Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 43.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 45.5
- Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 43.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Eagles on road vs. Commanders - Implied Team Total 25
- Ravens on road vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Chiefs on road vs. Broncos - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Dolphins at home vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Vikings on road vs. Packers - Implied Team Total 21.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | at DAL | $6,600 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | vs. LAR | $6,100 |
| 3 | Desmond Ridder | at TEN | $5,100 |
The Rams at Cowboys game is tied for the highest Over/Under (45.5) on the main slate. That makes both quarterbacks interesting in this matchup. Matthew Stafford ranks fifth in passing yards per game (272.6) and leads a Rams offense that ranks seventh in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and ninth in Dropback EPA. Dak Prescott leads a Cowboys offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and third in Dropback EPA and he has the more favorable matchup against a Rams defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Desmond Ridder is a dual-threat and is priced at just $5,100 against a bad Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And with Ryan Tannehill out due to injury, look for Tennessee's offense to struggle, giving Ridder more possessions and plays to rack up fantasy points.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isiah Pacheco | at DEN | $6,100 |
| 2 | Travis Etienne | at PIT | $7,200 |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara | at IND | $7,300 |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley | vs. NYJ | $8,000 |
| 5 | Kareem Hunt | at SEA | $5,200 |
| 6 | Darrell Henderson | at DAL | $4,800 |
The Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites and Isiah Pacheco has an awesome matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed. Pacheco has been strongly involved all year as he currently ranks 18th in the NFL in opportunities per game (17.6).
Travis Etienne has been awesome this year. He's super talented and receiving insane volume. Etienne ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22.3) and ninth in total yards per game (100). And you can attack the Steelers defense on the ground as they rank 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Alvin Kamara's role is just silly right now. He ranks first in opportunities per game (27), tenth in targets per game (9.8), and sixth in total yards per game (109.5). This looks like a fun fantasy spot on the road in the dome against a Colts team head coach Shane Steichen has scoring points even with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. And the matchup is decent against a Colts defense that ranks 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Saquon Barkley ranks second in opportunities per game (23.5) and has looked healthy since returning from his ankle sprain. Despite being three-point underdogs, the Giants are at home and the Jets rank middle of the pack (14th) in Rush EPA Allowed.
With Jerome Ford questionable due to an ankle injury, Kareem Hunt projects as the starting running back and is priced at just $5,200. Hunt has averaged 13 opportunities over his past two games and that should project as close to his floor this week.
Without Kyren Williams last week, Darrell Henderson played on 57% of the offensive snaps and turned 20 opportunities into 66 total yards and a touchdown. The Rams at Cowboys game is tied for the highest Over/Under (45.5) on the main slate and you can roster the Rams starting running back at just $4,800.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Brown | at WAS | $8,000 |
| 2 | Puka Nacua | at DAL | $7,900 |
| 3 | Adam Thielen | vs. HOU | $6,600 |
| 4 | Jordan Addison | at GB | $5,700 |
| 5 | Rashee Rice | at DEN | $5,000 |
| 6 | Josh Downs | vs. NO | $4,800 |
| 7 | Christian Kirk | at PIT | $5,900 |
| 8 | Drake London | at TEN | $5,100 |
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed these numbers to opposing WR1s over the past five weeks: Stefon Diggs 8-111, A.J. Brown 9-175-2, DJ Moore 8-230-3, Drake London 9-125, and Darren Waller 7-98-1. Brown breaks the record for most consecutive games with 125+ receiving yards in NFL history on Sunday.
Puka Nacua saw his highest target share (41.4%) of the season last week and that was with Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Nacua ranks second in targets per game (11.7), third in receptions per game (8.3), and fourth in receiving yards per game (107.4). He gets to play in a favorable fantasy game tied for the highest Over/Under (45.5) on the main slate.
Adam Thielen gets to play at home in a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. Thielen has been a smash all year as he ranks tenth in targets per game (9.8), fifth in receptions per game (8.2), and 14th in receiving yards per game (84.8).
Jordan Addison without Justin Jefferson is an awesome play priced at just $5,700. He put his first-round talent on full display in primetime last week catching 7 of 10 targets for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has an exploitable matchup here against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Rashee Rice has arrived. There is no more guesswork here. Rice ranks second on the Chiefs in targets (34), receptions (26), receiving yards (305), and receiving touchdowns (3). Another way to say it, outside of Travis Kelce, Rice is THE guy. Rice is a smash play here priced at just $5,000 against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Despite his talent, I didn't expect to be touting Josh Downs this early on in his career but with Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew in, Downs has caught 16 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past three weeks. Minshew is looking his way and Downs is producing. Here's what I said about Downs in the offseason:
Downs caught 195 passes for 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns between his sophomore and junior seasons, and he enters the NFL Draft as an early declare. Downs stands about 5-foot-10, is a good route runner, and has a compact and strong body and legs. Downs offers versatility as he played inside and outside in college, although it is important to note just 136 of his 756 offensive snaps in 2022 came on the outside. Downs has great ball tracking as he goes up and lets defenders know the ball in the air is his. That likely played a role in North Carolina's trust in Downs in the red zone and the end zone as they continually peppered Downs with targets in the most important areas. Downs consistently won when given those chances, which is a good sign for his success at the next level.
Christian Kirk Has been awesome this season. He leads the Jaguars in targets (55), receiving yards (474), and receiving touchdowns (3). Zay Jones is out once again which will continue to keep Kirk's receiving volume high.
Drake London is priced at just $5,100 and has a good matchup here against a bad Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And with Ryan Tannehill out due to injury, look for Tennessee's offense to struggle, giving Desmond Ridder and London more possessions and plays to rack up fantasy points. Here are London's target totals over the past four weeks: 7, 9, 12, 7.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalton Schultz | at CAR | $3,900 |
| 2 | George Kittle | vs. CIN | $5,400 |
| 3 | Trey McBride | vs. BAL | $2,800 |
The absence of Robert Woods due to injury in this one could funnel more targets toward Dalton Schultz, who is priced at just $3,900 and who has caught a touchdown in three consecutive games.
Deebo Samuel's absence last week helped George Kittle see a 23.3% target share and put up a 5-78 line. Kittle should be busy once again this week in one of the best fantasy games of the weekend.
Zach Ertz's absence projects to push Trey McBride toward a near 100% offensive snap share. The matchup is tough but McBride is priced at just $2,800.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | at WAS | $4,300 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | at ARI | $4,200 |
Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times this year, 12 more than any other quarterback. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has been in his bag this season. The Ravens defense ranks second in EPA/Play Allowed and they get to attack the Cardinals, one of the worst offenses in football.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | at WAS | $8,200 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | at ARI | $8,100 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes II | at DEN | $8,400 |
| 4 | C.J. Stroud | at CAR | $6,300 |
Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat machine and leads an Eagles offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play and tenth in Dropback EPA. He has an awesome matchup on tap against a Washington defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Lamar Jackson and the Todd Monken offense are starting to come together beautifully. Jackson decimated one of the best defenses in the league last week by putting up 393 total yards and 4 total touchdowns on the Lions. He now gets to take aim at a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Patrick Mahomes II ranks third in passing yards per game (288.1) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks fourth in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. After throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns last week against the Chargers, Mahomes could once again go nuclear here against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
C.J. Stroud is one of the best storylines of the 2023 season so far. The second overall pick ranks fourth in passing yards per game (276.7) and 11th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) and should be able to keep things going this week priced at just $6,300 against a Panthers defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 13th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breece Hall | at NYG | $5,900 |
| 2 | Dameon Pierce | at CAR | $5,300 |
| 3 | Jonathan Taylor | vs. NO | $6,200 |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | at TEN | $6,000 |
| 5 | D'Andre Swift | at WAS | $6,300 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffrey | vs. CIN | $9,200 |
| 7 | Tony Pollard | vs LAR | $7,500 |
It's truly Breece Hall go time now coming off the bye. Having ramped up during the regular season over the past two months, Hall is ready to dominate a bad Giants defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. And over his past two games prior to the bye, Hall averaged 21 opportunities, which would rank seventh highest in the league if over the full season.
This is the week to take the leap and roster Dameon Pierce in tournaments. Prior to Houston's Week 7 bye, Devin Singletary saw more opportunities (14) in Week 6 than did Pierce (13). This selection could absolutely blow up in our faces but might I remind you we're playing for first by trying to take down thousands of opponents? Situations and workloads can change from week to week, especially coming out of a bye week. Pierce is Houston's most talented running back, he ranks 16th in opportunities per game (18.2), he's priced at just $5,300, he'll be low-owned, and he has an awesome matchup on tap against a bad and banged-up Panthers defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.
Jonathan Taylor is still splitting work with Zack Moss (Although Moss is questionable this week) but he did receive 22 opportunities last week and turned them into 120 total yards and 1 touchdown. The workload is getting there and Taylor is starting to look like himself. He's priced at just $6,200 at home against a Saints defense that ranks middle of the pack (15th) in Rush EPA Allowed.
Last week's situation was bizarre but ultimately, Arthur Smith did the right thing by not forcing Bijan Robinson to play a lot while he wasn't feeling good. Last week's results shouldn't play a role in evaluating Robinson's outlook at all, but we know it will for some. That's good for us. Prior to Week 7, Robinson ranked 14th in opportunities per game (18.7) and 13th in total yards per game (98.3) and he has a good matchup on tap against a banged-up Titans team that ranks EPA/Play Allowed. And with Ryan Tannehill out due to injury, look for Tennessee's offense to struggle, giving Robinson more possessions and plays to rack up fantasy points. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites despite playing on the road.
Game flow should be in D'Andre Swift's favor here as the Eagles are 6.5-point favorites against the Commanders. Swift ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.7) and has a favorable matchup against a Commanders defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Christian McCaffrey ranks sixth in opportunities per game (22.1) and third in total yards per game (118) and gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed. Look for his workload to go absolutely nowhere this week with Deebo Samuel out again due to injury.
The Rams at Cowboys game is tied for the highest Over/Under (45.5) on the main slate. That makes Tony Pollard interesting coming off the bye at home against a Rams defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. The workload is certainly there as Pollard ranks seventh in the league in opportunities per game (20.8).
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nico Collins | at CAR | $5,500 |
| 2 | Tank Dell | at CAR | $4,900 |
| 3 | DeVonta Smith | at WAS | $6,700 |
| 4 | Tyreek Hill | vs. NE | $9,500 |
| 5 | Ja'Marr Chase | at SF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | at DAL | $9,000 |
| 7 | CeeDee Lamb | vs. LAR | $7,600 |
| 8 | Terry McLaurin | vs. PHI | $5,300 |
This is a favorable spot for standout rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud against a Panthers defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 13th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And with Robert Woods ruled out due to injury, look for both Nico Collins and Tank Dell to be plenty busy on Sunday. Collins has been awesome this year and developed into a true WR1. He ranks tenth in receiving yards per game (91.2). Meanwhile, Dell has been an exciting rookie when healthy.
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed these numbers to opposing WR1s over the past five weeks: Stefon Diggs 8-111, A.J. Brown 9-175-2, DJ Moore 8-230-3, Drake London 9-125, and Darren Waller 7-98-1. Now, DeVonta Smith clearly is not the WR1 in Philadelphia. That has been A.J. Brown this year. But is there a chance Smith has a ceiling game as the favorable matchup boomerangs toward him instead of Brown for one week? Yes, there is. And that's how you win DFS tournaments.
Tyreek Hill has been so incredible this season he's in the running for NFL MVP. Hill ranks seventh in targets per game (10.6), ninth in receptions per game (7.6), and first in receiving yards per game (128.9). He's at home against a banged-up Patriots defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Joe Burrow projects to be much healthier coming out of the Bengals' bye and that's great news for the dominant Ja'Marr Chase. Chase ranks first in targets per game (12.2), third in receptions per game (8.3), and ninth in receiving yards per game (92.7). And the matchup can be had after we just saw Kirk Cousins and Jordan Addison carve up the 49ers last week.
Cooper Kupp is coming off a down game so it's time to go right back to him in tournaments in a favorable fantasy game tied for the highest Over/Under (45.5) on the main slate. And then there's CeeDee Lamb coming off the Cowboys' bye in the more favorable matchup against a Rams defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Lamb has been up and down this season but has high upside in this favorable spot.
Terry McLaurin is priced at just $5,300 despite seeing 20 targets over the past two weeks. McLaurin is super talented, projects to be playing with favorable passing game flow, and already put up 8-86 on the Eagles earlier this season.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | at DEN | $8,400 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | at ARI | $6,400 |
| 3 | Dallas Goedert | at WAS | $4,600 |
| 4 | Kyle Pitts | at TEN | $3,800 |
Travis Kelce is back to pure domination. He caught 12 of 13 targets for 179 yards and 1 touchdown last week and put up 9-124 the week before against this same Broncos defense. Kelce should go off once again against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Mark Andrews leads all tight ends in touchdown receptions with five and has a juicy matchup that could help him add to that total against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Dallas Goedert is an elite talent and has 18 receptions for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns over his past three games. He's getting rolling and could keep it going here in a favorable matchup.
It's interesting to see Kyle Pitts continue to be priced so affordably. He has a favorable matchup against a bad Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. This has the makings of a ceiling game.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | at TEN | $2,900 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | at GB | $2,500 |
Ryan Tannehill's absence projects to create some sort of quarterback timeshare between rookie Will Levis and Malik Willis. Levis was overdrafted and Willis has been a disaster early in his career. The Falcons D/ST is priced at just $2,900.
Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing much better than they were last season. This is a fun matchup against the struggling Jordan Love. It's shocking to see them priced at just $2,500.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Justin Jefferson OUT - Upgrade Jordan Addison T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn
- Kyren Williams OUT - Upgrade Darrell Henderson
- Deebo Samuel OUT - Upgrade Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey
- Robert Woods OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz
- Ryan Tannehill OUT - Upgrade Falcons D/ST
- Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Tyrod Taylor
- Pat Freiermuth OUT - Upgrade George Pickens and Diontae Johnson
- Zay Jones OUT - Upgrade Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk
- James Conner OUT - Upgrade Emari Demercado
- Zach Ertz OUT - Upgrade Trey McBride
- Brock Purdy Questionable but expected to be cleared
- Zack Moss Questionable - Upgrade Jonathan Taylor
- Jerome Ford Questionable - Upgrade Kareem Hunt
- Tyler Lockett Questionable
- Darren Waller Questionable
- Curtis Samuel Questionable
- Luke Musgrave Questionable
- Taysom Hill Questionable
- Brandon Johnson Questionable
- Kyler Murray Doubtful - Upgrade Ravens D/ST
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Jalen Hurts and two of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert Runback Option: Terry McLaurin
- Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice
- C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell Runback Option: Adam Thielen
- Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp Runback Options: Tony Pollard or CeeDee Lamb
Flag Plant Cash Plays
Flag Plant Tournament Plays
- Breece Hall
- Dameon Pierce
- DeVonta Smith
- Tank Dell
- Falcons D/ST