The New Reality No.213: Projecting 2024 Breakout WRs and TEs

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.213: Projecting 2024 Breakout WRs and TEs Chad Parsons Published 12/20/2023

Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2024:

Tight End

Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks

Why: Fant is one of the best tight end bets in the long-form format of dynasty, especially in tight end-premium formats. Fant was traded from Denver to Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade, and his routes per game immediately waned from 27.6 to 20.6 and are now 19.2 per game in Seattle. The Seahawks' passing game has done Fant no favors with three strong wide receivers and rolling a tight end committee with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Despite changing teams and losing routes, Fant has stayed an efficient player, surpassing 1.35 yards per route run in every NFL season. The best news is Fant is an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason. The hope is, like Evan Engram in recent years, Fant selects his own landing spot to thrive in a prove-it type contract with more of a spotlight role. At his peak in Denver, Fant saw 20-22% targets per route run but dipped to an invisible 12% for Seattle in 2023. Betting on Round 1 tight ends is a sturdy dynasty bet when their value falls. David Njoku is the most recent example who has vaulted to career-best finishes in 2022 and 2023 despite a sluggish career start. Fant offers massive potential from the TE30+ price point entering the offseason, especially in premium formats.

A few December dynasty trades of note for Fant include:

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.

An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Dynasty leagues. If this league is not a Dynasty league, you can edit your leagues here.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

Why: Rice is one of the easy profiles to project for a breakout 2024 season. Rice has been an efficiency maven all season for Kansas City in their committee wide receiver corps. The missing piece has been running more routes to funnel a few more targets his way. Through Week 6, Rice's highest tally of routes in a game was 23. Starting in Week 7, Rice's lowest route total in a game is 20, with 7 of 8 games hitting at least 26 routes. This is a substantial change, yet Rice's efficiency has not waned. A threshold of 2.00 yards per route run is a sticky mark for strong wide receiver play, and Rice, as a Round 2 rookie, has hit the marker in 10 of 14 games this season. Rice is WR12 in PPG since his Week 7 expansion of routes and WR6 over the past month. Rice is already breaking out late in 2023 but has more room to grow into 2024 as the market (WR20-25) lags behind his current production.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Rice include:

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Why: London is marginally more expensive than Rashee Rice in the dynasty market (WR20 or so) and another rock-solid young wide receiver profile who has yet to peak. This season, Atlanta has been a dumpster fire as an offense, considering the three elite profiles added to the skill positions within the top 10 over the past three classes (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson). However, Atlanta faded the quarterback position, and Desmond Ridder has disproved himself as a future starter more than cemented his status, and nearly every offensive category has eroded from 2022 to 2023. London has weathered the proverbial storm. His 1.99 yards per route run this season and 2.03 yards per route run for his two-year career are even more impressive considering the context of Atlanta's quarterback play and lower-volume passing offense.

Considering age, career arc, and Drake London's 2023 season specifically, some of London's comps include:

The floor outcome for 2024 is essentially London's 2023 with 11-13 PPG, with the comps with 55% hitting for 14+ PPG and 27% striking for at least 16 PPG.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for London include:

Find all of Chad Parsons' Footballguys content with the article filter!

Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Chad Parsons

 

The New Reality No.233: Early 2025 NFL Draft Prospects

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

01/01/25 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Season Recap

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

01/01/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trading Post: Season Recap, Trading Rules

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons analyzes the dynasty trading market for strategy, target players, and team-building concepts.

12/24/24 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

12/24/24 Read More
 

Cutting the Cord, Final Waiver Wire Moves: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons outlines fantasy football trade and drop player recommendations to make room for the next breakout player or key bye-week replacement.

12/24/24 Read More
 

The New Reality No.232: Lessons Learned, 2025 Strategy

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

12/24/24 Read More