Prop Talk Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 9 Recap- 2-3:

We are sort of just trading back and forth 3-2 and 2-3 weeks. Since Week 4, the article is exactly 15-15, which based on the juice of these props isn’t good enough. Let’s try to get back on the winning week this week.

Derek Carr Over 252.5 Passing Yards- Loss
C.J. Stroud Over 246.5 Passing Yards- Win
Deshaun Watson Under 15.5 Rushing Yards- Loss
Bijan Robinson Under 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards- Win
Adam Thielen Over 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards- Loss

Week 10 Props

Will Levis Over 222.5 Passing Yards

This one seems like a trap, but I’m going to fall right into it. Will Levis has been good in his two starts this season as he has 238 and 262 yards. Now, this week, he takes on a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL, just a week after allowing 470 yards to C.J. Stroud and the number is only 222.5? The team is making a strong effort to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins, while Levis has also done a good job distributing the ball to receivers such as Kyle Phillips, Chig Okonkwo, and Derrick Henry. This one is just confusing why it is so low? For what it’s worth Footballguys has Levis projected for 194 passing yards, which would indicate this should be a strong underplay, but I believe in Levis and what the Titans are going to try to turn into this season.

Aaron Jones Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

Aaron Jones finally seems as if he is getting close to healthy. After suffering the Week 1 hamstring injury, Jones has not completed a full practice this season. However, the Packers gave the ball to Jones 24 times last week compared to A.J. Dillon’s 11 touches. The team should strongly consider moving on from Dillon, as he is just a guy at this point who averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Pittsburgh is allowing the 4th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season as nine running backs have topped 54.5 yards against this team this year.

Bijan Robinson Under 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

At this point, we are going to continue to play this one every single week until it does not hit or if the coaching staff shows that they are increasing his touches. Bijan’s rushing-only prop is 55 yards, which assumes that he will add an additional 25 yards receiving on top of his rushing prop. The issue is that with Taylor Heinicke, Bijan has not been involved in the passing game at all. Even with Drake London out last week, Bijan had just two receptions for eight yards in a game in which the Falcons scored 28 points. This continues to be a true 50/50 split between Allgeier and Robinson, and until that changes, there is just not enough volume in this backfield to justify going over 80.5 this week.