Volume is key for running backs. For years, we've learned to chase that precious volume in fantasy football. What we rarely discuss, though, is how quickly that volume can vanish.
There are three running backs right now with perceived workhorse roles that you should be looking to sell: Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Alexander Mattison. Of course, looking at the depth charts, you're probably asking yourself, "Who will step up and usurp this role?" Well, that's a fallacy we'll dive into later.
First of all, these running backs all have a few common traits:
- Inefficiencies as a runner
- Dominant snaps shares
- Round 3 draft capital or later
- Small contracts
- No long-term history of success
The opportunities these backs are seeing are the only things making them alluring fantasy options. Mattison and Williams are both top-five in weighted opportunities, and White is 12th. Regarding opportunity share (percentage of a team's running back touches), all three are inside the top ten. White's 77.3% snap share is the lowest of the bunch and still comes in as the seventh-highest in the league. Mattison's snap share is sixth, and Williams' is the league's highest.
Few statistics can accurately measure a running back's overall effectiveness, but NextGenStat's rushing yards over expectation per attempt comes close. All three running backs are posting terribly inefficient production compared to their expectations. Kyren Williams' -0.49 yards over expectation per attempt is the best of the three and still 14th-lowest in the league. Alexander Mattison's -0.51 is the league's 13th-lowest. And Rachaad White's -1.38 is the third-worst, ahead of only Cam Akers and Dalvin Cook.
EPA (expected points added) is another advanced rushing statistic that measures how much a player's individual plays contribute to the scoring potential on each drive. All three running backs have negatively affected their team's ability to score points. Williams' is the best of the three, and his -1.7 EPA ranks 57th-worst of all running backs. Mind you, that poor EPA considers the four total touchdowns he's scored. Mattison's EPA is -6.8, the 97th-lowest. And Rachaad White's -16.9 is dead last among 117 qualifying running backs.
These last two paragraphs indicate that all three players are liabilities to their team's offensive success. Rarely do we see a team lean on inefficient backs for most of the season. And when they do, those decisions are often influenced by draft capital (2022 Najee Harris) or contracts (2022 Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook). These three running backs have neither of those working in their favor.
But who will step up in their place?
This is the argument supporters use to maintain their bullish stances on Williams, White, and Mattison. While looking at the depth chart may trick you into thinking these running backs will hold their roles, it is unlikely. The running back position and perceived roles are volatile. Things can change quickly. Let's look at a few other "dead zone" running backs who got off to similar sluggish starts and how their seasons ended.
Recent examples of inefficient running backs who lost work
2022 Chase Edmonds: Sitting atop Miami's depth chart after signing an offseason contract, Edmonds was steamed into the sixth round of fantasy football drafts last year. In Week 1, he dominated the backfield, seeing more than twice as many touches as the rest of the team's backfield combined. However, his -2.89 RYOE/attempt ranked dead last. His defenders expected the workload to stick on a roster with only an aging Raheem Mostert. Mostert slowly saw his role grow in the offense. The team traded for Jeff Wilson Jr. before Week 9. Salvon Ahmed found a role in the offense. And eventually, Edmonds became utterly irrelevant in fantasy.
2021 Mike Davis: To kick off the 2021 season, Davis appeared to be the team's lead back. A 75% snap share and 21 touches in Week 1 was exactly what his drafters wanted to see. But a -0.93 RYOE/attempt ranked 6th-worst in the league. As the season progressed, Davis saw his snaps and opportunities dwindle. Cordarrelle Patterson and Qadree Ollison took on unexpected roles. The team made a midseason move to acquire Wayne Gallman. From Week 7 onward, Davis only saw double-digit carries once.
2021 Darrell Henderson Jr.: From Weeks 1-12, Henderson dominated the snaps and touches in the Rams' backfield but wasn't especially efficient with them. However, 18 touches a game buoyed his output to produce 15.7 weekly fantasy points. His negative RYOE/attempt and 95th-ranked EPA among running backs was enough for Sean McVay to yank his volume from him amidst an injury, leaning on Sony Michel and Cam Akers for the rest of the regular season and playoffs. In the two games Henderson played for the rest of the season, he saw just seven total carries.
There doesn't always need to be "a guy" behind the starter on the depth chart for the starter to lose his gig. Committee approaches, surprising elevations, trades, and free agency signings can all cause a running back's volume to disappear quickly.
Where there's smoke, there's fire.
Recent reports out of Los Angeles are that "Sean McVay wants to get other RBs involved beyond Kyren Williams and knows his current snap pace isn't sustainable." Whether it be an elevation of Zach Evans to the active roster, increased work for Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers, a trade for Jonathan Taylor, or a free agency signing, the team is already signaling that Williams will not maintain his role.
In Minnesota, the Vikings traded for Cam Akers. They re-signed Myles Gaskin after releasing him in the offseason. They brought in Kareem Hunt and Mike Davis for workouts. Mattison has been an offensive liability, and the team recognizes it.
Rachaad White's role appears safe now, with an equally inefficient Sean Tucker as the main guy behind him. But Leonard Fournette is looming in free agency. Ke'Shawn Vaughn has a history with the offense. Things can change quickly for White.
It's impossible to predict just how these running back rooms will be affected. But we can anticipate changes soon.
No one expected a midseason trade for Jeff Wilson and a healthy Raheem Mostert to push Chase Edmonds to the backburner. No one expected Cordarrelle Patterson to have a Year 9 breakout and render Mike Davis useless. No one thought Sony Michel would shoulder 24.8 touches to close out the season after being an afterthought through the first 12 weeks of 2021.
And just like we couldn't predict those outcomes over the last few years, we can't predict how the Buccaneers, Vikings, and Rams running back rooms will look in a few weeks. But history tells us that we can expect change. And teams won't continue feeding inefficient backs workhorse roles.