Three-Game Slate
- Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 41.5
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 42.5
- Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 46
Injury Roundup
- Keaton Mitchell OUT
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts is tied with Josh Allen for the quarterback lead in fantasy points per game (23.1). He's run for 542 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns so far this season. He leads an Eagles offense that ranks fourth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), fourth in Dropback EPA, ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and fifth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Hurts gets to play at home in this one and although the Giants defense has been playing better as of late, this still isn't a matchup to shy away from.
This Ravens at 49ers contest will be one hell of a game. Both teams are going to push each other and Lamar Jackson has as high of upside as any other quarterback in the NFL when pushed. Add in the injury to Keaton Mitchell and Jackson projects to be the Ravens offense both through the air and on the ground. He already leads a Ravens offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play, ninth in PROE, and seventh in EDPF. And while the 49ers defense is strong, that unit does only rank 13th in EPA/Play Allowed and 11th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. They haven't been elite as of late.
Brock Purdy leads a 49ers offense that ranks first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and he ranks fifth in passing yards per game (271.1) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). Purdy has a tough matchup against a strong Ravens defense but he gets to play at home and is surrounded by arguably the best skill player talent in NFL history. The advantage in this one goes to Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco's offense.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey ranks second in opportunities per game (22.3), first in total yards per game (128.6), and first in touchdowns (20). This is certainly not the slate to fade McCaffrey in a super competitive game at home against a Ravens defense that ranks 25th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Saquon Barkley ranks fourth in opportunities per game (21.8) and 14th in total yards per game (91.2). This looks like a decent spot for Barkley to produce against an Eagles defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. Philadelphia's defense has been struggling of late.
D'Andre Swift ranks 14th in opportunities per game (17.4) and received 21 chances last week. This is a good spot for Swift at home against a Giants defense that ranks middle of the pack (16th) in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. The Eagles are 11.5-point favorites.
Interim head coach Antonio Pierce reported Wednesday he expects Josh Jacobs to return this week and Jacobs returned to practice on Friday. Jacobs ranks third in opportunities per game (22.1) and has a decent matchup despite being an underdog on the road against a Chiefs defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Andy Reid reported Isiah Pacheco is good to go this week. Pacheco ranks 13th in the entire NFL in opportunities per game (17.8) and the Chiefs are ten-point home favorites. Pacheco just scored two touchdowns against the Raiders a month ago.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith missed some practice time this week but is off the injury report entirely. Still, this feels like an A.J. Brown week. Brown ranks first in target share (32%), third in targets per route run (27%), fifth in targets per game (10.1), sixth in receptions per game (6.8), and fourth in receiving yards per game (93.9).
Rashee Rice played on a season-high 92% of offensive snaps last week. We have finally made it. Rice is now a full-time wide receiver paired with Patrick Mahomes II and his quarterback has leaned into his talent. Here are Rice's target totals over the past four weeks: 10, 9, 10, and 9. Rice has caught at least seven passes in all four contests and scored in three of the four. He's a lock. Don't overthink this one.
Deebo Samuel is on an absolute heater right now and there's no reason to hop off this train. Here are his touchdown totals over his past three games: 3, 2, and 2. That's insane! His usage shouldn't go anywhere and could actually increase in this uber-competitive game at home against the 11-3 Ravens.
This is a strong time to play Brandon Aiyuk in tournaments after he only caught 3 of 5 targets for 37 yards last week. Prior to that down game, Aiyuk had scored a touchdown and/or gone over 100 receiving yards in six straight games. Aiyuk will be needed in this potential Super Bowl preview.
Davante Adams is a target/volume monster. Here are his target totals over his past five games: 13, 13, 7, 10, and 12. Adams ranks second in targets per route run (28%) and first in target share (32%). He'll see plenty of chances on the road against the Chiefs with the Raiders listed as ten-point underdogs.
Without Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers projects as Lamar Jackson's number-one option. The problem with that is Flowers only caught 1 of 2 targets for 7 yards last week. However, we can benefit from this thanks to recency bias. Flowers had seen ten targets the week before and will be needed in a major way to help the Ravens offense keep up with San Francisco's historic offensive output. Play Flowers in tournaments.
Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt
The Giants are 11.5-point road underdogs and Tommy Devito has a good matchup on tap against a struggling Eagles defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. That puts the low owned tournament Giants wide receivers on the map. The problem is that there are three of them. Offensive snap percentages the past two weeks: Darius Slayton 93% and 95%, Wan'Dale Robinson 79% and 85%, and Jalin Hyatt 64% and 71%. Routes run the past two weeks: Darius Slayton 70, Wan'Dale Robinson 65, and Jalin Hyatt 59. Targets the past two weeks: Darius Slayton 10, Wan'Dale Robinson 11, and Jalin Hyatt 6. Pick your favorite flavor here. For me, it's Robinson who set a season-high snap share last week.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce has had a down season by his standards but still a very strong season through any other lens. At the tight end position, Kelce ranks second in targets (106), third in receptions (85), and first in receiving yards (924). Things seem worse than they actually are simply because he hasn't scored in four straight games. Don't give in to recency bias. This is the time to play Kelce in tournaments at home in a matchup that doesn't scare us away.
Dallas Goedert is a solid tournament play since he still hasn't posted a big game since returning from his fractured arm. The signs are there for a hug game upcoming though as Goedert saw nine targets last week.
Without Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely has played on 73%, 79%, and 74% of the offensive snaps over his past three games. Likely is a talented player who has posted 5-83-1 and 5-70-1 over his past two games. He's the preferred play at tight end in this game due to being much more affordable than George Kittle on all sites.
Team Defenses
Eagles D/ST
The Eagles are 11.5-point home favorites and get to attack Tommy Devito, who aside from a game against a hapless Packers defense, has been sacked 5, 9, 6, and 7 times in his other four starts. They're the best D/ST play on the slate.
Chiefs D/ST
The Chiefs are ten-point home favorites and project to come in lower owned than the Eagles thanks to the Raiders blowing out the awful Chargers. The Chiefs are a completely different beast.