Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Week 15

It feels like we were drafting just a month or so ago, but here we are in week one of the fantasy playoffs. There is no more time for patience and, unless you earned a first-round bye, no reason to look beyond week fifteen… yet. Let's see what we can do to survive the late-season chaos and live to fight another day.

A couple of quick comments about how to approach this round of games. First, matchups can be vital and should be fully analyzed but don't over-think situations and outsmart yourself. When in doubt, go with the players that got you to the dance. Second, analyze your situation and understand where you stand with the matchup. Are you a heavy favorite? If so, don't gamble as much. Are you an underdog? If this is the case, swing for the fence and pack your lineup with upside. If the matchup is pretty even, play the guys you know to be dependable and swing for the fence anywhere your lineup has a potential hole.

Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers are not a plus matchup for any position. Nor are they such a poor matchup that you should consider sitting anyone against them. The only exception to the latter is for corners. Corners rarely put up good tackle totals against San Francisco, and Brock Purdy has not thrown an interception to a corner since week six.

Atlanta Falcons

As bad as their record is, the Panthers have been a rather solid matchup for most positions, especially pass rushers. Since week seven, they have allowed an average of 3.4 sacks per game to defensive linemen and edge defenders. The problem is that Atlanta lacks players good enough to take advantage. Calais Campbell might be worthy for those in gamble mode.

The only Falcon that is a matchup-proof must-start is Jesse Bates III. Kaden Elliss is a high-floor option, but his upside is fairly limited. For anyone in a dire situation, Nate Landman was out last week with a sore knee, so Andre Smith got the start as the second linebacker. Smith posted a solid 5-3 with a forced fumble against the Saints, but be aware that the Falcons' second linebacker, no matter who it is, is playing no more than about 75% of the snaps in recent weeks as the Falcons are getting safety DeMarcco Hellams more involved in sub-packages.

Baltimore Ravens

Kyle Hamilton missed time in week fourteen with a knee injury. He tried to return but was unable to finish the game and is considered week to week with an MCL sprain. Hamilton insists he will be ready by Sunday, but there is a good chance Geno Stone will get the start versus Jacksonville. Stone reached double-digit points in seven of the first nine games, working mostly as a replacement for Marcus Williams, so if he goes, the numbers could be pretty good.

Buffalo Bills

A.J. Epenesa left in the first quarter of the week 15 game with a rib injury. His absence from the rotation gave Leonard Floyd and Gregory Rosseau a bump in playing time over their normal 50-55%. They should see a little more action this week as well if Epenesa is out, but the Cowboys are not a good matchup for edge defenders. Since week seven, Dallas has allowed an average of 4-2-1 to the edge position as a whole. That is not many points to spread among three or four players.

Micah Hyde left Sunday's game with a stinger, so his status for week 15 is in question as of late Tuesday. Taylor Rapp stepped in and will get the call this week if Hyde is out. Dallas doesn't give up big plays to safeties or corners, but the Cowboys are a solid matchup for both positions in terms of tackle production. Slot corner Taron Johnson led the team in tackles last week at 6-3, adding a forced fumble and a pass breakup. He should have another solid outing this week.

Carolina Panthers

The Falcons are middle of the pack in terms of sacks allowed, but defensive linemen put up a lot of tackles against them. That bodes well for Derrick Brown, who makes a lot of tackles for an interior lineman. Brown is an excellent player, but the key to his IDP success is playing time. He's seen at least 85% of the snaps in every game since the team's week seven bye. Against the Saints last week, he went 5-5 with an interception on 50 of a possible 52 snaps.

Chicago Bears

Jaquan Brisker put up great numbers for us as a rookie last year. For most of this season, he has been far less productive on the stat sheet. His first game with double-digit points came in week six. Since then, Brisker has double digits in five of six games, culminating with his career-best of 13-4 with 2 passes defended and a forced fumble last week. Normally I would warn against chasing the points after a monster game like that. This time, I'll make an exception because the Browns have allowed the second most points to safeties since week seven.

Cincinnati Bengals

Logan Wilson and Jermaine Pratt are every-week starters for most managers that have them. For those managers stacked enough at the position that it is a decision, play them this week versus Minnesota. Since the injury to Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have allowed the third most points to linebackers.

Early in the year, Minnesota was a stellar matchup for corners. They have fallen to number eight over the last couple of months but are still a solid opponent. If you are one of the many managers streaming at the corner position, look at Chidobe Awuzie, who has double-digit points in both games since Cam Taylor-Britt was injured.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have injury issues at several positions. None bigger than at safety, where Grant Delpit landed on IR this week with a sore groin, and Juan Thornhill has a strained calf. With Rodney McLeod already on IR, Cleveland finished last week's game with Ronnie Hickman at free safety and D'Anthony Bell at strong. With Delpit out, Bell could be an option, but you might want to see if there is a better one. Chicago ranks 22nd in points allowed to safeties over the last eight weeks.

Cleveland's linebacker position was void of IDP value for much of the season, but Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has emerged recently. He has double-digit points in four of the last five games, including a big outing versus Denver in week twelve and eight solo stops versus Jacksonville last week. Pair that with a Bears offense that is second only to the Commanders (by a fraction of a point) in points allowed to linebackers over the last two months, and Owusu-Koramoah is as close to a must-start as it gets for a Browns' linebacker this year.

Myles Garrett continues to see his normal workload each week, but it is clear that the injuries, and especially the sore shoulder, have taken their toll. He had one solo stop in week fourteen, making Garrett 3-2-0 over the last three games combined. It's good to dance with the date that brought you, but when that player can't dance, it's okay to go elsewhere.

Dallas Cowboys

Stephon Gilmore posted what I believe is a career-high nine solo tackles against the Eagles. This was a result of him shadowing A.J. Brown all night. Gilmore could travel with Stefon Diggs this week, which could mean another productive game for the veteran corner.

Managers almost have to start Micah Parsons every week, but if you have other strong options, consider them. Buffalo has allowed less than a sack and a half per game and the sixth-fewest points to the edge position since week seven.

Denver Broncos

P.J. Locke continues to impress both on the field and in box scores. In three starts for the suspended Kareem Jackson, Locke has 13 solo stops and 9 assists. Those are good numbers on their own, but it's his splash play production that is particularly impressive. In those columns, Locke has 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pair of pass breakups. He has one more opportunity before Jackson returns to convince the coaching staff to keep him in the starting lineup. The matchup with Detroit will put Locke's playmaking ability to the test, though. Opposing safeties tend to produce good tackle totals, but the Lions have not allowed a sack to a blitzing safety this year. Locke showed up on the practice report as he did not participate on Tuesday, so his status needs to be monitored.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit defense has struggled in recent weeks, giving up at least 26 points in five straight games since their bye, with an average of 30. As a result, we are seeing different looks and some new faces in their lineup, especially in the secondary. In the loss to Chicago last week, Brian Branch had his role reduced by nearly half, seeing 52% of the action. Tracy Walker was benched altogether, with Ifeatu Milifonwu getting the start at strong safety.

At linebacker, Jack Campbell (6-4) got the start ahead of Derrick Barnes (5-4), but Barnes ended up playing 87% of the snaps to Campbell's 59%. Detroit fielded three linebackers on over half of their snaps. Even the defensive line saw some shuffling as John Cominsky made the start over Josh Paschal. None of that worked, as they gave up 28 points to the Bears, so who knows what the coaching staff will try next. It's a volatile situation that is best avoided if possible.

Houston Texans

Injuries are the reason that Blake Cashman has not been able to sustain a starting role at the NFL level. Just when it looked like he had won the job and a full-time role, the injury bug bit again. Cashman played just 20 snaps before suffering a hamstring injury. The Tuesday update from the Texans tells us he will miss at least a week or two. That opens the door for Christian Harris and Denzel Perryman to hold near-every-down roles, possibly for the rest of the fantasy playoffs. Harris has double-digit points in three of the last four games, including a season-high versus the Jets last week.

Despite the stellar matchup with the Jets, Will Anderson Jr. followed what looked like his breakout game in week thirteen with an extraordinary vanishing act. Anderson showed up with an ankle injury on the first practice report of the week. But he played 41 snaps before the injury, so that is not the reason for the complete lack of production. If you played him last week and survived the goose egg, he has another excellent matchup with a Titans team that allows 12 combined tackles, 2 sacks, and .7 turnovers per game to the edge position.

The Jets shut down Anderson but had no answer for Jonathan Greenard, who was 5-1-2 with a pair of batted passes. He's been rock solid all year, so if you have him, play him in this one.

Jalen Pitre has been a disappointment but is on the rise of late. The 7-1 he recorded last week was his second-highest point total of the season. Keep that in mind for week 16 or next year, but think hard before sticking him in your lineup this week. Tennessee is allowing fewer than seven solo stops per week to the safety position as a whole.

Indianapolis Colts

This one goes out to dynasty managers, be they alive this year or looking toward next. The Colts are working Nick Cross into the lineup down the stretch. He saw 36% of the snaps in week thirteen and was up to 48% versus Cincinnati last week. This is a good sign for his future value.

We all knew well in advance that E.J. Speed would be inactive with a sore knee. Not so many managers knew ahead of time that Ronnie Harrison Jr. would make the start and play virtually every snap at weak-side linebacker. Harrison was relatively quiet in the tackle department at 3-1 but his pick-six more than made up for it. Speed returned to full practice participation on Tuesday and should be back in the lineup against the Steelers.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andre Cisco was questionable going into the game with a sore shoulder. He started but was not able to finish the game after suffering a groin injury. Andrew Wingard should get the call if Cisco is out.

Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Bolton went 5-3 with a pass breakup in his first game back from IR. The numbers were not great, but most importantly, Bolton played full-time, seeing 92% of the snaps. His production should be better this week, compliments of a matchup with the Patriots, who have allowed the sixth most points to linebackers.

Mike Edwards made the start at free safety for the injured Bryan Cook. Edwards led the team in tackles with ten solos and an assist against Buffalo, but don't get too excited about him. The Chiefs' free safeties are known to have a big-bang game once in a while but generally hold little IDP value that can be counted on.

Justin Reid was in and out of the lineup on Sunday with some sort of minor injury. There has been no mention of it since the game, so it does not seem to be a factor going forward.

Las Vegas Raiders

Through week fourteen, the Chargers were a poor matchup for pass rushers and a strong one for defensive backs. With Justin Herbert on IR, we can no longer expect that to be the case. This will likely be a much different and possibly much less successful offense the rest of the way. Look for the Chargers to lean more heavily on the run and short passing game. Maxx Crosby is matchup-proof, and this turn of events could be a plus for Robert Spillane, but I'm concerned about Nate Hobbs and Tre'Von Moehrig here.

Los Angeles Chargers

Kenneth Murray Jr. is finally playing and producing how we thought he would when he was drafted in round one four years ago. He's coming off a game that saw him post a season-best nine solo tackles with three assists and a sack. There are some good reasons to be a little nervous about him this week, though. The Raiders were a below-average matchup for linebackers even before Josh Jacobs limped off the field with a quad injury last week, and when these teams met in week four, Murray went 2-2 with a batted pass for his second-lowest point total of the season.

Los Angeles Rams

Week fourteen was flashback time for the Rams when John Johnson III tied for the team lead in solo stops with seven. With Quentin Lake out, Johnson got the start and played every snap at strong safety. Coach McVay announced early in the week that Lake is expected to be available. That likely means he returns to the starting strong safety role as well, though nothing is certain here. That said, when last the Rams had all their safeties available, they ran a big nickel on 71% of the snaps with Johnson as the third safety. If you are in one of those underdog situations or simply need a better option at safety, Lake could be your answer. The Commanders have allowed the fifth most points to the position since week seven.

Miami Dolphins

One thing we learned from week fourteen is what the Dolphins think of David Long Jr With Jerome Baker out of action, the coaching staff elected to play backup Duke Riley as their every-down starter and play caller on defense. Long played 89% of the snaps but did not move into the lead role as many expected.

Minnesota Vikings

Ivan Pace Jr. has been nothing short of impressive since stepping into the starting lineup. At 7-6-1 with an interception, Pace put up his best fantasy performance of the season against the Raiders. He won a lot of games for IDP managers last week, but be careful how far you try to ride that wave. The Bengals are currently the worst matchup in the game for linebackers, so Pace is not likely to give us another big game here. The matchup will be much better in week 16, but the word out of Minnesota is that Jordan Hicks is close to getting back on the field. He is not likely to play on Saturday but could be available just in time to mess up our plans for the divisional round.

New Orleans Saints

Marcus Maye landed on IR last week, so Jordan Howden stepped in and stepped up. The rookie tallied 8-2-1 with a forced fumble and a pass breakup against the Panthers. The big game was an eye-opener and puts Howden on the dynasty watch list, but be careful if you are considering him for your playoff lineup. Carolina was the third-best matchup for safeties. The Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest points to safeties since week seven.

New York Jets

Week fourteen gave us yet another miserable performance from our Jets linebackers. C.J. Mosley totaled 2-2 with a batted pass, and Quincy Williams 3-2 with a breakup. There is nothing to see here beyond a shocking, lopsided win over the Texans, who could get nothing going on offense. How bad was it, you say? D.J. Reed led the team in solo tackles with four and in fantasy points with 10.5.

The game script explains last week, but how do we explain why Mosley has six or fewer points in three of the last four games while Williams has double-digits in just two of the last six? The Dolphins are a mediocre matchup for linebackers, so I'm not counting on either of these guys getting back on track this week.

Philadelphia Eagles

Reed Blankenship took a knee to the helmet in the first half of Sunday's game and is currently in concussion protocol. It is too early to tell if he has a shot at playing against Seattle. Rookie Sydney Brown stepped in to finish the game and is in line to start if Blankenship fails to clear.

Philadelphia's linebackers were at the top of the watch list last week. Unfortunately, we didn't learn much from the Sunday night fiasco. Shaquille Leonard saw action on 17 snaps, most of which came late in the game when the outcome was decided. It was not enough of a glimpse to give us any idea what the plan might be going forward. Leonard could see considerably more action against the Seahawks, or he could not. What we did see last week is that neither Nicholas Morrow (78%) nor Zach Cunningham (74%) played every snap. Some of that could have been due to the score. Still, regardless of why, the shaky situation and the matchup with a Seattle team that has given up the third-fewest points to linebacker since week seven are more than enough to keep all of these guys on the bench.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are in a tough stretch. Injuries and losses to struggling teams have them circling the drain. As they try to hold things together with chewing gum and duct tape, Blake Martinez saw his first action for the team in week fourteen. Elandon Roberts led the inside linebackers in playing time with 46 of a possible 57 snaps. Mykal Walker got the start but worked in a time-share with Martinez. Morrow got 25 plays, and Martinez 21. Roberts remains the only viable IDP option from the group at this time. It will be interesting to see if Martinez has a bigger role this week.

Pittsburgh has been dealing with injuries to the inside backers for a month or so. This week, they could be without both starting edge defenders as well. Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt are working through concussion protocol and are in danger of missing week fifteen. Markus Golden and Nick Herbig would be the starters if neither Highsmith nor Watt is cleared.

Seattle Seahawks

Devon Witherspoon was knocked out of Sunday's game after just a few plays with a hip pointer. While painful, hip pointers are not serious injuries, so the Seahawks expect him to be available against the Eagles.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are playing great defense, but they could be short a couple of starters when they face Arizona. Charvarius Ward is nursing a sore groin, Dre Greenlaw is day-to-day with a hip injury, and Javon Hargrave is dealing with a sore hamstring. All three were out of practice early in the week, but the team remains optimistic they will play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Devin White was inactive, as expected. What was not anticipated by most was K.J. Britt getting the start ahead of SirVocea Dennis. Britt managed a decent 4-4 with a pass breakup on a 90% play share. There has been no update on White's status since last week, but it somehow doesn't feel like either White or the team are pushing for him to get back on the field. The Packers are a poor matchup for linebackers anyway, so avoid this situation if possible.

Tennessee Titans

Statistics tell us that the Dolphins are a poor matchup for pass rushers. Harold Landry III's three-sack performance against them says otherwise. Landry has been hit-or-miss in the sack column, with weeks 13 and 14 representing the first time this year he has been credited with one in consecutive games. He has, however, been consistent in the tackle columns, with at least four solo stops in six of the last eight games. The Texans have been a tough matchup for pass rushers, but that was with C.J. Stroud under center. With Stroud expected to miss this week, all bets are off on that one. All I can tell you is I'm starting Landry everywhere I can.

Washington Commanders

We always hope for good news on the injury front when teams come out of their bye week. That is not the case with the Commanders who put Jamin Davis on IR Monday. It is unclear if David Mayo or Khaleke Hudson will be at weak-side linebacker the rest of the way. Mayo stepped in at middle linebacker when Cody Barton was hurt. Hudson is listed as the backup to Davis, but that often means nothing.

That's a wrap for week 15. Best of luck in those playoff games, and I hope you are still with us next week.

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