Cracking DraftKings Week 9

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 44.5
• Washington Commanders at New England Patriots - Over/Under 40.5
• Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 46
• New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 37.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Saints at home vs. Bears - Implied Team Total 24.8
• Texans at home vs. Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 21.5
• Ravens at home vs. Seahawks - Implied Team Total 25
• Falcons at home vs. Vikings - Implied Team Total 21
• Browns at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 22.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

It's certainly not sexy but Mac Jones is a super solid cash game play playing at home priced at just $4,900. The Commanders have one of the worst defenses in football as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. And they just traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, two of their best defensive linemen, this week.

Helping this game's fantasy appeal, the Patriots defense is banged up and struggling as well. Sam Howell has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Howell has been a fun fantasy quarterback this season. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (268.3) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and is coming off an awesome performance where he threw for 397 yards and 45 touchdowns last week.

This one pretty much comes down to affordability. Aidan O'Connell can be considered because he's priced at just $4,500. He's at home in a good matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

If looking to pay up at quarterback in cash, Jalen Hurts is at home in one of the best fantasy games of the weekend as both offenses should push each other. Hurts already has six rush touchdowns on the year and leads an Eagles offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA. He also ranks eighth in passing yards per game (267.5) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6).

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara's role is simply ridiculous right now. He ranks second in opportunities per game (26) and sixth in total yards per game (109.6). The Saints are 8.5-point home favorites and the Bears defense only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (27) and is coming off 39 total touches last week. 39! Barkley's workload is locked in and he has a great matchup on tap against a Raiders defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Dameon Pierce's absence puts Devin Singletary in line to start at home as a three-point favorite against the Buccaneers. This is not an ideal matchup but a $4,300 price tag allows for rostering studs elsewhere while simultaneously locking in guaranteed volume.

Gus Edwards saw 21 opportunities last week and turned them into 94 total yards and 3 touchdowns. He's Baltimore's locked in RB1 and is playing at home in a fun fantasy matchup.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown is on another level this year. He ranks eighth in targets per game (10.4), tenth in receptions per game (7.5), second in receiving yards per game (117.4), and sixth in touchdown receptions (5). He just broke the NFL record with his sixth straight game of 125+ receiving yards last week.

Josh Downs popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury and is listed as questionable. His status will need to be monitored but he returned to practice on Friday and should be expected to play. Downs is a talented player and is producing with Gardner Minshew under center. Here are his stat lines over the last two games: 5-125-1 and 7-72. Downs is a cash game lock if active in a favorable fantasy game against a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed.

CeeDee Lamb ranks 22nd in targets per game (8) and ninth in receiving yards per game (90.4). He'll be needed in a competitive matchup against the division rival Eagles.

Jonathan Mingo is a salary saver in cash at just $3,400. There is volatility here but enough to like to consider him in all formats. Mingo ran 39 routes on 40 dropbacks last week, the same amount of routes as Adam Thielen. This is the best fantasy game of the week and the matchup is solid against a Colts defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas ran 45 routes on 55 dropbacks last week and caught 6 of 8 targets for 44 yards and 1 touchdown. He has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The usage and matchup are super solid, especially for a tight end priced at just $3,500.

Without Zach Ertz in the lineup last week, Trey McBride ran a route on 36 of 41 dropbacks and caught 10 of 14 targets for 95 yards and a 1 touchdown. The matchup is tough here but he has locked in volume and is priced at just $3,700.

Darren Waller's absence shines the spotlight on Daniel Bellinger. Bellinger played on 89% of the offensive snaps and ran a route on 18 of 24 dropbacks last week. Daniel Jones returns as the starting quarterback for the Giants and the matchup is favorable against a Raiders defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Saints have a strong defense and are at home. The Bears have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (16.3) of the week.

The odds are low of Matthew Stafford playing. That means you can roster a D/ST at $2,800 ay home against a backup quarterback.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

This Colts at Panthers game is by far the most appealing fantasy game of the week. The Colts are averaging 25.6 points per game and their opponents are averaging 28.6 points per game. Bryce Young gets to face them at home, is priced at just $5,100, and will be low-owned. Young's opponent, Gardner Minshew, averages 268.5 passing yards per game in his four starts, which would rank seventh in the NFL if over the full year. And he has a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed.

C.J. Stroud has been awesome this season but had a down game in Week 8. This is a good spot to take advantage of recency bias and go right back to him. Stroud is at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

This Seahawks at Ravens game projects to be close and Lamar Jackson's ceiling is through the roof in competitive contests. The dual-threat Jackson gets to play at home against an average Seahawks defense that ranks 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor has now played in four games and has theoretically "shaken off the rust." He's put up 120 total yards and 1 touchdown and 97 total yards over the past two weeks. He's still sharing time with Zack Moss but Taylor's offensive snap percentage has increased every week (15% > 42% > 50% > 61%). The matchup is scintillating here against a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.

Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't been the same player this year and is sharing more time with Ezekiel Elliott than we'd like. But there are enough factors in his favor here to make a one-week ceiling game possible. Stevenson is a good pass catcher and could be leaned on through the air more with Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker both out due to injury. And the matchup is ideal there against a Commanders defense that ranks 29th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. His rushing matchup just got more favorable as well after the Commanders traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, two of their best defensive linemen, this week. The Patriots are 3.5-point home favorites.

Josh Jacobs ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22) and gets to play at home against a Giants defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed. The last time Aidan O'Connell started Jacobs caught 8 of 11 targets for 81 receiving yards.

The absence of Drake London this week could funnel more targets Bijan Robinson's way in the passing game. That makes the dual threat Robinson even more exciting as a 4.5-point home favorite against a Vikings team that will be without both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson.

Chuba Hubbard has averaged 18.5 opportunities per game over the past two games as the starter and he's been named the starting running back once again for Week 9. Hubbard is a solid player, is playing one the most exciting fantasy game of the week, and has a favorable matchup at home against a Colts defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.

Writing up Tony Pollard doesn't feel good and neither does rostering him in DFS right now. But that's exactly why he should continue to be considered in tournaments. Despite a frustrating lack of production, Pollard still ranks tenth in opportunities per game (19.7) and surprisingly the Eagles only rank 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen saw another 11 targets last week despite the offensive coordinator change. Thielen remains the alpha receiver in Carolina and is playing in the best fantasy game of the week against a Colts defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Thielen ranks ninth in targets per game (10), second in receptions per game (8.1), and 13th in receiving yards per game (83).

Chris Olave has been down bad lately but it's time to lean into that in tournaments. Olave has an incredible matchup at home against a Bears defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Here are his target totals over his past three games: 10, 15, 9.

The firing of Josh McDaniels seems to have created amazing vibes in the Raiders' locker room. That could help Davante Adams return to dominance, as should the benching of Jimmy Garoppolo. Aidan O'Connell is a gunslinger and the Raiders best quarterback. He helps Adams' ceiling at home against a Giants defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Packers' offense is struggling mightily right now but Christian Watson is priced at just $4,900 and has the skillset to post a ceiling game with one long touchdown catch. He has a favorable matchup against a poor Rams defense that ranks just 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. Watson is coming off a season-high eight-target game last week.

Here are Terry McLaurin's targets over his past three games: 11, 9, 12. Curtis Samuel won't play in this game due to injury. McLaurin has posted solid production all season long and we could finally see his first ceiling game here in a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Samuel's absence also helps Jahan Dotson, who finally popped up into relevancy last week catching 8 of 10 targets for 108 yards and 1 touchdown.

This Colts at Panthers game is by far the most appealing fantasy game of the week. The Colts are averaging 25.6 points per game and their opponents are averaging 28.6 points per game. Michael Pittman has a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed. And he has target totals of 14 and 13 in two of his past three games.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans passing offense has been awesome this season but had a down game in Week 8. This is a good spot to take advantage of recency bias and go right back to them. The Texans are at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. The absence of Robert Woods due to injury projects to funnel more targets in the direction of both Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker are both out due to injury, leaving Demario Douglas as the projected WR1 for Mac Jones in Week 9. That's exciting because the matchup is awesome. The Commanders have one of the worst defenses in football as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. And they just traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, two of their best defensive linemen, this week. Douglas gets to play at home and has seen 13 total targets over the past two weeks.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts has three things going for him this week. Drake London's absence should funnel more targets his way, Taylor Heinicke starting instead of Desmond Ridder upgrades the quality of his quarterback play, and the absence of both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson should allow the Falcons to control time of possession and run more plays.

Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker are both out due to injury, which should cause the Patriots to gameplan getting the ball to Hunter Henry more this week. The matchup here is awesome. The Commanders have one of the worst defenses in football as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. And they just traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, two of their best defensive linemen, this week.

Mark Andrews is a touchdown machine. He has six touchdown receptions, which is two more than any other tight end. The upside is there once again at home against an average Seahawks defense that ranks 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

This Cowboys at Eagles game is a fun one and Dallas Goedert allows for a sneaky way to get some exposure. Dallas has allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game (10) to the tight end position this season.

Team Defenses

The Browns have arguably the league's best defense and are on track to play at home against rookie quarterback Clayton Tune in his first ever NFL start.

The Texans defense has been better under head coach Demeco Ryans and get Baker Mayfield at home.

Key Injuries, Suspensions, Benching, and Firings

• Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson OUT - Upgrade Falcons D/ST
• Drake London OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson
• Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker both OUT - Upgrade Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Curtis Samuel OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, and Jamison Crowder
• Dameon Pierce OUT - Upgrade Devin Singletary
• Darren Waller OUT - Upgrade Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson
• Desmond Ridder Benched - Upgrade Taylor Heincke
• Josh McDaniels Fired - Upgrade Davante Adams and Aidan O'Connell
• Kyren Williams OUT - Upgrade Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman
• Robert Woods OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz
• Zach Ertz OUT - Upgrade Trey McBride
• James Conner and Emari Demercado both OUT - Upgrade Keaontay Ingram
• Matthew Stafford Questionable
• Josh Downs Questionable
• Michael Wilson Questionable

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Bryce Young and Adam Thielen and/or Jonathan Mingo
• C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Alvin Kamara
• Josh Downs (If Active)

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Bryce Young
• Jonathan Taylor
• Chris Olave
• Jonathan Mingo