Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Patrick Mahomes II Struggles
Patrick Mahomes II has struggled in 2023. He has a career low in touchdown rate (4.8%), yards per attempt (7.1), passing yards per game (264.5), and touchdowns per game (1.8) despite performing at his career average of 37.4 attempts per game.
His performance this year is disappointing but not a sign of decline. His team has struggled at wide receiver. Except for JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs brought back last season’s receiving corps while adding rookie Rashee Rice. The problem for Mahomes is the entire receiving corps took a step back or failed to progress.
Despite all the hand-wringing, Mahomes still ranks fifth in touchdowns (25), third in expected touchdowns (27.3), and is QB9 in points per game (18.3). Mahomes may be in the midst of a down season, but he still has week-winning potential.
Verdict: Patrick Mahomes II’s disappointing season is being judged against his prior track record of elite results. This has left many disappointed by his production, but be careful of any temptations to bench him for a lesser option in the playoffs. His profile is still strong, and his fantasy production is in line with the QB1 starters around the league.
David Njoku's Dominant TE Production
Since week 13, David Njoku has been the TE4 in per-game scoring, behind only Trey McBride, Evan Engram, and Sam LaPorta. What has changed?
Joe Flacco has been at the helm of the Cleveland offense.
In the first 12 weeks of the season, Njoku averaged 7.1 targets per game, 4.6 receptions, 44.7 receiving yards, and 0.2 receiving touchdowns. This stat line was good for 10.2 points per game and a TE10 ranking in points per game.
In the three weeks since Flacco has been at the helm, jumped to 19.1 points per game, with Njoku averaging 9.3 targets, 6.0 receptions, 70.7 receiving yards, and a touchdown per game.
The underlying metrics for Njoku have not changed dramatically. In the first 12 weeks of the season, Njoku was targeted on 21% of his routes and was targeted on 21% of the team’s passing attempts. In the past three weeks, he has been targeted on 26% of his routes and 22% of the passing attempts.
Njoku has benefitted from a change in offensive philosophy under Flacco. In the first 12 weeks, Cleveland averaged a dropback rate of 57% and dropped back to pass 3% under expectation, given the game situation of their offense.
In the past three weeks, the team has dropped back to pass 68% of the time and has a dropback rate of 7% over expectation. In those three weeks, only Jacksonville has dropped back to pass-over-expectation at a higher rate (10%).
The change in offensive structure has driven a higher pass volume, which Njoku has benefitted from at the same rate as he did early in the season.
Verdict: Overall, Njoku is tied for second in the share of his team’s targets on the season among tight ends (22%), which has remained consistently before and during the Flacco era, so Njoku is benefitting from the uptick in passing volume.