High-Leverage Opportunities: Running Backs, Week 11

Photo: USA Today Sports

Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

THE GOOD

Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs rising to the RB1 role in Week 10 over a healthy David Montgomery is the most notable aspect of this depth chart. Gibbs was more of an upside flex earlier in the season within the committee, and Montgomery was a firm starter. The fantasy roles have reversed if Week 10 is any trend line towards the stretch run. The good news is Detroit is one of the best HLO teams in the NFL with another elite weekly finish in Week 10, plus 5-of-9 weeks in the top five. Gibbs has league-winning potential, even with Montgomery being a touchdown-centric RB2. Craig Reynolds is a notable RB3 on the landscape if injuries cascade in Detroit for a boom week later in the season.

Chargers

The Chargers continue to rise in season-long HLO, and their weekly HLO score directly reflects Austin Ekeler's health for a given game. Another elite finish in Week 10 was their third in a row. Other than Ekeler being an impact stretch run, running back (health pending) is a reminder of their anemic HLO and how things shifted without Ekeler in the lineup. Joshua Kelley was a frustrating fantasy start and sparsely used in the passing game. With data points from this season, do not overstate the upside of the Chargers' backfield sans Ekeler or Joshua Kelley, specifically later in the season if Ekeler misses time.

Commanders

Washington had their best HLO finish of the season in Week 10. Brian Robinson was one of the select "Where did THAT come from?" outcomes with his two long receptions, one for a touchdown, on Sam Howell extension plays. Robinson was left alone on the sideline on both occasions, and Washington had nearly double the running back receiving yards of the second-highest team in Week 10. Robinson did not see a strong enough route share or sudden elevation in utilization to warrant such a dramatic receiving output. For Washington, they are trending positively over the past three weeks, but Antonio Gibson is still a significant part of the backfield split as a receiving option. Should Gibson miss time, there is a significant upside with Robinson as Chris Rodriguez, the RB3, is more of a two-down grinder profile than a three-down foundation back.

Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson is working through a current back injury with the New England bye week finding the team at the right time. An additional week for Stevenson to heal, but also considering the team benching Mac Jones in-game with the result still firmly in doubt in Week 10. The Patriots have had four of their best five HLO weekly results over the past five weeks. Ezekiel Elliott has been positioned as a potential impact player all season, but now, with a strong team HLO setting headed toward the fantasy playoffs. Elliott's market share would likely be stronger than Stevenson's current RB1 role, considering the massive gap between Elliott and the current RB3.