Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.
This week, we'll focus on adding a couple of low-cost veterans to our Dynasty rosters.
*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*
WIDE RECEIVERS
Theme of the Week: Acquire Profiles and Upside
Three players stand out as high-variance dynasty bets heading into Week 1: Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, and Kadarius Toney. Thomas has four seasonal aPPG finishes as WR8 or better, along with another abbreviated season of WR19 in aPPG. The past two years (essentially three) have been littered with injuries and time off the field. However, Thomas' 2.42 YPRR (yards per route run) efficiency for his career is an elite number. The big question with Thomas is health - the same as Beckham and Toney - where if Thomas has a stretch of activity, he is an unquestioned difference-maker in his career.
Odell Beckham is trending the right way for Week 1, and the Baltimore depth chart added Beckham on a meaningful one-year contract, along with Zay Flowers' drafting in Round 1, notably this offseason. Beckham, like Thomas, has been a wildly efficient player in his career (2.13 YPRR) with five top 10 aPPG finishes. The most recent one was four years ago, but the DNA of an impact fantasy option is paired with an open depth chart and promises of a pass-heavier attack in 2023.
Kadarius Toney lacks the proven production of Thomas and Beckham, but his 2.14 YPRR is elite and the pairing with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II is intoxicating. The depth chart is also open with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, an ancillary element of passing games in his career, Skyy Moore coming off a middling-at-best rookie season, and Rashee Rice, an incoming Round 2 rookie. Durability and dependability are the watchwords for Toney this season. When Toney runs routes, he has been dynamic after the catch and on a per-route basis. Should opportunities find him, Toney has impact potential.
Key trade idea: Cole Kmet for Michael Thomas
Key trade idea: Josh Palmer for Michael Thomas
Key trade idea: Terrace Marshall for Michael Thomas
Thomas is a cheap shot at upside, and using any dynasty asset, which is a low-probability bet, is a sound strategy. All three options above are low or lower upside compared to Thomas. Kmet, despite a new contract, is a middling athlete and on a stagnant passing, independent of his lagging efficiency in his career. Josh Palmer was interesting last season as an injury-away option to both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. However, the team splashed the depth chart with Quentin Johnston in Round 1 and crowded the depth chart (against Palmer) even more. Terrace Marshall is off to a rough start in his career and is on the bust track. Add in a rookie quarterback and competition on the depth chart in Carolina, and Marshall is well worth shipping off for the prospect of Michael Thomas being healthy for even part of a season.
Our Ryan Hester included Michael Thomas on his Late-Round Difference Makers Article in August.
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