Volume is key for running backs. For years, we've learned to chase that precious volume in fantasy football. What we rarely discuss, though, is how quickly that volume can vanish.
There are three running backs right now with perceived workhorse roles that you should be looking to sell: Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Alexander Mattison. Of course, looking at the depth charts, you're probably asking yourself, "Who will step up and usurp this role?" Well, that's a fallacy we'll dive into later.
First of all, these running backs all have a few common traits:
- Inefficiencies as a runner
- Dominant snaps shares
- Round 3 draft capital or later
- Small contracts
- No long-term history of success
The opportunities these backs are seeing are the only things making them alluring fantasy options. Mattison and Williams are both top-five in weighted opportunities, and White is 12th. Regarding opportunity share (percentage of a team's running back touches), all three are inside the top ten. White's 77.3% snap share is the lowest of the bunch and still comes in as the seventh-highest in the league. Mattison's snap share is sixth, and Williams' is the league's highest.
Few statistics can accurately measure a running back's overall effectiveness, but NextGenStat's rushing yards over expectation per attempt comes close. All three running backs are posting terribly inefficient production compared to their expectations. Kyren Williams' -0.49 yards over expectation per attempt is the best of the three and still 14th-lowest in the league. Alexander Mattison's -0.51 is the league's 13th-lowest. And Rachaad White's -1.38 is the third-worst, ahead of only Cam Akers and Dalvin Cook.
EPA (expected points added) is another advanced rushing statistic that measures how much a player's individual plays contribute to the scoring potential on each drive. All three running backs have negatively affected their team's ability to score points. Williams' is the best of the three, and his -1.7 EPA ranks 57th-worst of all running backs. Mind you, that poor EPA considers the four total touchdowns he's scored. Mattison's EPA is -6.8, the 97th-lowest. And Rachaad White's -16.9 is dead last among 117 qualifying running backs.
These last two paragraphs indicate that all three players are liabilities to their team's offensive success. Rarely do we see a team lean on inefficient backs for most of the season. And when they do, those decisions are often influenced by draft capital (2022 Najee Harris) or contracts (2022 Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook). These three running backs have neither of those working in their favor.
But who will step up in their place?
This is the argument supporters use to maintain their bullish stances on Williams, White, and Mattison. While looking at the depth chart may trick you into thinking these running backs will hold their roles, it is unlikely. The running back position and perceived roles are volatile. Things can change quickly. Let's look at a few other "dead zone" running backs who got off to similar sluggish starts and how their seasons ended.