Is This Real? Week 8

Photo: USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Josh Jacobs' Struggles

Josh Jacobs has struggled to back up his 2022 performance when he led the league in rushing and finished as RB3 in fantasy points.

In 2022, Jacobs had 53 catches and finished 10th at the position in receptions. He has improved his performance this season, currently ranking 3rd in receptions (26) and 7th in receptions per game (3.7), an increase over last year's performance of 3.1 receptions per game.

However, Jacobs's struggles this season have primarily been as a runner. He averages only 2.9 yards per carry, which ranks tied for last among qualifiers at the position. The cause for this is mixed. According to NextGenStats, Jacobs is performing 0.61 rushing yards per carry under expectation, a bottom-third of the league performance. However, his rushing expectation, which describes his situation, is 3.53 yards per carry, which ranks 43rd among the 47 qualifying running backs.

Jacob has struggled after contact this season. His 2.03 yards after contact per carry is the worst of his career, well behind his 2020 performance (2.82).

Jacobs has been able to maintain his 13.5 PPG based on his usage. He has the second-highest percentage of his team's snaps (78%), has the second-highest percentage of his team's carries (73%), and is tied for 10th in route participation (52%).

Notably, Jacobs has the fourth-highest rushing touchdown expectation (5.3) but has only scored two touchdowns. This type of production is highly variable and should regress upwards closer to his mean, assuming his role remains the same.

Verdict: Overall, Jacobs's workload is reasonable, but he is underperforming the opportunity he has earned. His underperformance is skill-based as a runner (after contact running), resulting in touchdown underperformance. If Jacobs maintains his role, he should maintain fringe RB1 production for the rest of the season.