Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Is Zach Charbonnet taking over for Ken Walker III?
Fantasy GMs entered the 2023 season curious about how the Seattle backfield would play out. Walker was the dominant running back in the backfield, handling more than 60% of the snap share in five of the season's first six games. That has changed in the past three weeks, with Charbonnet handling more snaps than Walker in each week.
Is this a sign of a change in hierarchy?
No.
The difference this past two weeks has been entirely based on two-minute snaps. In the past three games, Seattle's running backs have handled 32 snaps in 2-minute situations, and Charbonnet has handled all of those snaps. By comparison, in the first seven weeks of the season, the team only handled 4.5 2-minute snaps per game. This situation is largely an outlier. When you exclude 2-minute snaps, Kenneth Walker is still the leader of the backfield, but the timeshare has grown closer.
On the season, Walker has handled 15 snaps inside the 5-yard line this season, while Charbonnet has taken only 2. The backfield split is similar to what would have been expected earlier in the season, with Walker handling the running role and Charbonnet the receiving role out of the backfield. The game scripts of the past three weeks have simply amplified the stylistic differences.
Verdict: The game scripts from the past two weeks have favored Charbonnet in a way unlikely to continue in the coming weeks. Expect Walker to continue the leading role in the backfield, with Charbonnet the receiving-centric back more dependent on game script.
Are DK Metcalf's struggles real?
DK Metcalf ranks 34th in points per game, scoring 12.8 points per game. In 2022, Metcalf finished as WR22 in per game scoring (13.6), with 90 receptions, 1,048 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. This year, Metcalf has 62 targets, 35 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Metcalf is down from his 2022 season, falling in volume from 8.3 to 7.8 targets per game and 5.3 to 4.4 receptions per game.
While the volume is down, the yardage is up to 69 receiving yards per game from 61.6 in 2022. Metcalf also has the highest yards per reception of his career (15.8).
While the volume is down, his efficiency is up.
| Season | Targets/G | Rec/G | aDOT | YAC/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 13.0 | 4.7 |
| 2020 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 13.7 | 4.4 |
| 2021 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 11.2 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 4.6 |
His average depth of target is at his career median, while his targets per game and yards after the catch are in line with his career average. The 2022 style looks like the outlier in terms of a career-high in targets and receptions while running a lower aDOT and doing very little after the catch.
The big difference this year has been the quality of his quarterback play. In 2022, 73% of his targets were catchable, which ranks 66th of 116 receivers with at least 100 routes. This has dropped to 64% in 2023, which ranks 104th in catchable target rate.
Metcalf's production is performing in line with the quality of targets and is consistent with Geno Smtih taking a step back in the quality of play. This is especially true considering his drop rate (1.6%) is the lowest of Metcalf's career. While Metcalf's target volume is 0.5 targets from last season, his production is in line with the rest of his career, with the exception of the quality of the targets.
Verdict: Metcalf's volume is down, but his production is in line with WR2 production throughout the second half of the season if he gets on the same page as Geno Smith.