The legal tampering period always announces the beginning of the new NFL league year, and then as the clock strikes 2:00 pm on March 15, free agency opens in a flurry. Teams rush to sign their new players and announce them to the world. In the ensuing chaos, both interested fans of the NFL and excitable partakers of the great game of fantasy football speculate as to how those new players will impact their favorite teams and their fantasy rosters. So let's dive into the running back group that signed deals so far in free agency and see what kind of impact they'll have!
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Sanders left the Philadelphia Eagles to sign a four-year, $25 million deal with $13 million guaranteed with the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles didn't show any interest in resigning him despite Sanders' pleas on social media for the team to do so, but it was still surprising for the assumed top option on the market that did not get franchise tagged to only get an average annual value (AAV) of just over $6 million a year.
After running for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career last season, Sanders steps into a running back room that only contains Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear as the other backs, so expect Sanders to command the early down role that he had in Philadelphia last season. We know from watching that he won't contribute much in the passing game, so his upside will always be capped, especially in this offense that will be starting a rookie quarterback and Adam Thielen as the current WR1.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Top-25 RB, but should not be taken before Round 8 in leagues.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Another big running back domino dropped, as Montgomery chose to join his former rival in the Lions after spending his rookie contract playing for the Chicago Bears. He signed a 3-year, $18 million deal with $11 million guaranteed and profiles as an upgraded version of the role that Jamaal Williams played for the Lions last season. Montgomery has vacillated between average and below average production and efficiency during his career thus far but really could thrive in this role given that despite fellow backfield member D'Andre Swift's presence, the Lions have not shown a lot of warmth towards Swift this last season and could look to Montgomery to take a sizable role in the offense.
Montgomery is big enough at 222 lbs to take goal-line work but has also shown enough in the passing game to snag some passing down work in what should be a high-octane offense.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Top-18 running back should be drafted in the mid-rounds as an RB2 option with the possibility of sneaking into RB1 territory for multiple weeks.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
As Montgomery joined the Lions, it caused Williams to seek a new team as well, and he ended up signing with the Saints on a three-year, $12 million deal with $8.15 million guaranteed. Coming off a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season where he led the NFL in rushing scores, Williams joins a team that could use some help in the rushing department, given that they are bracing for a possible suspension of its franchise back Alvin Kamara. The Saints also just signed Derek Carr and restructured Michael Thomas, so this offense might not be as bad as people think in an NFC South division begging for a team to step up and win it with some urgency.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Top-24 running back that will be drafted in the back end of a lot of drafts until we find out what is happening with Kamara.
Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos
Perine signed a two-year, $7.5 million contract with $3 million guaranteed to play backup to Javonte Williams on the Broncos, but the hidden layer to this deal is that Perine played better than Joe Mixon in a lot of areas last season. He could easily find a path to seeing a solid amount of touches for this offense this season, depending on what the Broncos decide to do further at the position.
Williams is not guaranteed to be ready for Week 1 of the season, so keep an eye on Perine here. He is an excellent Zero RB target in drafts.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: RB4 with a lot of upside given that the Broncos will probably add another body to this backfield, either deeper in free agency or the draft. Draft Perine as a Zero RB option in the mid-teens rounds, and he could also be available on waivers post-draft if they decide to add further help.
Jeff Wilson Jr. And Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
I grouped Wilson and Mostert together here because both re-signed with the Dolphins on two-year deals that are basically one-year contracts with a team option on the other side. Wilson signed for 2/$6 million, while Mostert signed for 2/$5.6 million.
Each player flashed at times but showed limitations the other could cover. We saw Wilson sometimes take the lead in this backfield, but Mostert is still a capable back for fantasy. Each back rushed for almost 900 yards last season and saw at least 35 targets (note that a majority of Wilson's production was in San Francisco), so this profiles out to be a pretty even split workload-wise.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Both backs are RB3 options that should be drafted as such. You will probably be able to grab Mostert a bit later than Wilson, but both should be penciled in for around 175 carries and 30+ targets.
Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles
Penny could be the diamond in the rough of this free agency class after signing for pennies on the dollar (ha, see what I did there?) with the Eagles last week for only $1.35 million and $600,000 guaranteed. This kind of contract doesn't guarantee that he's on the roster come Week 1, but it also sets the Eagles up well if Penny can stay healthy because he has flashed league-winning upside when he is in his NFL career. Among running backs with 100 carries since 2021, Penny ranks first in the NFL in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and rushing yards over expected per carry, and he ranks fourth in rushing yards over expected, per NextGenStats.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: RB3 with high-end RB2 upside. Penny is one of the best pure runners in the NFL when healthy and is an easy pick at the back end of your drafts.
Devin Singletary, Houston Texans
Singletary landed in Houston after not much fanfare during the first week of free agency and left the city with a one-year, $3.75 million deal. It is assumed that he will now share touches with returning running back Dameon Pierce, who had a solid rookie season rushing for nearly 1,000 yards last year.
Looking at this team, Singletary will presumably take more work away from Pierce, both on the ground and through the air, than his predecessors did last season. This could be an ugly timeshare that fantasy players look to avoid.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Back-end RB3, and will probably go off the board in the Round 11-13 range.
Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills
Finally, the signing that everyone wanted to see for fantasy football. Harris joins James Cook and Nyheim Hines in the Bills' running back room on what has not been confirmed but was reported by NESN as being a one-year, $1.7 million deal. Given what we have seen from Harris during his time as a member of the New England Patriots, we can assume that he will be filling the early down role for this team, taking most of the goal-line work, and splitting the rest with Josh Allen.
Harris is a strong, powerful back that uses his one-cut ability to hammer through defensive lines to get yards, and it's been effective for him when he's been able to stay healthy. One of the issues, though, is that apart from his 2021 season, where he played 15 games, he hasn't been completely healthy and has missed at least six games in each of his other three seasons so far. This is one of the best places Harris could have landed due to the role he is expected to assume. If he stays healthy, he should be a great late-round pick in fantasy.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Top-30 RB and is a great flyer in the back rounds of your draft.
Backups
In this section, we'll list the notable backups that have gotten a deal so far in free agency and their value for fantasy football on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the highest and 1 being the lowest.
- Alexander Mattison - Minnesota: 4
- D'Onta Foreman - Chicago: 3.5
- Chase Edmonds - Tampa Bay: 3.5
- Boston Scott - Philadelphia: 3
- Justice Hill - Baltimore: 2.5
- Ronald Jones II - Dallas: 2.5
- James Robinson - New England: 2
- Travis Homer - Chicago: 2
- Mike Boone - Houston: 1.5
- Matt Breida - New York Giants: 1.5
- Corey Clement - Arizona: 1.5
- Trayveon Williams - Cincinnati: 1
- Myles Gaskin - Miami: 1