Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 49.5
- Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos - Over/Under 45
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Bills on road vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 25
- Seahawks at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 26
- Rams at home vs. Steelers - Implied Team Total 22.8
- Commanders on road vs. Giants - Implied Team Total 20.8
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | vs. Lions | $7,600 |
| 2 | Sam Howell | at Giants | $5,500 |
This Lions at Ravens game is highly intriguing. The Over/Under is set at 41.5, which feels a bit like a hedge by the odds makers. This game could possibly be a relatively low-scoring slugfest between two good teams and defenses. But there's a chance it could be a high-scoring affair between two of the best teams and offenses in the league. Lamar Jackson is a fun dual-threat that can find success in either environment. He's run for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns already and leads a Ravens offense that ranks 11th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
Sam Howell is a fun fantasy quarterback and he gets to play at home in a dream matchup this week against a Giants defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Priced at just $5,500, Howell allows you to pay up elsewhere as well.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D'Onta Foreman | vs. Raiders | $4,800 |
| 2 | Isiah Pacheco | vs. Chargers | $6,100 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | vs. Commanders | $8,100 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | at Ravens | $6,300 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | at Buccaneers | $7,300 |
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are out once again, which puts D'Onta Foreman in line for a large workload. Foreman was really good last season in Carolina as he ranked sixth in NextGenStats Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt and second in Success Rate. Foreman handled 16 touches last week and now gets to play at home against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Isiah Pacheco is priced at just $6,100 and is playing in by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate. He ranks 18th in opportunities per game (17.7) and has a decent matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Saquon Barkley ranks third in the league in opportunities per game (23) and looked good in his return from injury last week, touching the ball 28 times for 98 total yards. He's at home in this one against a Commanders defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Jahmyr Gibbs is returning at the perfect time as David Montgomery is out with an injury. On Friday, head coach Dan Campbell told reporters, "I'd like to say we're going to be careful with him, but the reality is we need him." The matchup is tough against a Ravens defense that ranks ninth in Rush EPA Allowed but the volume should be there. In Week 3 with Montgomery out, Gibbs handled 18 touches.
Bijan Robinson is a dual threat and ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.7) and 13th in total yards per game (98.3). The Buccaneers have a strong run defense but that could equate to even more receiving game work for Robinson in this one.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefon Diggs | at Patriots | $8,900 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Ravens | $8,000 |
| 3 | Marquise Brown | at Seahawks | $5,300 |
| 4 | Josh Palmer | at Chiefs | $4,800 |
Stefon Diggs is having a monster season. He ranks third in targets per game (11), fourth in receptions per game (8.2), and sixth in receiving yards per game (103.3). He has a good matchup against a banged-up and struggling Patriots defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown returned from injury in glorious fashion last week, catching 12 of 15 targets for 124 yards and 1 touchdown against the Buccaneers. Without David Montgomery, St. Brown could once again be leaned upon by the Lions offense in a super competitive matchup against the 4-2 Ravens.
Marquise Brown has seen double-digit targets in four of his past five games and has a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 17th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. 7.5-point underdogs and on the road, the Cardinals project to be throwing a lot in this one.
In two games without Mike Williams, Josh Palmer has played on 86% and 97% of the offensive snaps and seen 8 and 7 targets, respectively. The Chargers at Chiefs has by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate. Palmer is a strong cash play at just $4,800.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Mayer | at Bears | $2,700 |
| 2 | Luke Musgrave | at Broncos | $3,300 |
| 3 | Sam LaPorta | at Ravens | $5,300 |
Michael Mayer played on a season-high 81% of the offensive snaps last week and also ran a route on 67% of dropbacks. He's priced at just $2,700 in a favorable matchup against the bad Bears defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Luke Musgrave is priced at just $3,300 against a bad Broncos defense that ranks 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. The Broncos defense has also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (13.7) to the tight end position so far this season.
Sam LaPorta ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (42), fourth in receptions (29), third in receiving yards (325), and first in receiving touchdowns (3). Despite the tough matchup, LaPorta comes with bankable receiving volume in cash.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns | at Colts | $3,300 |
| 2 | Rams | vs. Steelers | $3,900 |
| 3 | Falcons | at Buccaneers | $2,800 |
Gardner Minshew threw three interceptions and was sacked three times last week. He now has to face the Browns defense, which rank first in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Steelers offense only ranks 30th in EPA/Play and will be without Pat Freiermuth in this one. The Rams are three-point home favorites.
The Buccaneers offense ranks just 21st in EPA/Play, Baker Mayfield has thrown an interception in three straight games, and the Falcons D/ST is priced at just $2,800.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | vs. Chargers | $8,300 |
| 2 | Geno Smith | vs. Cardinals | $6,000 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | at Patriots | $8,200 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Steelers | $6,500 |
The Chargers at Chiefs has by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate and Patrick Mahomes II is in a phenomenal spot here at home against a Chargers defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. This looks to be the spot where Mahomes finally has a blow-up game in 2023. He leads a Chiefs offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and seventh in Dropback EPA and ranks seventh in passing yards per game (265.5) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8).
The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites and have the third-highest implied Team Total (26) on the entire week. Seattle's offense should go off in this one and it's just a matter of how those touchdowns end up being scored as they'll likely be able to do whatever they want. Geno Smith has a great matchup here against a Cardinals defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. He's a strong tournament play with many looking to Ken Walker III to take advantage of this matchup instead of utilizing the Seahawks passing game.
Josh Allen ranks second in DraftKings fantasy points per game (24.2) at the quarterback position, leads a Bills offense that ranks third in EPA/Play and fourth in Dropback EPA, and ranks eighth in passing yards per game (262.7) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). He has a good matchup against a banged-up and struggling Patriots defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
With Kyren Williams out of the lineup due to injury, look for Sean McVay to put the Rams offense on Matthew Stafford's back. Stafford already ranks third in passing yards per game (279.5) and leads a Rams offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play and eighth in Dropback EPA. He has low owned upside here at home.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Jacobs | at Bears | $7,400 |
| 2 | Aaron Jones | at Broncos | $6,800 |
| 3 | Brian Robinson | at Giants | $5,800 |
| 4 | Ken Walker III | vs. Cardinals | $7,000 |
| 5 | Austin Ekeler | at Chiefs | $8,600 |
| 6 | James Cook | at Patriots | $6,400 |
Josh Jacobs ranks second in the NFL in opportunities per game (23.7) but only ranks 30th in total yards per game (86.8). This is a great week to play Jacobs in tournaments because the floodgates should open against a Bears defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Aaron Jones has only played in one healthy game this year. In that game, Jones turned 13 opportunities and 11 touches into 127 total yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bears defense. Jones is supremely talented and has a similarly favorable matchup this week in his return from injury against a Broncos defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Brian Robinson is a fun tournament play priced at just $5,800 in a fantastic matchup against a Giants defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Ken Walker III ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.2) and has an awesome matchup on tap against a Cardinals defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed. The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites and have the third-highest implied Team Total (26) on the entire week.
The Chargers at Chiefs has by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate and Austin Ekeler will be needed as the Chargers try to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II while playing on the road. Ekeler ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.5) and seventh in total yards per game (113) and has a decent matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites against a banged-up and struggling Patriots defense. Priced at just $6,400, James Cook is a fun tournament play with high upside, especially with Damien Harris removed from the running back rotation due to injury.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Lockett | vs. Cardinals | $6,000 |
| 2 | Christian Watson | at Broncos | $5,600 |
| 3 | Terry McLaurin | at Giants | $5,400 |
| 4 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Steelers | $9,500 |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | at Chiefs | $8,600 |
| 6 | Davante Adams | at Bears | $8,200 |
| 7 | Rashee Rice | vs. Chargers | $4,700 |
| 8 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | vs. Cardinals | $3,900 |
The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites and have the third-highest implied Team Total (26) on the entire week. Seattle's offense should go off in this one and it's just a matter of how those touchdowns end up being scored as they'll likely be able to do whatever they want. The passing game has a great matchup here against a Cardinals defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. With DK Metcalf questionable, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are both in play in tournaments. They both ran exactly 39 routes last week.
Christian Watson is extremely talented and athletic and priced at just $5,600 against a bad Broncos defense that ranks 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Terry McLaurin hasn't had an exciting beginning to the season but that should keep his ownership down in a dream matchup this week against a Giants defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Priced at just $5,400, McLaurin is a fantastic tournament play.
With Kyren Williams out of the lineup due to injury, look for Sean McVay to put the Rams offense on Matthew Stafford's back. That's extremely bullish for Cooper Kupp, who has caught 15 passes for 266 yards and 1 touchdown through two weeks.
The Chargers at Chiefs has by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate and Keenan Allen ranks third in targets per game (11), first in receptions per game (8.4), and fifth in receiving yards per game (103.8). He's been dominant and projects for massive volume in this one.
Davante Adams has been very outspoken this week about not getting the ball. This is setting up for a massive squeaky wheel game for arguably the best wide receiver in the game going against the bad Bears defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Rashee Rice played on a season-high 49% of the offensive snaps and ran just one fewer route than Skyy Moore last week. Rice already ranks second on the Chiefs in targets (28), catches (21), receiving yards (245), and receiving touchdowns (2). He's a super fun tournament play in the highest Over/Under (49.5) game on the main slate at home against a Chargers defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | vs. Chargers | $8,000 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | vs. Lions | $5,700 |
| 3 | Darren Waller | vs. Commanders | $5,000 |
| 4 | Gerald Everett | at Chiefs | $3,800 |
Travis Kelce ranks 13th in the entire NFL in targets per game (9.2) and ninth in catches per game (7.2). This is an eruption spot for Kelce in the highest Over/Under (49.5) game on the main slate at home against a Chargers defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Mark Andrews is $2,300 cheaper than Travis Kelce and gets to play at home against a Lions defense that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game (11.5) to the tight end position this season.
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed these numbers to opposing WR1s over the past four weeks: Stefon Diggs 8-111, A.J. Brown 9-175-2, D.J. Moore 8-230-3, and Drake London 9-125. Darren Waller is the Giants' WR1. It is FINALLY Darren Waller week.
The Chargers at Chiefs has by far the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate. Justin Herbert is going to need to bring his A-game to keep up with Patrick Mahomes II and that could equate to more volume for Gerald Everett. This is a sneaky and affordable way to get a piece of this game.
Tight Ends
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos | vs. Packers | $2,600 |
| 2 | Seahawks | vs. Cardinals | $3,200 |
The Broncos defense has been atrocious but they're priced at just $2,600 and will be low-owned. They're at home this week against Jordan Love, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked seven times over his last two games.
The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites and the Cardinals have the fifth-lowest Implied Team Total (18.5) on the week.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- David Montgomery OUT - Upgrade Jahmyr Gibbs
- Kyren Williams OUT - Upgrade Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua
- Justin Fields OUT - Upgrade Tyson Bagent
- Jimmy Garoppolo OUT - Upgrade either Aidan O'Connell or Brian Hoyer
- Pat Freiermuth OUT - Upgrade Diontae Johnson and George Pickens
- Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both OUT - Upgrade D'Onta Foreman
- James Conner OUT - Upgrade Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram
- Damien Harris OUT - Upgrade James Cook and Latavius Murray
- DK Metcalf Questionable
- Daniel Jones Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice Runback Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, and/or Gerald Everett
- Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
- Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp
- Sam Howell and Terry McLaurin
Flag Plant Cash Plays
- D'Onta Foreman
- Josh Palmer
- Browns D/ST