The NFL season is a chaotic, four-month-long marathon. The same chaos that makes it entertaining makes it difficult to process in real time. As the season winds down and the offseason begins, think critically about your dynasty teams.
PROCESS THE SEASON
There are a lot of things that happen we do not process during the season that can have a major impact on dynasty teams.
For example, players disproportionately impacted by high-variance stats can look different than you would expect them to look in the future. These players are often producing in a way that is difficult to repeat.
This can be good or bad for your team’s trajectory. Players who score a lot of long touchdowns in their season are the types of profiles that are tough to repeat. These players have two classic regression stats: unnaturally high touchdown rates and points per target.
On the other side, there may be running backs who looked like underperforms, but in reality, they led the league in runs against 8 man boxes, the toughest look for a running back. They may actually overproduce expectations on these runs, indicating good performance in their circumstances, but look bad on a stat sheet because the situation was so rough.
You should also consider the development track of your players. Did the players you expected to break out do so? If they did not, analyze the why. This may help you clear up your future process.
IDENTIFY YOUR TEAM TRAJECTORY
Early in the offseason is a critical time to address the direction of your team so you can figure out key next steps. Take the opportunity to think through how your team performed and what that means for the future. When thinking about your teams, ask yourself the following questions:
- Did you overperform or underperform your expectations?
- How much did injury luck impact your team?
- Did players you were high on miss?
- What does that tell you about your process?
- How do you fix it in the future?
- What holes do you have in your roster?
This early offseason preparation will help you focus your offseason on improving your process and your team. Once you answer your questions about the past season, you can address key questions about the future.
In identifying your offseason direction, ask yourself the following questions:
- What positions do you need to improve?
- What positions can you deal from depth?
- What is your regular season goal for the upcoming season?
TAKEAWAYS
The early offseason is a time of excitement as the NFL Draft preparation takes off in full force. Before you jump into the offseason, make sure to understand what happened in 2023. This is the best way towards a successful 2024 season.