Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Spread: Jaguars -8.5
- Jaguars Implied Team Total: 23.5
- Bengals Implied Team Total: 15
The Bengals have the lowest Implied Team Total of the entire week without Joe Burrow. Sadly, this is a lost season for Cincinnati. Emphasize the Jaguars in your builds.
Injury Roundup
- Joe Burrow OUT
- Travis Etienne Jr. Questionable but expected to play
- Tee Higgins IN
Captain Consideration:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence - Captain/Flex
Trevor Lawrence has three rushing touchdowns over the past two games and projects to be efficient in this matchup at home against a struggling Bengals defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And he has all of his weapons healthy with Travis Etienne Jr. questionable but expected to play and all of his pass catchers in Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
Travis Etienne Jr. - Captain/Flex
Travis Etienne Jr. is questionable with a chest injury but he played through it last week and practiced three times this week in limited fashion. All signs point to him playing and you should play him in your Showdown lineups as well. Etienne ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22) and 13th in total yards per game (94.4). He's at home, the Jaguars are 8.5-point favorites, and the matchup is great against a Bengals defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Calvin Ridley - Captain/Flex
The Jaguars have moved Calvin Ridley around the formation recently and it has worked to perfection. He's posted 7-103-2 on 9 targets and 5-89-1 on 6 targets in his past two games. He's in a good spot here to keep the momentum going against a struggling Bengals defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Christian Kirk - Captain/Flex
The Steelers exploited the middle of the field against the Bengals last week and the Jaguars can emulate that on Monday night with Christian Kirk. Kirk has lined up in the slot 71.3% of the time this season.
Evan Engram - Captain/Flex
Evan Engram's 82 targets are just two fewer than Christian Kirk's team-leading 84 and he leads the team in receptions (64). Engram has been solid this year but surprisingly has yet to find the end zone. Positive regression is coming for Engram eventually and it could hit here against a Bengals defense that just allowed Pat Freiermuth to lead the entire NFL in receiving yards last week with 120.
Zay Jones - Flex
Zay Jones returned from injury in Week 11 and has played 63% and 71% of the offensive snaps the past two weeks. He's a fun tournament play to stack with Trevor Lawrence.
D'Ernest Johnson - Flex
D'Ernest Johnson has taken over as the RB2 in Jacksonville. He has out-snapped Tank Bigsby in three straight games and played on a season-high 39% of the offensive snaps last week. With Travis Etienne Jr. possibly less than 100% due to his chest injury, Johnson could pay off in Showdown, especially on DraftKings in a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Jake Browning - Flex
Jake Browning brings a bit of dual-threat capabilities here. He ran for 40 yards in Week 11 and threw for 227 yards in Week 12. The matchup is not kind against a Jaguars defense that ranks second in EPA/Play Allowed and third in Dropback EPA Allowed. But Browning does get Tee Higgins back and projects to be throwing plenty in this one. He's in play.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
Ja'Marr Chase - Flex
Ja'Marr Chase is an elite talent but the matchup is tough, the downgrade from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning is massive, and Tee Higgins returns for added target competition. Chase is in play but nowhere close to the lock he would've been paired with Burrow.
Tee Higgins - Flex
Tee Higgins is a fun tournament play since recency bias will cause the majority to fade him. Higgins hasn't played since Week 9 due to a hamstring injury. He's a massive body and could be a friendly target for Browning, especially in "go up and get it" situations.
Joe Mixon - Fade
Joe Mixon has been an inefficient player for some time now but it didn't matter much while dominating touches in an offense led by Joe Burrow. Without Burrow, Mixon's profile is a giant red flag. The matchup is very tough and the coaches are talking up giving rookie Chase Brown more playing time. Mixon is a fade.
Chase Brown - Flex
Head coach Zac Taylor said he wants to get Chase Brown more involved this week. That's super interesting and puts Brown on the radar as a very fun low owned tournament play in Showdown. Here is my write-up on Brown after he was drafted by the Bengals:
Brown played at Western Michigan during his first year of college before transferring to Illinois for his final four seasons. He proved he's plenty capable of handling a large workload in 2022 when he turned 355 touches, including 27 receptions, into 1,883 total yards and 13 touchdowns. Brown's 329 carries led all Power 5 backs, and his 83 forced missed tackles ranked second behind only Bijan Robinson. Brown's film was impressive. He plays tough and physical but is also shifty and is able to stick his foot in the ground and go. Brown has a similar rushing style to early career Phillip Lindsay yet is the bigger (5-foot-9.5 and 209 pounds) and more athletic version. Brown ran a solid 4.43 40-yard dash and posted a 40-inch vertical and a 127-inch broad.