A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). To point out this value, we asked our staff to look through IDP ADP from TheIDPShow.com and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets late in your draft.
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Related: 5 Overvalued Defensive Linemen
Here are the defensive linemen who received the most deep sleeper votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Randy Gregory, Denver Broncos
Kyle Bellefeuil: The Broncos made a hefty investment in Randy Gregory, signing him to a five-year $70 million contract last offseason. Unfortunately, Gregory struggled to stay healthy, only appearing in six games during the 2022 season. However, when Gregory played, he made an impact. In the six games Gregory logged, he notched a pair of sacks, had seven quarterback hits, and brought the heat off the edge with a 17.5% pressure rate, per Pro Football Focus. Talent hasn’t been the issue with Gregory throughout his career, it’s been his ability to stay on the field. There’s no doubt drafting Gregory is a bit of a gamble. However, he’s currently being drafted outside of the Top-65 defensive lineman. Given his low cost to acquire, Gregory is worth a late dart to see if he can stay healthy and deliver ln his second season as a Bronco.
Gary Davenport: In 2022, the Broncos handed Gregory a five-year, $70 million free-agent contract. The return on investment in Year 1 was…not so good—12 tackles and two sacks in six games. It was a disappointment that only served to underscore the durability issues that have dogged Gregory throughout his career. But Gregory generated 20 pressures on just 114 pass rush snaps last year, and his pass rush win rate last season before getting hurt was an impressive 17.5 percent. Those are better numbers than a score of players who are being drafted ahead of him this year. Is there any guarantee Gregory will stay on the field in 2023? No. But getting a talented starter for what amounts to nothing on draft day is worth that risk.
Tripp Brebner: Is there a more enigmatic duo of bookends in the league than Randy Gregory and Frank Clark? Gregory epitomizes the cliche, "Can't stay on the field." When he is out there, he's clearly a skilled pass rusher. He fits nicely into new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph's weak-side edge role, where he can use his athleticism in space to get upfield in an aggressive scheme. He's interesting in big-play-scoring formats with true-position designations.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Drake Jackson, San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Bellefeuil: There is an opening across from star Nick Bosa along the San Francisco defensive line. With both Samson Ebukam (559 snaps in 2022) and Charles Omenihu (573 snaps in 2022) moving on during free agency, the 49ers will turn to Drake Jackson to help fill the void in his second season. Jackson, San Francisco’s 2022 second-round pick, had an up-and-down rookie year. Jackson did flash his talent as a rookie, collecting three sacks in a four-game span (Weeks 3-6). However, he was inactive for five of the team's last six games (including playoffs). Jackson has been reportedly grinding all offseason, bulking up his frame to get ready for the heightened workload. The 49ers bought in minimal competition, and it appears it’s Jackson’s job to lose. Jackson is a late-round pick that could pay dividends if he hits his stride in year two, playing along a talented 49er defensive line.
Matt Montgomery: Opportunity is knocking in San Francisco this year, and the first shot opposite of the elite Nick Bosa will be Drake Jackson. Jackson is a second-year man from USC who didn’t garner many statistics last season but wasn’t exactly playing a bunch. Look for the former second-round pick to improve upon his 14-tackle, three-sack rookie season with many more snaps on a defense loaded with credible talent. It has been documented that Jackson is taking the role more seriously than last year and focusing on building up his body more this year to handle the additional load.
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Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joseph Haggan: I, like many others, was expecting more of a breakout from Tryon-Shoyinka in 2022 after a promising rookie campaign in 2021. While his 2022 season was not a total bust, I would have liked to see more than four sacks. He still raised his total pressures, tackles for a loss, and total tackles. Tryon-Shoyinka was missing his running mate, Shaquil Barrett. With Barrett back and healthy, Tryon-Shoyinka should be freed up a bit more in blocking schemes. Barrett can be a lot to handle. Landing a 24-year-old, former first-round edge defender coming off of a 40 tackle and four sack season outside of the top 65 edge defenders...I am all here for it.
Tripp Brebner: Fantasy gamers might have given up on Shoyinka and almost everyone else in Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers have faith in their former first-rounder. He enters his second season as a starter and gets help on the interior from rookie Calijah Kancey for 2023. Shoyinka's numbers don't necessarily suggest it, but he is on an upward trajectory. He has youth and opportunity on his side.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Arik Armstead, San Francisco 49ers
Tripp Brebner: The 49ers moved their former first-round pick to defensive tackle after giving him a big payday and trading way star tackle DeForest Buckner. Armstead was invisible in his first full season at the position in 2022. At a glance, he looks like a bust. If he can be excused for an injury-plagued regular season, his other 17 games at defensive tackle tell a different story. Through 11 regular-season games from 2021 and 6 post-season games across two years, he has compiled 64 tackles and 9.0 sacks. The team added Javon Hargrave to play alongside him in 2023. Armstead can't help but improve upon his 2022 regular season numbers.
B.J. Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
Tripp Brebner: Hill broke out with 6.0 sacks as a rotational defensive tackle in 2021, and no one noticed. As a starter, he was a fringe DT1 and adequate DL3 in 2022, and no one noticed. The Bengals used early picks on defensive help in the persons of defensive end Myles Murphy and cornerback D.J. Turner. Hill is well-positioned to repeat or even improve upon his 2022 finish. It's the typical drafter, not Hill, who is asleep.
Michael Hoecht, Los Angeles Rams
Gary Davenport: At first glance, Hoecht’s 36 tackles and 4.5 sacks don’t exactly cause the ol’ blood pressure to spike. But as the third-year pro’s playing time increased last year, so did his productivity—all three of those sacks came after Week 12 last season. Now, after being re-upped by the Rams. Hoecht enters 2023 as the elder statesman of a very unproven outside linebacker corps in Los Angeles. He isn’t going to rack up 65 tackles and double-digit sacks but don’t be surprised if Hoecht is the sort who lurks around the fringes of the top-25 most of the season—making him a nice guy to have around as depth and a bye-week fill-in.
Cameron Thomas, Arizona Cardinals
Matt Montgomery: When you’re looking for a deep sleeper, sometimes you gotta search far and wide amongst a depth chart. If you do this for the Cardinals, you’ll find second-year man Cameron Thomas. Thomas finds himself deep on the depth chart, but with three significant losses on the defensive side of the ball, he has as much opportunity as anyone else to make a name for himself. He was a third-round pick from SDSU and showed promise in limited chances. One thing is necessary for someone to be a sleeper, they’re unproven, but they have an opportunity. Thomas fits that mold.