Monday Dynasty Roundup, Week 6

College football features a concept called Separation Saturdays. These are days the stars align and feature schedules loaded with ranked matchups after the sea of paycheck games against overmatched opponents fatten up records to start the year.

Separation is occurring in the NFL. San Francisco's 42-10 trouncing of Dallas shaped the lens the Cowboys will be viewed with in the near future. Jacksonville's early season-saving win over Buffalo showed they are firmly in the race for the top tier of AFC teams. Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Detroit all showed they deserve consideration as top NFL teams.

Separation is also occurring at the bottom end of the league. Minnesota potentially lost Justin Jefferson for a stretch while falling to 1-4. Carolina, New England, and the New York Giants did not look remotely competitive in matchups against top-tier teams. Denver and Arizona fell to 1-4 while giving the New York Jets and Cincinnati season-saving wins.

Let's tier this out via Tiermaker:

Where we stand is pretty simple. Target fantasy matchups against the bottom group. Be very happy if you have fantasy players in the top group. The middle is going to be a roller coaster; strap in, it's time for the Roundup.

Blind Resume

Several quarterbacks had bounce-back performances from difficult losses in Week 4. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper dynasty leagues.

• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis (39% Sleeper rostered) - Anthony Richardson suffered an AC joint injury. Current expectation sets his return around a month. With the Colts holding a Week 11 bye, Week 12 could be the target date. Minshew has been efficient when given the opportunity and helped deliver one of Michael Pittman Jrs best stat lines of the season. With bye weeks, he's a must-add in Superflex and deep formats.
• RB D'Onta Foreman, Chicago (57% Sleeper rostered) - The Bears lost their entire active backfield on Thursday night. Foreman being inactive for the game saved him for next week. This week may only be a spot start with Roschon Johnson's concussion not expected to linger, but Khalil Herbert looks to be out for multiple weeks, and the Bears have liked to use multiple backs. With Foreman inactive for the last string of games, double-check waiver wires even at a 57% rostership.
• RB Emari Demercado, Arizona (28% Sleeper rostered) - The other TCU rookie RB, Demercado, served as a backup for Kendre Miller last year. James Conner left this game with an injury, and Demercado's role with Keaontay Ingram potentially back in the lineup. Still, he is a natural pass catcher who looks to have a chance to claim the third down role moving forward.
• RB Chris Brooks / RB Salvon Ahmed, Miami (15% Sleeper rostered) - De'Von Achane has been lights out but left Week 5 with a potential ankle injury. The Dolphins have five potential backs who could work in rotations with Jeff Wilson coming back, but this offense and run game are operating at a level all of these guys need to be rostered if possible.
• RB Eric Gray, New York Giants (57% Sleeper rostered) - Week 5 was the first hint the Matt Breida experience could be ending. Saquon Barkley should be back for Week 6. Still, the Giants look headed only one direction, which should afford Gray ample opportunity as the primary backup—another player whose lack of involvement behind Breida and Gary Brightwell may have sent to waivers.
• WR Trenton Irwin, Cincinnati (3% Sleeper rostered) – There's a perception that Tyler Boyd becomes a must-play when Tee Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase is out of the lineup. We now have five games since last year began, which suggests that is not the case. Boyd averages 5.44 targets, four receptions, and 46.81 yards when all are healthy. With one of Chase or Higgins out, Boyd averages 5.8 targets, 3.6 receptions, and 36 yards. Instead, two things happen. Irwin sees involvement, as he did this week with ten targets, eight receptions, and 60 yards. And Higgins or Chase get hyper-targeted. Chase saw 19 targets this week. When Chase missed last year, Higgins went from averaging a 6-4-54.8 line to a 9-6.5-92.8 line. Until we see a change, Boyd should not be treated as a plug-and-play when one of the big two is out, and instead, the remaining one should likely become an auto-play in DFS and prop-based games.
• QB Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants (7% Sleeper rostered) - The Giants are optimistic that Daniel Jones may miss no time or have a very short absence with his neck injury. Their offense has been a mess, even with Jones. Taylor only hits the radar due to his rushing ability and the chance to deliver as a low-end QB2.

Stats Of The Week

• WR DJ Moore, Chicago - eight catches, 230 yards, three touchdowns - 13 players have hit these three numbers in one game, Tyreek Hill (Week 12, 2020) and Ja'Marr Chase (Week 17, 2021) are the only two to accomplish this since Drew Bennett in 2004. Moore's 530 yards with the Bears are the fifth most over a player's first five games with a new franchise.
• WR Tyreek Hill, Miami - eight catches, 180 yards, one touchdown - Hill recorded his seventh game meeting these thresholds. That ties Isaac Bruce with the most games hitting those thresholds since 1990. Hill is now just nine yards shy of 9,000 in his career; he moves into 72nd all-time in receiving yards.
• QB C.J. Stroud, Houston - 186 pass attempts without an interception - Stroud broke Dak Prescott's record of 177 passing attempts without an interception to start his career. Stroud did not throw an interception in this game, so every new attempt will add to the record.
• WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati - 15 catches, 192 yards, three touchdowns - Chase became the fourth player to post a 15/190/3 line. The last was not that long ago, Tyler Lockett in 2022. Chase broke Carl Pickens's team record of 13 receptions in a game. It was his second 190+ yard and three touchdown performance.
• TE George Kittle, San Francisco - three touchdowns - Kittle became the tenth 49er to record a three-touchdown reception game and joined Vernon Davis as the other tight end to do it.

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.

BELLCOWS

• Cincinnati
• Dallas
• Jacksonville
• Las Vegas
• New Orleans
• NY Giants
• San Francisco
• Tampa Bay
• Washington

COMMITTEE WITH A LEAD

• Arizona (Demercado 12, Conner 6)
• NY Jets (Hall 25, Cook 6, Carter 4)
• Indianapolis (Moss 25, Taylor 7)

Already Established

• Atlanta
• Buffalo
• Chicago
• Cleveland
• Detroit
• Houston
• Kansas City
• LA Rams
• Minnesota
• New England
• Philadelphia
• Seattle

TRUE COMMITTEES

• New England (Elliott 12, Stevenson 9)

Already Established

• Baltimore
• Carolina
• Denver
• Green Bay
• LA Chargers
• Miami
• Pittsburgh
• Tennessee

An injury to James Conner shifted Arizona's backfield, but it had already been heading in this direction. Demercado had been claiming more of a third-down role. Arizona OC Drew Penzig and head coach Jonathan Gannon come from teams that utilized committee backfields…Jets coach Robert Saleh removed the restrictions from Breece Hall, and he proved it. Given the performance difference, the backfield moved from a true committee and may be in bellcow status soon. And the buy window on Hall is closed…Indianapolis is an enigma. They paid Jonathan Taylor, and Zack Moss promptly delivered a standout performance in a huge win. Coached Shane Steichen used multiple backs in Philadelphia to great success. Pushing Taylor into a committee makes it very hard to live up to draft expectations, even after missing the first four games…New England is now a full-blown committee and a non-functional offense. A bonus, maybe, from Elliott's ADP, but a killer for Stevenson…Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers's usages pulled closer together. It is trending towards flipping at some point. Mattison saved his week with a receiving touchdown. Still, each week minimizes the opportunity to trade him for any value…Week 6 should hopefully deliver the returns of Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler, while Monday night should hopefully give a return to full effectiveness for Aaron Jones.

The Target Report

• Finally, Pitts came into the game averaging 2.75 catches and 30.3 yards. The last time Pitts caught seven passes in a game was Week 6 of 2021. The last time he hit 87 receiving yards was Week 3 of 2022. This game is the performance fantasy managers desperately need. It's been an open secret he is working back from injury. The Falcons seemed to play looser this week, and Desmond Ridder played the best game of his career. Pitts needs to start stacking these games.
• Thielen had a quiet Week 1. Since then, he has been on a torrid pace, averaging 11 targets, nine receptions, 95.5 yards, and scored in three of his last four games. Ben Watson was the last player age 33 or older to post a three-game span of at least 328 yards in 2015. Thielen is on pace for the best season of his career.
• Hopkins has drawn targets and flirted with a strong output without putting it together. It came together in Week 5. Hopkins's 140 yards were his first 100-yard game since Week 8 of 2022. The Titans had just two 100-yard performances in 2022. This offense needs Hopkins to deliver these performances regularly.
• The memo must have gotten out about tight end disappointments. Waller posted his best yardage game since Week 11 of 2021 and his most receptions since Week 1 of that season. The injury to Daniel Jones is going to hinder an already struggling offense. Waller is tough to move off, especially in a dynasty. Managers need to hope this is the start of a run.
• Nothing can prosper in the New England offense. Target distribution is even, and running back usage is split almost equally between Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson is averaging 37.5 rush yards per game and 3.6 targets; meanwhile, Elliott is just behind at 31.8 yards per game and three targets. Both are touchdown-dependent flex plays in an offense with one touchdown in its last 12 quarters.
• The Ravens' targets struggled, and this tree is getting very tight between Flowers and Andrews. This game was the first with all three of Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr, and Rashod Bateman active. Flowers and Andrews saw 55% of the targets and a near-equal split between the other three. Unless that split breaks hard in one direction, and Bateman would be the hope, none of the other three can elevate beyond a "what the heck" flex. Flowers has yet to break the endzone but is on pace for one of the quietest 98-reception, 1078-yard seasons by a rookie.
• The Eagles offense needs a conversation. They were dead last with only 61 running back targets in 2022. This year, they are on pace for 100. Brown has averaged 144 yards per game in the previous three weeks, a full-season rate of 2,448 yards—A Record. The high concentration of targets allows the offense to have WR6, WR9, and TE5 in 2022. This year, a player has disappeared weekly; the result was the same trio entered Week 5 ranked WR9, WR13, and TE30.
• Eric Bieniemy knows how to utilize the tight end. Thomas is the current beneficiary. In 2022, the Commanders were 21st in tight end targets. In 2023, they are currently fourth. Shifting this usage towards the tight end and away from the wide receivers lowers the ceilings of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Given preseason expectations, Dotson is currently one of the most frustrating fantasy performers.
• The great Gabe Davis Fantasy Wars of 2022 were a year early. Davis has scored in four consecutive games and has solidified the second receiver job in the Buffalo offense, trending toward a 61-reception, 1088-yard season.
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell have rightfully taken all the attention in Houston. The target distribution may come as a shock. Woods leads the team with 40, Collins is second with 35, Dell has 28, and Schultz has 27. Collins and Dell have the highest ceilings, but this target split gives them unplayable floors.

Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)

Week 5

• WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas vs. Green Bay
• WR Zay Jones, Jacksonville vs. Buffalo, 3 receptions, 23 yards, one touchdown, Won 25-20
• WR D.J. Chark Jr, Carolina vs. Detroit, 3 receptions, 42 yards, one touchdown, Loss 42-24
• RB Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City vs. Minnesota, 3 touches, 25 yards, Won 27-20
• RB Matt Breida, New York Giants vs. Miami, 10 touches, 24 yards, Loss 31-16
• RB Ty Montgomery II, New England vs. New Orleans, two touches, five yards, Loss 31-0
• QB Trevor Siemian, New York Jets vs. Denver, Won 31-21

Week 6

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas vs. New England
• WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas vs. New England
• RB Brandon Bolden, Las Vegas vs. New England
• RB Jakob Johnson, Las Vegas Vs. New England
• WR Isaiah Hodgins, New York Giants vs. Buffalo
• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
• QB Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants vs. Buffalo
• WR Chris Moore, Tennessee vs. Baltimore
• WR Marquise Goodwin, Cleveland vs. San Francisco
• WR Robbie Chosen, Miami vs. Carolina

Prospects Of The Week

QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
QB Bo Nix, Oregon

The top ten matchup between Washington and Oregon is the best game on the college football schedule this weekend. These two quarterbacks are a significant reason why. The matchup's winner sits even with USC for control of a demanding Pac-12 conference. The loser will need to beat the Trojans later in the season or need significant help to stay alive to play in the Pac-12 title game. Both quarterbacks also hold NFL draft intrigue, entering the league as very experienced prospects.

The similarities between Nix and Penix are interesting. Both started their careers at other Power Five programs; Nix was an immediate starter at Auburn as a freshman in 2019, while Penix Jr. sat most of his first season before taking over at Indiana in the 2019 season. They both have over 1,300 college attempts, with Nix at 12,303 career yards and 83 career touchdowns vs 24 career interceptions, while Penix Jr. is at 10,837-76-25 over the same stretch.

Their 2022 matchup was a 37-34 classic that saw Oregon take a seven-point lead with 3:54 left before Washington ripped off ten points to steal the game at the wire. Both have NFL-level receiving talent, with Troy Franklin leading Oregon and Rome Odunze, Ja'lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan rounding out Washington's attack. Make some time for a 3:30 EST kick on ABC.

Blind Resume Answer

Desmond Ridder and Joe Burrow both needed these performances. The Bengals and Falcons have experienced some significant low points to open the season. That said, the Bengals woke up this morning just one game back in their division (though they are down a head-to-head tiebreaker), while the Falcons are just half a game before, with the Buccaneers sitting idle. There is still 70% of the season to play, and both gave performances that remind us that everything we have seen so far has been small sample-size theaters.

Footballguys' Content Spotlight

The college football season is shockingly already nearing the mid-season point, and dynasty players are starting to reach the point of dreaming about next year's rookie class. Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and Ohio St. wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. are familiar names, but the rest of the Top 36 is still fleshing out. No worries, our Kevin Coleman has you covered. His weekly Dynasty Football Big Board monitors the developing rookie class. This weekly piece is much more than just a Top 36 listing; Kevin provides context around draft pick trade value for veteran players, highlights completed trades involving draft picks, showcases significant prospect performances, and discusses pivot points for players in dynasty spotlights. This article is a weekly must-read.

Deep Player To Watch On Monday Night Football

WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas - Tucker's snap counts have been quietly ticking up for three straight weeks, while Hunter Renfrow's have gone in the opposite direction. The two feature entirely different skill sets. With Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers' ability to work multiple route concepts as the two focal points, Tucker's speed and ability to stretch defenses vertically is more valuable than Renfrow's underneath ability.

Renfrow is likely not long for the Raiders. His $15.8 million cap is the 18th-highest wide receiver number, and the team has an out before the 2024 season. Either a trade, a restructure, or an outright release is coming. Tucker has the chance to force the issue.

Tucker has not touched the ball since Week 2 in Buffalo when he was involved in the run game and drew one target. His lack of involvement is not shocking; only Adams, Meyers, and Josh Jacobs can touch the ball. But his continued presence indicates the team's direction and could make Renfrow expendable if injuries mount across the league and teams look outside for production.