton of repetition in order to execute at the elite speed and in unrehearsed variations that the game demands. As GMs, we need proof he can rather than presuming he will.
Tagovailoa is a top-10 fantasy QB with a top-5 upside when on the field. The injury history places him outside the top 15 options.
Jeff Haseley: My guess is that Tua Tagovailoa will play 12 games this season, but it could be fewer if he sustains another concussion that could threaten to end his career. I have him ranked as QB15, which I feel is correctly valued. He could finish higher than that, or it could be lower. The possibility that he is unable to finish the season is baked into his lower ranking. When he is playing at his best, he is a top-tier passing quarterback on one of the best offenses in the league. If he can manage to stay clear of injury, especially a damaging concussion, he'll likely finish much higher, but the uncertain future is what brings him down my rankings.
Nick Whalen: Only 8 QBs started all 17 games last year, and 16 started at least 15 games. Tua Tagovailoa adds in many different injury risks from his career, and I'd expect him to play in 13 games in 2023. I have him ranked as the QB15 right now, but he's a top-10 option when starting. He's valued correctly, as the FF community is already taking his injury risk into account.