Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.
This week, we'll focus on adding a couple of low-cost veterans to our Dynasty rosters.
*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*
Quarterback
Theme of the Week: Acquiring Geno Smith
Geno Smith's dynasty market value is not markedly different than when the calendar turned the page to the 2023 offseason. Since then, Smith has received a new contract from Seattle, and the team passed on drafting a quarterback of the future, instead adding a wide receiver in Round 1 to bolster Smith's weapons and double down on his 2022 breakout season. Smith has a palatable $31 million cap hit in 2024 with $17 in dead cap. Outside of a poor 2023 season, expect Smith on the roster and at least a bridge to a young quarterback. Smith has a better situation than 2022 (seasoning for the offensive line building blocks, added Jaxon Smith-Njigba), yet he is priced as if he is doomed to drop at least 10 spots for his 2023 finish or have minimal odds of playing his way into being a longer-term starter for Seattle. As a point of comparison, Smith is valued similarly to Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones by the market and not far ahead of Sam Howell. Smith had a better season in 2022 than the likely top year by all of them combined in their respective careers.
Key trade idea: DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Kadarius Toney for Geno Smith, James Conner, Calvin Ridley
Hopkins for Conner is essentially a wash (single-season plays and likely weekly starters of the non-elite subset), and Ridley is an upgrade over Toney. This leaves Amari Cooper for Geno Smith. Unless Cooper rivals his peak powers from Dallas (elite WR1 territory) this season, this is a lopsided deal from a "What bet are you making?" standpoint. Play the premium in the Superflex format and shift wide receiver depth to rebalance when possible. Ridley could be repackaged for potentially a Round 1 pick in-season, and Conner helps a dynasty team's RB-WR roster ratio pre-Week 1.
Key trade idea: Baker Mayfield, 2nd for Geno Smith
The range of outcomes for Smith is a higher band than Mayfield, who is playing to stay in the NFL and certainly be anything more than a backup beyond this season. Smith can be considered more of an anchor Superflex profile with one more quality season and retaining his job. The Round 2 pick is a small price to pay for the ability to shift profiles in this overt fashion.
Footballguys Sigmund Bloom has Geno Smith as a strong QB2 and matchup QB1 in his recent tiers article.
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