Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players that have sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players that have unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Is Puka Nacua real?
Puka Nacua has been arguably the biggest star of the first two weeks of the NFL season. Entering the season, there was a real question of what the Rams would look like outside of the Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp show on offense. Kupp was then placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, which left the Rams offense looking into the abyss. Enter Puka Nacua. Since 1992, there have been three wide receivers to start their career with at least 25 targets in the first two weeks of their career:
- Terry Glenn: 26
- Anquan Boldin: 27
- Puka Nacua: 35
Nacua has the most receptions (25) to start a career of any wide receiver since 1992. His production is without precedent, and it is extremely difficult to fake elite production. Through two weeks, Nacua has run 87 routes, produced 3.06 yards per route run, and has been targeted on 40.2% of his routes. These are impossible to fake stats.
The question is natural about what will happen when Cooper Kupp returns. Tutu Atwell also ranks 7th pending Monday night football with 196 receiving yards. What looked like a weak offense suddenly looks like a robust set of skill position players.
Verdict: Will Nacua lead the league in reception? Probably unlikely. However, Nacua is here to stay.
Is Jordan Love a guy?
Jordan Love is the QB2 in fantasy scoring through two weeks and has averaged three touchdowns per game, but the numbers are mixed on Love. His completion percentage over expectation is -10.8, the second worst ahead of only Justin Fields (-11%). Green Bay is the 10th worst in on-target throw percentage (32.7%) and ranks as the 7th worst in bad throw percentage (13.5%), according to ProFootballReference. All of this is a concern, given that Green Bay has the 10th lowest pressure rate on dropbacks (10.5%). Notably, Green Bay leads the league in yards after the catch per reception (7.7), a stat that is difficult to sustain. Overall, Love is performing near the bottom of the league among quarterbacks by PFF.
Verdict: Love has proven that he is competent, but his current production is not sustainable.
Is James Cook an RB1?
Through the first two weeks of the season, James Cook is RB12 in points per game (15.1) and he ranks fifth among running backs in non-touchdown points scored per game (15.1). Unfortunately for Cook, he has yet to score a touchdown, but the usage is very encouraging. He has 10 targets on his 46 routes, a solid 21.7% target rate through two weeks and ran routes on 21 of the team’s 39 dropbacks on Sunday, a solid participation rate. As a rusher, Cook ranks sixth in rushing yards over expectation per attempt (1.6). Cook has consolidated a solid role in the offense and has legitimate top-12 ceiling if he can add a half-touchdown per game on top of his current production.
Verdict: Real production, with a chance for a higher ceiling.