Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Josh Jacobs' Struggles
Josh Jacobs has struggled to back up his 2022 performance when he led the league in rushing and finished as RB3 in fantasy points.
In 2022, Jacobs had 53 catches and finished 10th at the position in receptions. He has improved his performance this season, currently ranking 3rd in receptions (26) and 7th in receptions per game (3.7), an increase over last year's performance of 3.1 receptions per game.
However, Jacobs's struggles this season have primarily been as a runner. He averages only 2.9 yards per carry, which ranks tied for last among qualifiers at the position. The cause for this is mixed. According to NextGenStats, Jacobs is performing 0.61 rushing yards per carry under expectation, a bottom-third of the league performance. However, his rushing expectation, which describes his situation, is 3.53 yards per carry, which ranks 43rd among the 47 qualifying running backs.
Jacob has struggled after contact this season. His 2.03 yards after contact per carry is the worst of his career, well behind his 2020 performance (2.82).
Jacobs has been able to maintain his 13.5 PPG based on his usage. He has the second-highest percentage of his team's snaps (78%), has the second-highest percentage of his team's carries (73%), and is tied for 10th in route participation (52%).
Notably, Jacobs has the fourth-highest rushing touchdown expectation (5.3) but has only scored two touchdowns. This type of production is highly variable and should regress upwards closer to his mean, assuming his role remains the same.
Verdict: Overall, Jacobs's workload is reasonable, but he is underperforming the opportunity he has earned. His underperformance is skill-based as a runner (after contact running), resulting in touchdown underperformance. If Jacobs maintains his role, he should maintain fringe RB1 production for the rest of the season.
Joe Mixon's Downfall
Joe Mixon has struggled mightily in 2023, which is part of a bigger decline in his career over the past three years. Mixon is averaging 11.5 PPG on the season, good for RB31 in per-game scoring.
Mixon's down year is primarily explained by poor performance. Mixon has averaged 2.8 yards after contact in his career, which has plummeted to 2.39 in 2023 and down significantly from 2.63 in 2022.
Mixon has also fallen off as a pass catcher. Touted as a high-level receiving prospect coming out of Oklahoma, Mixon has never capitalized on his potential. In his career, Mixon has averaged 1.21 yards per route run. Last season was his best as a receiver, catching 60 passes for 441 yards with a yards-per-route-run of 1.47. This year, he has fallen off, catching only 16 passes for 140 yards, almost an entire catch per game below his 2022 production. Mixon's yards per route run has also cratered to a career-low of 0.74.
Mixon has one of the more consolidated roles in the league, playing on 74% of the team's snaps, the fifth-highest total for running backs, while leading the position with 79% of his team's rushing attempts and ranking eighth in route participation (55%).
Mixon has fallen to the level of replacement aggregator this year, a concern for a running back with 1410 career carries at 27 years of age.
Verdict: Mixon's struggles are an ominous sign of decline. Despite a strong workload, Mixon has plummeted in efficiency statistics, leaving him more in the RB2 conversation than any RB1 production earlier in his career.