WEEK 16 PREPARATION
I often base my decision-making on following stats, trends, and matchups, as well as a few hunches. These thoughts are based on those observations.
10 THOUGHTS WORTH THINKING FOR WEEK 16
Nick Mullens might just work out in Week 16 - The fourth Vikings starter at quarterback this season, Nick Mullens, had a productive Week 15 at Cincinnati. He threw for 303 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions involving the trio of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. Ty Chandler was also productive on the ground, with over 150 total yards and a touchdown. The big question is, can he do it again this week vs division-rival Detroit? Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing an average of 246 yards per game and 1.8 touchdown passes per contest. The numbers are similar against wide receivers, allowing 177 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. The Lions' run defense has been fairly stout. Since Week 10, they have allowed 3 rushing touchdowns to running backs, and no one back has exceeded more than 51 yards rushing in a game. While the ground game (and Ty Chandler) may struggle, the passing game should be front and center for Minnesota in a must-win matchup to stay in the playoff race.
Consider these two quarterbacks for your starting lineup - Baker Mayfield has 12 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions in his last six games. He stood on his head last week against Green Bay. Can he do the same against Jacksonville? The Jags have allowed an average of 2.0 touchdown passes per game since Week 10. I like Mayfield's chances of another strong outing. Justin Fields will face a Cardinals team that allowed four touchdown passes each to Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford in their last three games. If Fields can take advantage of that weakness and also get his rushing yards, this could be a monumental week for the Bears.
Hold the phone on Jordan Love - Yes, he has 13 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in his last six games but his Week 16 opponent is Carolina. Wait, Carolina? Shouldn't that be a favorable matchup? Not so fast. Carolina is third in total defensive yards allowed and passing yards allowed. They have had eight games where the opposing quarterback failed to reach 200 yards passing. Defense, especially pass defense, has not been a big problem for Carolina this season. If you have been relying on Love this far in the playoff stretch, you may want to consider a different option as your starter this week.
James Cook Round 2? - The Bills will face the struggling Chargers in Week 16. This game is in Los Angeles, but will it matter? The Chargers forgot to show up in their Week 15 game against Las Vegas, and as a result, Brandon Staley was relieved of his duties as head coach. Will the players have any will to fight another game? Injuries have hurt their drive to compete, and it looks like they are counting down the days until the end of the season while the Bills are fighting for a playoff berth. Will interim head coach Giff Smith bring out the fight, or will he go through the motions in a lost season? More importantly, will his players buy in? One team is in the doldrums while the other is flying high. Buffalo unleashed James Cook last week against Dallas, and he finished with a career-high 179 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving with 2 total touchdowns. The Bills are starting to click on offense, and if they can secure a ground game to go with a potent passing game, they will be a formidable team against any opponent. Cook has a chance to finish in the top 10 this week and should be a popular start.
Injured players you should avoid - Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) is a big one. His injury is likely a type II or III AC sprain and should keep him shelved at least for this week. The Chargers are tight-lipped on any news associated with Keenan Allen (heel), and the only source we have is his practice status. Keep an eye on this, but with the team giving up against Las Vegas and a new interim coach in place, it would be shocking if Allen rushes back. Michael Pittman Jr (concussion) would need to pass the concussion protocol to suit up and play this week. If he isn't through a limited practice by Thursday, there is a good chance he will miss Week 16. Sticking with the Colts, Jonathan Taylor (thumb) may be back this week, but Zack Moss is also expected to play. Both active and playing could negate the other, not to mention both are dealing with injuries.
Players returning from injury just in time - Aaron Jones has been a no-show all year and Green Bay is very conservative when it comes to playing injured players. If there is a doubt of re-injury, Green Bay usually uses caution. Jones played last week against Tampa Bay and had 13 carries for 53 yards, but he also added 4 receptions in a semi-limited effort. He should see additional touches this week in a good rushing matchup against Carolina. Plus, he will have the benefit of not having to share duties with A.J. Dillon, who is out with a thumb injury. Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) should return to action this week for Kansas City. The Chiefs, losers of three of their last five games, could use his aggressive tenacity. The Miami Dolphins had a resounding 30-0 victory over the New York Jets last week, even without Tyreek Hill. However, Hill is considered the driving force of the team's offense, and his presence on the field has resulted in many positive outcomes. Though he is currently dealing with a high ankle sprain, it appears that he will play in the upcoming game. In hindsight, it was a wise decision to rest him last week, as he wasn't needed. Now, facing Dallas in a crucial game, Hill is expected to make a significant contribution towards Miami's division title hopes. It is advisable to include Hill in your lineup this week as he looks to be a safe bet. Consider yourself lucky if your team advanced without Hill in the lineup in Week 15. Chris Olave (ankle) is looking probable for his Week 16 Thursday night game at the LA Rams. Olave has 5+ catches in ten games this season but only four touchdowns. He isn't a lock for big numbers, but he should provide a solid contribution in terms of reception volume.
Ezekiel Elliott could be a playoff savior - Ezekiel Elliott's Week 16 outlook would be better if this game was in New England instead of Denver, but this is a good matchup regardless. Elliott has done well in place of the injured Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) with 16 receptions in his last three games, along with decent, but not great, rushing stats. Stevenson may return in Week 17, so Elliott gets one more week to have a firm grasp on the #1 running back duties. Denver has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10, including an average of 127 rushing yards to backs in that time frame. There is a chance for a productive outing for Elliott this week. He is a worthy flex option who could be the missing piece your team needs to keep you on top at week's end.
Rashee Rice may be on several championship teams - The Chiefs rookie wide receiver has become the team's passing identity over the last few games. Travis Kelce has drifted off some while Rice has been given a red carpet to the end zone with WR1 numbers in his last four games (8-107-1, 8-64, 7-72-1, and 9-91-1). This week the Chiefs will battle the Raiders in a game that has playoff implications for both teams. Look for Rice to be a key target for Patrick Mahomes II as teams try to keep Travis Kelce at bay. The addition of Isiah Pacheco's return and Rice's resurgence may be enough for Kansas City to find their form and finish strong with a high playoff seed.
Garrett Wilson, come on down! The quarterback for the Jets in Week 16 is yet to be named because Zach Wilson is in the concussion protocol, and Trevor Siemian looked horrendous last week against Miami. Could Aaron Rodgers make his return this week? Do the Jets even dare put him into a situation that is a lost cause for the season? It would seem at this point that Rodgers is likely not playing this season, but wouldn't it be great if he did? This week's opponent, Washington, is the best possible matchup a team could hope for, but this league also saw the Raiders score 63 points after failing to score a touchdown in 20 straight possessions. Washington has surrendered 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3, 0 touchdown passes this season. Tommy Devito threw for nearly 250 with 3 scores. Geno Smith tabbed almost 370 with 2 scores. Desmond Ridder managed 307 yards with 2 scores. Those are the weaker results - What can Trevor Siemian Do? He'll do something. Everyone does against the Commanders. Who is going to benefit? Garrett Wilson. Opposing team's WR1 vs Washington include Cooper Kupp 8-111-1, Tyreek Hill 5-157-2, CeeDee Lamb 4-53-1, Darius Slayton 4-82-1, DK Metcalf 7-98, JuJuSmith-Schuster 6-51, A.J. Brown 8-130-2, Drake London 9-125, D.J. Moore 8-230-3, A.J. Brown again 9-175-2, Stefon Diggs 8-111, Courtland Sutton 5-66. That is a long list of successes for opposing WR1s vs Washington this season. Garrett Wilson, you're up next, even with Siemian under center.
Jake Browning's clock may have struck midnight - The Bengals will be without Ja'Marr Chase, leaving Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Tanner Hudson as the primary receiving targets. This may be a big receiving game from Joe Mixon and Chase Brown, but the Bengals are losing stars left and right. The matchup against Pittsburgh and Mason Rudolph could be a snooze fest that results in a 10-9 final score. Browning has looked sharp in the past few games, but will he be able to lift a rabbit out of a hat without Ja'Marr Chase on the field against a back-against-the-wall Steelers defense? This has all the makings of a Mike Tomlin return-to-form game. To make matters even more intriguing, it just so happens that Mason Rudolph is 3-0 in his career against the Bengals. Browning was a great fantasy playoff story but his time may be out this week. He could prove the doubters wrong, but there are too many odds stacked against him. Look elsewhere for a starter this week.
Good luck this week, and thank you for reading. Go earn your ticket to the Championship Game.
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