Week 7 was not quite the injury onslaught that fantasy managers have been experiencing the past two weeks, but there still were injuries to important and pivotal fantasy football assets. Let's break down the injuries from this past week, and I'll advise you on what to expect as you prepare for another waiver wire run.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 11 Return
After ripping off a 69-yard TD run to start the game, Jerome Ford was later injured with a "leg" injury that, by video, appeared to be the dreaded high ankle sprain. Ford was spotted post-game in a walking boot, which does not confirm a high ankle sprain but points to the fact that he is dealing with a foot/ankle issue.
Here's what fantasy managers need to know for the upcoming days:
If Ford is dealing with a low (inversion) ankle sprain, the average time missed for NFL RBs is two weeks, with a 13-20% decrease in fantasy production in their first game back. There is evidence of lingering effects, but for lower severity sprains, it is a relatively common and minor injury.
High ankle sprains are a different beast. On average, running backs miss >3 weeks, and there is strong evidence that the effects of high ankle sprains linger for extended periods of time. Since 2010, RBs who have missed time with a high ankle sprain experience an 18% decline in fantasy points the rest of the season. Not all injuries are the same, but a perfect example of this is Austin Ekeler, who has not looked the same since returning.
Tuesday Update: Per Adam Schefter Ford has a a "low grade high ankle sprain and will miss 1-2 weeks." I still lean toward Ford missing a little more than 2 weeks. Since 2010 78% of RBs have missed > 2 weeks. The good news is it sounds like Ford will avoid the IR and his absence should be brief.
QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns | Concussion / Shoulder | Projecting Week 8 Return
Deshaun Watson got off to a very slow start Sunday and didn't have a chance to amend it after he had a concussion scare. Per Browns' head coach, Kevin Stefanski, Watson cleared the concussion protocol and was cleared to return, but Stefanski wanted to keep Watson out to "protect the franchise QB."
I wrote about the Watson sage in Week 7's edition of Gameday Expectations and how this entire season and injuries have been weird. Assuming Watson's shoulder feels okay, he should be under center again in Week 8 in a favorable match-up at Seattle. However, this is not a lock either. Monday Stefanski told reporters that Watson was going to undergo further testing on his shoulder. He did not rule out an IR stint for the Watson either. By the eye test Watson does not appear close to 100%.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers | Knee Injury | Projecting Week 11 Return
If you drafted Christian Watson and held on to him through his hamstring injury to start the season, it has not really paid off this far. Unfortunately, it might not be turning around anytime soon, either.
Late in Sunday's loss to Denver, Watson exited with a knee right knee injury and, by the looks of it, could be dealing with an MCL sprain.
Christian Watson -
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 22, 2023
Concern for Right knee MCL sprain and/or meniscus.
Problematic considering his history:
•Right meniscus repair in college
•Right knee scope June ‘22
•Right Hamstring injuries ‘22, ‘23
Hopefully this is just a minor sprain.
pic.twitter.com/nYadShksbO
If Watson is dealing with an MCL sprain, it's possible he could end up on IR. MCL sprains can take ~4 weeks to heal. Since 2017, WRs averaged three weeks when diagnosed with an MCL sprain. If Watson avoided an MCL sprain or something more serious, 65% of WRs with a knee injury have miss at least one game.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins | Back Injury | Projecting Week 9 Return
Jaylen Waddle missed most of the first half with a back injury, and reports suggest that the former Crimson Tide wideout was dealing with spasms during the game. Waddle was able to return and, upon his return, tallied another 4 receptions for 39 yards after his stint in the locker room.
Waddle was clearly hampered by the injury and laboring at times to move.
If you remember, Waddle missed most of the preseason with a core/oblique injury, and it's unclear if he has fully recovered from that. Additionally, data shows that NFL WRs miss one week with back injuries, while fewer than 20% miss more than that. I know those who watched the game will say Waddle finished the game, so how can he be out next week? But it's possible that his pain spikes this week. It's also worth mentioning that Miami has a bye in Week 10. Miami is 5-2, and with plans to make a deep playoff run, they will want all their offensive weapons healthy for the second stretch of the season.
Tuesday Update: Waddle is expected to practice on Wednesday. Even if he is limited this is a great sign for his availability in Week 8. Since 2017 of the 17 WRs I have with confirmed back injuries have a very low re-injury risk.
If you're a fantasy manager who is worried about him missing time again, anything is possible but the data is telling us to keep Waddle in our lineups.
TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 10 Return
Rookie TE Luke Musgrave appeared to be hitting his stride, but his progress might be halted as he was ruled out mid-game in Week 6 with an ankle injury. Assuming that Musgrave is dealing with a typical low (inversion) ankle sprain, he could be out the next two games.
TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers | Hip Injury | Projecting Week 9 Return
Gerald Everett could not finish Sunday's game at Kansas City as he was ruled out with a quadriceps injury. As I write this Sunday night, it is unclear if Everett has a strain or a contusion, as both are common injuries in football. A contusion is typically less limiting, and most players miss 0-1 weeks, while a muscle strain takes 2-3 weeks to heal.
Following practice reports and the news out of LA for a better idea of what to expect for Everett. I will shed more light on this Tuesday as more information becomes available.
Tuesday Update: Chargers head coach, Brandon Staley clarified on Monday that Everett is dealing with a hip injury and not a quadriceps injury. He did not go into much more detail but reading in between the lines it sounds like a hip flexor issue.
If you remember Javonte Williams dealt with a similar injury earlier this season and missed one game.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons | "Illness?" | Timeline TBD
One of the more bizarre and frustrating situations in all of fantasy football this season was what happened to Bijan Robinson in Week 7. Robinson dressed but only touched the ball once on a very limited snap share. Mid-game Arthur Smith told a sideline reporter that Bijan was "not feeling well."
Thanks for the heads up, coach.
There is not much to say here, but if you did not watch Sunday's slate of games and just looked at the box score, it does not appear Bijan is dealing with any injury. We hope to see the typical Robinson workload next week but with this team and these coaches, who knows?
Tuesday Update: On Monday the NFL launched an investigation into whether or not the Falcons administered the proper protocol in the handling of Bijan Robinson's "illness." This situation is odd but it sounds like Robinson should be good to go in Week 8 assuming health and he is not in trouble with the team.
TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills | Wrist Surgery | Projecting Week 14 Return
Dawson Knox is getting wrist surgery and could miss an extended period of time. I wrote about this injury two weeks ago and was surprised to see him active that week, but is appears that Knox either had a setback or his injury was not progressing like the team wanted.
It's not clear exactly what Knox's injury is it would not be surprising to see him land on IR. Given that Buffalo has a bye in Week 13, right now I am projecting Knox to return in Week 14. Dalton Kincaid saw a season high targets in Week 7 and his role should continue to grow with Knox out.
Still have a ton of research to do, but if Knox tore his scapholunate ligament, repair timelines are 4-6 months.
— Banged Up Bills (@BangedUpBills) October 23, 2023
Explains why they don’t have a timeline so if he can return, they’re not pressuring him.
Additional damage could lead to changing timelines. #Bills
Tuesday Update: Unofficial word is that Dawson Knox will miss ~4 weeks. It's unclear if he will end up on IR, but I would not rule it out just yet. Kincaid moves into TE1 range when Knox is out.