Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Week 13

Week twelve was a strange one. There are always a few guys that either underperform or overperform. Week twelve gave us more than usual of each, with a boatload of linebackers coming in well shy of their normal/expected production and a bunch of defensive backs putting up big points. For those of you who always feel this stuff only happens to you, in four of the nine IDP leagues I play, my opponent had at least two of those defensive backs with touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals

It raised an eyebrow when Kei'Trel Clark showed up in the box score at 5-4. Then we learned that Clark got the start over Marco Wilson, who was benched. The Cardinals are doing what a lot of teams without postseason hopes are doing: they are looking at options and changing up personnel to see what they have. Clark was highly productive for us early in the year and picked up right where he left off when he was replaced by Antonio Hamilton Sr. in week five.

If the Cardinals had played well on defense and won last week's game, there might be a reason to think they would go with the same lineup again. Not only were they killed on the scoreboard, but the Cardinals lost some guys to injury as well. The bottom line here is that we will likely see a different lineup in week 13, so don't chase the numbers.

With Kyzir White on IR, Krys Barnes got back on the field. Unfortunately, it was in a far lesser role than many of us were hoping for. Barnes managed seven combined stops on 27 snaps. Josh Woods has taken over the lead role at linebacker, but his production does not exactly match up to the role. He was 4-1 on all 67 snaps against the Rams, giving Woods ten tackles and two assists in his two starts combined.

Atlanta Falcons

Jesse Bates III turned in one of those monster performances, going 7-5 with a forced fumble and a long interception return for a score. Tip of the hat to the Godfather, Gary Davenport, for playing him against me this week in the Huddle Experts league. Both Gary and I had top-5 scores. Unfortunately for me, he was number one.

The Falcons were high on DeMarcco Hellams all summer and throughout training camp. Then we didn't hear much about him for a while. Atlanta is not yet on to next year, but they are walking the razor's edge. Their shuffle at safety is more about trying something to hopefully make the team a little better for the final push. To that end, Hellams and Richie Grant platooned at safety. With some overlap when both were on the field in three safety looks, Hellams played 53% and went 4-3, while Grant was reduced to 75% of the action and finished 3-1 with a pass breakup. It is hard to say where this is going or how quickly it will get there. One clue might be that Hellams was the strong safety at some key moments late in the game, and he held up well in those situations.

A ripple effect of the safety situation is that Nate Landman's snaps were reduced to 74%. That was his lowest share since taking over the starting job in September. Likewise, the three tackles and one assist matched Landman's lowest production since inheriting the job.

Unlike the Cardinals' experiment, this one seems to be a success, so we might see more three safety looks and a lot more of Hellams going forward. Atlanta plays the toothless Jets this week so we don't want to start any of these guys if we can keep from it. That will give us a chance for another look.

Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Queen left Sunday's game for a few plays to have his shoulder looked at. He returned to finish the game and looked fine, but a linebacker with a sore shoulder is like having a receiver with a broken finger. It can be a problem. The bye comes at a good time for Queen.

Buffalo Bills

Despite playing in the rain against an Eagles offense that ran the ball 32 times, Terrel Bernard was one of those linebackers who let us down. The interception salvaged the day to some extent, but we all expected more than three tackles and two assists. The good news is Bernard is fine and played his normal role.

Tyrel Dodson did not fare any better, going 3-1 on a 74% play share. Meanwhile, Dorian Williams was limited to one snap.

Carolina Panthers

Coaching changes are the main topic of discussion when it comes to the Panthers this week. Fortunately, or maybe unfortunately, those changes were all about the offense and should not have much of an effect on the defense.

What likely will affect the defense, is the shoulder injury that took Vonn Bell out of Sunday's game. With all the other news to focus on, we may not get an update on Bell's status until later in the week but be prepared for bad news.

With C.J. Henderson and Jaycee Horn still out, David Long Jr. became the seventh player to start a game at corner for the Panthers this season. He went 5-2 and performed well in a close game. That might be enough to get him another look If Henderson is not back this week.

Unlike Terrel Bernard, Frankie Luvu did not bail out his managers with a splash play. His 1-1 was a mega-bust for a guy who has not fallen short of seven combined tackles since week four. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-fewest points to linebackers on the season so the poor matchup can be blamed to some extent. The good news is that Luvu also played every snap as usual. This week's matchup with the Buccaneers is not a particularly good one, but it's not a reason to sit Luvu.

Deion Jones was seeing a steady increase in playing time, but that came to an end in week twelve when he logged 11 snaps.

Chicago Bears

After he was the most targeted corner in the game through the first eleven weeks, a lot of managers were burned by Tyrique Stevenson's absence on Monday. He showed up late in the week as questionable with an ankle and was inactive. To pour salt in the wound for those managers that either didn't catch his questionable status or elected to gamble on the plus matchup with Minnesota, his replacement, Terell Smith, recorded eight solo stops.

Cincinnati Bengals

Logan Wilson was sidelined for the last few plays of Sunday's loss with an ankle injury. The update from Zac Taylor on Monday is reason for optimism. Taylor said Wilson is day-to-day, but the injury is not considered serious. Cincinnati plays Jacksonville on Monday, so Wilson will have an extra day to heal. If you gamble on him playing, it might be a good idea to pick up Akeem Davis-Gaither for insurance.

Confirming what we learned in week eleven, Jordan Battle (3-5) logged 59 of 71 snaps at strong safety against the Steelers. Nick Scott played 14.

Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett suffered a shoulder injury in week twelve. He said something popped and left the stadium with his arm in a sling. After being checked out thoroughly, the Browns on Monday reported no structural damage and Garrett might be available for week 13. It feels like this story is not yet over. Keep an eye on his practice status as we move through the week.

It was a banner week for Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who played his biggest role (90%) and recorded his best production of the season against Denver. Owusu-Koramoah had seen no more than 82% of the playing time in any previous game, and 7-5-1 with a forced fumble is among the best single-game numbers of his career. The big game might influence some managers to start him this week. Before making that decision, be aware that Denver is the number one matchup for linebackers, while this week's opponent, the Rams, have allowed the third-fewest points to the position.

Dallas Cowboys

Damone Clark had a strong outing against Washington on Thanksgiving day. It was the fourth time this season he reached seven solo stops. Clark's assignment on most plays was to shadow Commanders' leading rusher, Brian Robinson. Robinson led his team with 17 touches, so Clark made a lot of plays. The spy approach may not work so well this week against a Seattle team that has no running back to feed as Washington does. The Commanders are currently the third-best matchup for linebackers; we have to look much further down the list to find Seattle in the bottom half of the league.

The Cowboys are one of the teams lining up visits with Shaquille Leonard. They could use his moxie and veteran leadership, but if he could still play at a high level, Leonard would still be in Indianapolis.

Detroit Lions

Managers patiently waiting for Jack Campbell to land a starting gig could finally get their wish. Or maybe not. Alex Anzalone went down late in Thursday's game and is expected to miss time with a wrist injury. The question is, how will the Lions compensate for the loss? Campbell and Derrick Barnes have been sharing time at middle backer with Anzalone working on the weak side. Moving one of those guys outside is certainly an option since they both have the skill set and experience to make the move. That said, we should not forget Malcolm Rodriguez, who has been earning his paycheck on special teams this season but is a proven commodity as a solid linebacker.

Green Bay Packers

Jonathan Owens has stepped up nicely in the box scores over the last five games. None of his numbers have been bigger than last week's 8-4 with a fumble recovery and return for a score. Part of his success is because Owens shifted to strong safety in three of those four games, standing in for Rudy Ford. Ford and Darnell Savage were practicing on a limited basis leading up to the Thanksgiving day game. With another ten days to recover, we could see one or both of them back in the lineup this week. The question then becomes, has Owens played well enough in his five-game audition to keep a starting job?

Devonte Wyatt left last week's game with a concussion and is currently in protocol.

Houston Texans

Houston's linebackers have been a moving target with a lot of production when we get a hit. The week twelve version saw Christian Harris lead the way, going 7-5 on 97% of the snaps. Blake Cashman (4-2) also held an every-down role with a 97% share, while Henry To'oto'o went 3-1 on 33%. We have seen a different look from this group virtually every week. With Denzel Perryman having served his suspension, we can safely expect him to have a substantial role in week thirteen as well. There are two things we have learned from this game of musical chairs. One, Cashman is the team's best/most explosive linebacker, and two, that has no bearing on how the coaching staff divvies up playing time. Adding to the dilemma this week, Denver is the best matchup in the game for linebackers.

Sheldon Rankins has done nothing over the last two games, suggesting the numbers from his previous two outings were a mirage. In week twelve, his playing time was slashed to 36% as an exclamation point.

Indianapolis Colts

At 5-1, E.J. Speed's numbers were not impressive versus the Buccaneers. On the other hand, he had more solo stops than Zaire Franklin, who went 3-4 in this game. Most importantly, Speed logged 95% of the snaps, confirming that he will move into a full-time role with the release of Shaquille Leonard. That's the positive for Speed. The negative is matchups with the Titans, Bengals, and Steelers over the next three weeks. Cincinnati has allowed the fewest points to linebackers on the season, while Tennessee is fourth and Pittsburgh seventh on that list.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Speaking of the Bengals being the kiss of death for linebacker production, they play Jacksonville on Monday Night Football this week. We can't sit Foyesade Oluokun who is the fantasy game's top linebacker, but we might want to sit Devin Lloyd, who is currently LB21.

Cincinnati allowed more than three sacks in a game just once while Joe Burrow was under center. In the two games since his injury, they have given up nine. That's great news for those of us with Josh Allen. He's been a wildly inconsistent, boom-or-bust play for us. I'll be banking on a boom this week.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders parted ways with both Jaylon Smith and Marcus Peters this week. Smith never got a chance to make an impact, but Peters was a starter. His release followed a sideline confrontation with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Guess we know who won that argument.

With Peters gone, Nate Hobbs will be joined in the starting lineup by Amik Robertson and recent waiver claim, Jack Jones. Las Vegas has the bye week to determine who will start and who will play the nickel role.

Marcus Epps aggravated his neck injury against the Chiefs. The stinger initially happened in week 11, but Epps was cleared to play in week twelve. The bye could allow enough time to be ready for the next game, but the aggravation of the injury could add time to the recovery. If Epps is not available, Isaiah Pola-Mao would get the call.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were among those teams looking to shake things up in the secondary last week. After releasing J.C. Jackson a while back, they benched Michael Davis and Ja'Sir Taylor in favor of Deane Leonard and Essang Bassey. The results were mixed on the field, so it's hard to say who will join Asante Samuel Jr in the lineup against New England this week. Leonard had a good statistical outing versus Baltimore with seven solo stops.

The Chargers are struggling, but no edge defender in the game is hotter than Khalil Mack. He is 36-12-13 with five batted passes and four forced fumbles in just eleven games and is 19-2-6 with three passes defended over the last four contests. No juicy matchups remain on the schedule for Mack, but the only bad one is week sixteen when they face Buffalo.

Los Angeles Rams

Quentin Lake earned the start in week eleven. He passed the eyeball test on the field and put up a solid seven solo stops but was sidelined with a hamstring and sat out week twelve. Lake has not been ruled out, but the team is pessimistic about his chances of playing in week thirteen. Instead of going back to Russ Yeast last week, the Rams rolled out their former starter, John Johnson III at the position. Johnson was rather quiet statistically, going 2-2 with a pair of pass breakups, but he logged 87% of the playing time. Johnson is a proven commodity who will be productive if given the chance, especially if he works at strong safety like last week.

Michael Hoecht is the biggest three-down edge defender in the game and is predominantly an edge-setting run defender. He has been a high-floor option for us all season based on solid tackle totals, putting up at least four combined stops in every game. After posting half of a sack in the first six games, the light has come on for Hoecht as a pass rusher. He is 17-9-4 over his last five games, including 4-1-1 in week twelve. Not only is this a great time for him to get hot, but The Rams' remaining schedule includes the Browns, who have allowed the second most points to edge defenders, the Giants, who are third, the Commanders, who are fifth, and the Ravens, who rank ninth.

Kobie Turner was rather quiet early in the season, but the light seems to have come on for the rookie. He finished 3-1-2 in week 12 and is 12-6-3 over the last three games. The matchups could help him to finish strong.

Miami Dolphins

Miami got the easy win over the Jets, but they lost star edge defender Jaelan Phillips to a torn Achilles in the process. The loss puts Andrew Van Ginkel back in the starting role and makes him a virtual must-start the rest of the way, or at least for the next three weeks when Miami plays Washington, Tennessee, and has a rematch with the Jets.

The Dolphins plucked Jason Pierre-Paul off the Saints practice squad to fill the void. He should see some action, but is highly unlikely to be an IDP factor.

Jevon Holland came out of week twelve with a sore knee. The injury is not believed to be serious, but his availability for week thirteen is in question. Brandon Jones would get the start if Holland misses time.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints' defensive stat sheet from week twelve looked more like what we expected it to be all season. Pete Werner led the team in tackles at 7-1, followed closely by Marcus Maye at 5-3. For Werner, it was his first strong outing since week three, making it more of an outlier than a sign of things coming around. For Maye, the numbers mark three games in a row with 100% participation and at least nine fantasy points. That is five of seven on the year. The Saints' next two games are against the Lions and Panthers, who are both plus matchups for safeties.

Alontae Taylor went 3-3, and Paulson Adebo 4-0 against the Falcons. Those numbers are not impressive, but they are respectable, considering the matchup. The Saints placed Marshon Lattimore on IR, so Taylor and Adebo are set to be the starters for at least four games. Those matchups include the Lions, who have allowed the tenth most points to corners, followed by the Panthers with the second most, the Giants with the most, and the Rams, who rank as the third-best matchup for corners.

Cameron Jordan has been an ironman throughout his long career, but he is in danger of missing week 13. Jordan was initially said to have suffered a shin injury, but on Monday, that was corrected to read ankle. The team is still evaluating the situation. If Jordan is out, Tanoh Kpassagnon will be in line for the start.

New York Jets

Want to know what is going on with Quincy Williams? Look at the matchups. Williams has double-digit points in eight of eleven games. What all eight of the opponents in those games have in common is they are all top-16 matchups for linebackers. Williams has eight or fewer points in three games. In all three of those games, the opponent is among the ten worst matchups for linebackers. Looking ahead, this week's opponent, the Falcons, ranks 14th, followed by the Texans, who are the sixth-best matchup. The Jets see Miami again in week 15 but finish the fantasy season with the Commanders and Browns, who rank third and fifth, respectively. If the trend holds, Williams will be there for us in four of the next five games.

D.J. Reed has not been as true to the matchup but he has 17 tackles, 2 assists, and an interception in the last two games. Atlanta is a middle-of-the-pack matchup this week, but the Dolphins and Commanders are great matchups in weeks 15 and 16.

Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Cunningham moved into the lead role after Nakobe Dean returned to IR after the week nine game. Cunningham gave us three strong outings and was on the way to a huge week twelve when he came up lame with a hamstring injury. We are still awaiting an update on the severity of the injury, but it looks like we will see Nicholas Morrow in the lead role this week, with Christian Ellis as the other linebacker. Morrow finished strong in week twelve at 7-5, with a lot of that production coming in the second half, while Ellis managed a solid 5-2 on just 27 snaps.

Philadelphia is among the teams lining up to kick the tires on Shaquille Leonard.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers added Blake Martinez and Myles Jack last week, but it was Mykal Walker getting the start and handling 77% of the snaps as the sidekick to Elandon Roberts last week. Neither starter had big numbers, but they were playing the Bengals so we did not expect much from them going in. Pittsburgh gets Cincinnati again in week 16. Between now and then, they play the Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts. All three of those teams are middle-of-the-road matchups.

With Minkah Fitzpatrick still on the mend and Keanu Neal landing on IR, Trenton Thompson and Damontae Kazee were the safeties against the Bengals. Fitzpatrick is expected to practice this week and could return to face Arizona.

Seattle Seahawks

Julian Love became the Seahawks' third safety when Jamal Adams returned in week six. Exactly what that means changes from week to week. In the six games Adams has started, Love saw at least 52 snaps three times but no more than 30 in the other three games. He was on the field for 60 of 66 plays and went 6-4 last week. With games against the Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles in the next three weeks, Love could put up great numbers, provided he gets the opportunity. Seattle played three safeties on 91% of the snaps against the 49ers in week twelve.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Lavonte David on the shelf due to a groin injury, rookie SirVocea Dennis got the start against Indianapolis. At 5-1 with a pass breakup, Dennis did not have a big game but managed to outscore Devin White. The Panthers are a poor matchup this week, as are the Packers in week fifteen if Dennis is still in the lineup. On the other hand, Atlanta in week fourteen, and especially the Jaguars in week 16, are plus matchups for linebackers.

YaYa Diaby has been a red-hot waiver addition over the last couple of weeks. He was nearly shut out by the Colts, but before you sour on him too quickly, be aware that Diaby played 66% of the snaps in week twelve, which was more than any other Tampa Bay edge defender, and the team's next four games are against the Panthers, Falcons, Packers, and Jaguars. All four teams have given up top ten points to edge defenders.

Tennessee Titans

K'Von Wallace put up good numbers on just 24 plays in week eleven. Enough so that the coaching staff made him a starter in week twelve. Wallace responded by going 8-1 on 84% of the snaps. Those numbers will have a lot of managers looking to add him this week. Take a look at the schedule before you make that move. He has an outstanding matchup with the Dolphins in week fourteen, but the rest of the schedule for Tennessee is against teams that are bottom ten matchups, including three against teams that rank 28 or lower.

For those watching to see if Monty Rice would move past Jack Gibbens and take most of the snaps last week, sorry to be the bearer of bad news. The two continued to share time at the position, with Gibbens out-snapping Rice 35 to 23.

Washington Commanders

Cody Barton put up modest numbers (4-2) in his return from injury but was back in the full-time role. Barton handled every defensive snap, while Jamin Davis's role was reduced to 41 of 54 plays. Remember that Washington is one of the two teams with a week 14 bye. They also have matchups with the Dolphins, Rams, and Jets, who are all less-than-desirable matchups for linebackers.

That does it for week thirteen. Best of luck this week as we try to claw our way to the post-season.

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