IDP Pass Rushing Rotations To Target

The NFL is an ever-changing game, at least schematically. Coaches are always changing schemes and game plans in an attempt to keep up with each other. To say that base Nickel packages (two or fewer inside linebackers and extra defensive backs) would be the base defense for most NFL defenses six or seven years ago would seem crazy... but here we are. One schematic change that has happened more recently is the use of pass-rushing rotations. Dating back just three to four years ago, rotations were not that common. Having two edge defenders dominate 70+% of the team's edge snaps was not all that uncommon. Recently, teams have been using more rotations on the edge, and it has proven to be quite beneficial.

What this has done is create specialist roles. There are players who are better run defenders, and players who have been pegged as pass-rushing specialists. It has also made the need to draft edge rushers early in IDP drafts less necessary. In all actuality, it has made the three-down linebacker more of a necessary target, with most teams taking linebackers off the field in exchange for extra defensive backs. Drafts are now flooded with edge rushing depth. For those new to IDP, think of this as teams making the change to a running-back-by-committee approach. Many teams use it, and it does not destroy the value of both running backs but in turn, creates two players with stand-alone value, just to a lesser extent. This is a large reason why fantasy managers have adopted the Zero-RB strategy. The positional value has decreased dramatically. The same goes for the Edge position.

Tom Kislingbury, an IDP savant, put in some extensive work creating his defensive handbook, which is free to the public. This handbook documents team strategies and formation usages, which I used to find the teams who have the most potent pass-rushing rotations. Let's take a look at the top IDP pass-rushing rotations to target and the tiers of who to draft within the teams.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills run one of the most simplistic defenses in the entire NFL. Coach Sean McDermott runs a defense that is precise with limited changes in scheme. They run a base 4-2-5 (four defensive linemen, two linebackers, 5 defensive backs) formation. This was the formation the Bills ran 90% of the time in 2022. McDermott's mantra is accountability. He also loves running a rotation with his edge rushers. In 2022, the Bills had five different edge defenders play at least 375 snaps (35.68%). Even with the injuries to Von Miller (season-ending) and Gregory Rousseau (played 13 games), the Bills still ran a four-to-five-man rotation off the edge.

What does this tell us? For one, this tells us that the star edge rushers on the team are really good. Rousseau (44.05%) and Miller (42.82%) were incredibly efficient and effective while playing less than 50% of the team's snaps. Rousseau had 37 total tackles, eight sacks, one forced fumble, and four passes defended. Miller posted 21 total tackles, eight sacks, one forced fumble, and two passes defended. McDermott is dedicated to having a rotation that will not skip a beat and play sound, efficient defense. He went and signed Leonard Floyd, arguably the top free-agent pass rusher, this off-season. With Floyd, the defense talent level drop-off during player rotations is minimal. The unit is that much stronger and one of the pass-rushing rotations you should target in your drafts.

Bills edge Tier Levels

Tier 1: Greg Rousseau - Rousseau is an athletic behemoth (6-foot-6 and 266 pounds) of an edge rusher. He showed vast improvement during his second season and is truly looking like an elite edge rusher. With this just being his age-23 season and a clean bill of health, Rousseau is an easy DL1 target.

Tier 2: Von Miller and Leonard Floyd - Von Miller did not seem to lose a step in 2022, that is, until he tore his ACL. Either way, his 21 tackles and eight sacks in just 11 games are right on par with his career trajectory. He is eyeing a Week 1 return and is still a viable DL2 in redraft formats. Leonard Floyd just completed his third consecutive season of at least 55 total tackles, 9 sacks, and an 80% snap-share with the Los Angeles Rams. With that in mind, his snap share is going to be nearly cut in half so I would not expect that sort of volume in the tackle category. Still, Floyd has proven to be an IDP asset, and in a rotation with Miller and Rousseau, he is still a DL2/3.

Tier 3: Carlos Basham Jr. and A.J. Epenesa - Basham and Epenesa are just depth options and are no better than a DL5 for fantasy purposes. They should be left on waivers. The only time they should be drafted is in deep 53-man roster leagues. What they do provide is elite options if one of Rousseau, Miller, or Floyd gets injured. Both Basham and Epenesa could likely start or play a pivotal role on a different defense, making them decent dynasty stashes, but for now, that is all they are.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles edge rushers were incredibly impressive, to say the least, in 2022. They averaged four and a half sacks per game as a team, easily the most in the league. There were four players with at least 40 pressures, ranking the overall defense in the top five in total pressures. The Eagles are similar to the Bills in regard to a more simplistic approach to defensive scheme, just not to such an extreme level. The Eagles ran a Nickel package 69% of the time in 2022, 21% more than the league average. They did switch up often between a three and four-man front defensive line and had their edge rushers play both with their hand in the dirt as well as standing up.

The Eagles ran a three-headed monster in 2022 of Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham. All three played at least 43% of the team's defensive snaps, with Reddick playing a strong 74%. This deployment will likely be unchanged for Sweat and Reddick. Those two played at an elite level in 2022. Brandon Graham had arguably his best season at the age of 34, setting a career-high in sacks. The writing is on the wall, though, now at the age of 35. With the 30th overall pick, the Eagles drafted Nolan Smith. Smith is a phenomenal player, but he and Graham may be splitting a lot of time, thus nullifying each other's value. Still, the Eagles have a tremendous sack finish rate, easily the best in the league. they are likely to be at or near the top in leading the leagues in sacks. This makes multiple players on this defensive line draftable assets.

Eagles Tier Levels

Tier 1: Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat - It is pretty rare to find two DL1s on a single team, but as mentioned above, the Eagles were a pass-rushing powerhouse. Reddick was absolutely elite, finishing 2022 with 49 total tackles, 16 sacks, five forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, and five passes defended. He in his prime at 28 years old and will continue to perform at an elite level. Josh Sweat just continues to improve and impress. In 2022, Sweat racked up 48 tackles, 11 sacks, one forced fumble, one interception, and a pass defended. Sweat has raised his tackle and sack totals in each of the past three seasons, settling in nicely as a low-end DL1.

Tier 2: No Tier 2 assets

Tier 3: Brandon Graham and Nolan Smith - This is a bit tough to project until we see defensive line usage in the preseason, but both players are worth rostering at the end of your bench or your taxi squad (Smith). With the rate at which the Eagles finished sacks in 2022, at least one of Smith and Graham, if not both, could be legitimate DL4s. Graham is a redraft target, while Smith is a high-level dynasty asset.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had an elite defense in 2022. The defense they put out almost always included an extra safety, with 94% of their snaps being played with a Nickel, Big Nickel, and big Dime packages. Nickel packages run five defensive backs, and Dime packages run six. Led by Micah Parsons, the Cowboys led the entire NFL in pressures in 2022. The Cowboys were constantly changing the formation up front. The Cowboys ran a very interesting package, one that makes their pass-rushing rotation possibly the top to target. That package is called the Big Nascar Package.

The Big Nascar Package has a four-man defensive front, one interior linebacker, and a Dime secondary. What makes this defense intriguing? The four-man front consists of our edge rushers. What this did was create five different edge rushers for the Cowboys who weld stand-alone value; Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr, and Sam Williams. The Cowboys added some depth at the edge with Viliami Fehoko in the 4th round of the 2023 Draft, but the previous five listed should still hold value.

Cowboys Tier Levels

Tier 1: Micah Parsons - Parsons is the number one ranked IDP asset by many, especially in Sleeper leagues, where he holds duel position (DL/LB) eligibility. He is a monster of a pass-rusher and lines up all over the defensive front, and at times, much less in 2022, as an inside linebacker. The time at inside linebacker allows Parsons to add a few more tackles than normal edge defenders while also piling on sacks to boot. He is a top 5 DL asset.

Tier 2: DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong - Lawrence is aging, and it shows some. But he still holds plenty of value as a DL2. Lawrence just finished 2022 with 65 tackles, six sacks, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries while playing 61% of the team's defensive snaps. He is getting older, though he is a volume-tackling edge with the propensity to force turnovers. Armstrong enjoyed a breakout 2022 campaign with 33 tackles and eight sacks with a 47% snap-share. With the way the Cowboys deployed their edge defenders, Armstrong should see a similar snap-share in 2023 and a solid DL2/3.

Tier 3: Dante Fowler Jr and Sam Williams - Fowler flourished in a part-time role with the Cowboys after numerous failed attempts to be a legitimate DL1. On a 30% snap-share, Fowler racked up 27 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles, and two passes defended. Fowler always had talent, though a volume snap role never fit him. Sam Williams was fantastic as a rookie piling on 22 tackles, four sacks, one forced fumble, three fumble recoveries, and a pass defended. His propensity to force and come away with turnovers may give him more snaps and pass Fowler on the depth chart, though it may still be a 30% and 27% split, whichever way it falls. Both showed value either way and are DL4/5 options.

Final Thoughts

For the longest time, drafting edge defenders early on in IDP drafts was the staple draft strategy. With teams now deploying more pass-rushing rotations and different pass-rushing strategies, there are more edge defenders who hold value. This makes drafting edge defenders less essential. What I would recommend is to target 3-down elite-level linebackers early. On average, NFL defenses are playing Nickel defense 48% of the time, taking at least one linebacker off of the field. Positional scarcity is changing in IDP fantasy football. Look for the teams who have a legitimate pass-rushing rotation that you can take advantage of and grab value late. Thank you again for reading my articles. I appreciate all of the readers. good luck in 2023.