Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- TE Tyler Higbee
- WR Jerry Jeudy
- QB Deshaun Watson
- QB Derek Carr
- WR Marquise Brown
- WR Deebo Samuel
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
- RB Miles Sanders
- RB Austin Ekeler
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- RB Justice Hill
Eligible to return from injured reserve
- N/A
Ruled Out
- WR Rashod Bateman (hamstring)
- WR Odell Beckham Jr (ankle injury)
- WR Treylon Burks (knee injury)
- WR Zay Jones (knee injury)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams | Achilles | 50/50
After not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday, Tyler Higbee was able to log a limited practice with an Achilles injury. This type of injury is very similar to a calf/gastrocnemius strain, which, for TEs, typically nets at least one game missed. On average, 72% of tight ends miss time with this type of injury. It sounds like Higbee is going to be a game-time decision, but given the data and the fact that he has been limited all week, I would lean toward him sitting this week. As a Purdue University graduate, I'm obligated to tell you that if Higbee sat, Brycen Hopkins would be the next man up.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, Higbee is expected to play.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos | Knee Injury | 50/50
Jerry Jeudy was limited all week with a knee injury. Although it feels like the Broncos' wideout is often injured, he actually has consistently played when being listed on the final injury report. Since 2020, Jeudy has been on the final injury report six times - he played 100% of the time. In the instances where he missed time, he was declared out early. This does not speak to the specifics of his injury, but given that all we have is "knee injury" as his injury designation, we don't know the particulars anyway. Jeudy is another game-time decision but I think there is a good chance he plays in a juicy match-up vs. the Chicago Bears.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns | Shoulder Injury | 50/50
Everyone is hitting the panic button following the news around Deshaun Watson, and it's understandable given the fact that some of the reports are troubling.
Deshaun Watson threw a couple of halfhearted passes before stopping and talking to the trainer during the open portion of practice. Appears to also have something on his right shoulder under his jersey.
— Chris Easterling (@ceasterlingABJ) September 29, 2023
This is another injury that we do not have a lot of specifics about, but reading between the lines, it sounds like a shoulder contusion/possible shoulder soreness. This can come down to pain management, and in most cases, players can be given something pre-game to get them through the game. Watson is a game-time call, but I think we should plan on him suiting up.
Sunday Update: Watson is officially out.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints | Shoulder Injury | Likely Inactive
Probably the most surprising news this week is that Derek Carr looked good in practice and per Saint's beat writer Nick Underhill, has "a very real shot at starting."
Looks like Derek Carr has a very real shot at starting. Looked sharp throwing passes today. Led the first-team offense. Had good velocity. Accurate. Threw downfield during routes on air. Sharp in red zone. Saw nothing that appeared limiting.
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) September 29, 2023
I am going to stick with the data and perceived healing times for AC joint sprains. On average, AC joint sprains result in a 2-week absence both because they are very painful and have a high risk of re-injury. The ligaments that hold this joint in place need time to heal. Of all the QB injuries I've analyzed, AC joint sprains have the highest risk of re-injury. All these reports are promising for Week 5, but for Week 4, I still think it is unlikely.
Sunday Update: It is surprising to see but, Derek Carr is active. Of all the QB injuries, AC Joint sprains carry the highest re-injury risk. If he lands on that shoulder wrong, Carr could be at risk of not finishing the game.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers | Groin Strain | Likely Inactive
Miles Sanders was limited to start the week and then ended up not practicing on Friday due to a groin strain. This is an injury that Sanders has been managing all season, and it sounds like either it has finally caught up to him or he aggravated it this week. Signs point to Chuba Hubbard being the starter in Carolina.
Sunday Update: Sanders is active.
Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens | Toe Injury | Likely Active
Justice Hill's toe injury might only result in a brief absence. Early reports Saturday point to Justice Hill playing in Week 4.
#Ravens RB Justice Hill (questionable, toe) expected to play vs #Browns, per sources.
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 30, 2023
RB Melvin Gordon likely to get another call-up from practice squad
Gus Edwards cleared the concussion protocol, so with him and Hill active, Melvin Gordon and Keynan Drake are likely banished to irrelevance again.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Games
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers | High Ankle Sprain | Likely Inactive
Austin Ekeler is listed as doubtful for Sunday afternoon's game. This is good information to know, given it is a later game. Typically, high ankle sprains result in >3 weeks missed. Combine this with the fact that 94% of players since 2017 listed as doubtful do not play, and we officially have another Joshua Kelley week upon us.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders | Concussion | Likely Inactive
As of Friday, Jimmy Garoppolo was in concussion protocol, and although he is officially questionable, I would lean toward the sign of doubtful. Most NFL quarterbacks miss at least one game with a concussion - 78%, to be exact.
Sunday Update: Garoppolo is officially out.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Games
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals | Thumb Injury | 50/50
Marquise Brown was limited this week with a thumb injury, and it sounds like he is going to be a game-time decision. The severity of this injury really dictates whether a player can play or not. I have not seen a lot of reports about it, which leads me to believe it is minor. My best advice is to circle back Sunday morning to see if there is any development on this injury.
Deebo Samuel San Francisco 49ers | Rib Injury | Likely Active
After not practicing all week, it sounds like there is real optimism that Deebo Samuel will play through his rib injury and dress for Sunday's game. This points to no fracture and comes down to pain management for the 49ers' WR.
The 49ers appear to be optimistic WR Deebo Samuel will be available to play Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) September 30, 2023
Sunday Update: Deebo Samuel is active. In all games where Deebo has played following an injury, on average his fantasy production decreases by 30%.
Monday Night 7:15 PM EST Game
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants | High ankle sprain | Likely Inactive
Although Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable for Monday's game, the numbers are against him playing. Since 2010, 81% of NFL RBs have missed >1 week with a high ankle sprain. So, even with an extra day of rest, it does not seem likely that Barkley will play in Week 4.
Regarding Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley - high ankle sprain
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 29, 2023
77% of RBs have missed >2 weeks
81% > 1 week
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I’d have backup plans for this weekend pic.twitter.com/Fa1Q0nOxJ2
The Monday games are always tough, but this is not the instance I would be willing to risk it. Unless we have definitive word by Sunday, I would be playing another player in my RB slot.
Sunday Update: Barkley is listed as doubtful now per the team website.