Cracking DraftKings Conference Championships

Photo: USA Today Sports

Conference Championship Games

• Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread 49ers -7
• Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Ravens -3.5

Chiefs at Ravens

• Chiefs:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 11th
    • Dropback EPA: 11th
    • Rush EPA: 16th
    • Points per game: 21.8 (15th)
    • Yards per game: 351.3 (9th)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 19th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
    • Points per game allowed: 17.3 (2nd best)
    • Yards per game allowed: 289.8 (2nd best)
  • Point Differential Ranking: +77 (6th)
• Ravens:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 5th
    • Dropback EPA: 12th
    • Rush EPA: 2nd
    • Points per game: 28.4 (4th)
    • Yards per game: 370.4 (6th)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 30th
    • Points per game allowed: 16.5 (best)
    • Yards per game allowed: 301.4 (6th best)
  • Point Differential Ranking: +203 (1st)

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes II ($6,900) is the best player on the planet, but that hasn't translated into fantasy football super-stardom this season. On the road against a fantastic Ravens defense, this isn't the time to play Mahomes. If believing in Mahomes, the better play would be to bet on the Chiefs to win the game straight up instead.

Entering the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco ($6,500) ranked 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.1). He's seen 25 and 16 opportunities (20.5 per game) in two playoff games this year, respectively. Pacheco is a solid play in all formats as the Ravens' strong defense surprisingly only ranked 30th in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 during the regular season.

Rashee Rice ($6,500) and Travis Kelce ($6,600) are the clear-cut top two receiving options for Patrick Mahomes II. Rice was the star in the Wild Card Round, catching 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 1 touchdown. Kelce was the hero in the Divisional Round, catching 5 of 6 targets for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both are very clearly in play, but Rice is the preferred target. Recency bias will push some ownership toward Kelce, but it's Rice who has a higher target ceiling, with the Chiefs listed as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Playing tournaments on two-game slates requires you to get a little crazy to differentiate yourself from the field. There are some levers we can pull this week but Kansas City is the lowest on that totem pole. There are only two names I would consider at all: Noah Gray ($2,500) and Justin Watson ($3,300). Mahomes is going to need his pass catchers to step up if they hope to win this game on the road against a vaunted Ravens team. He'll need more than just Rice and Kelce to do it. Gray played on 60% of the offensive snaps last week and could have a rare spike week in regards to receptions. Watson played on 612 offensive snaps during the regular season, just 63 fewer than Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Watson has spike week potential within his range of outcomes as he caught 5 of 11 targets for 53 yards and 1 touchdown already earlier this season.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson ($7,700) has all but locked up his second MVP award. Jackson leads a 14-4 Ravens team dominating at just the right time. Baltimore led the league in point differential (+203) during the regular season, and Jackson led an offense that ranked sixth in both Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) on his way to ranking fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (22.3). And Jackson silenced all of the "He struggles in the postseason" talk last week by putting on an absolute clinic against the Texans. Jackson threw for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 100 yards and another 2 scores. The dual-threat Jackson is on a roll and is the best quarterback play on the slate in all formats.

Mark Andrews ($5,000) returns on Sunday, as has been reported for over a week now. The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec believes Mark Andrews will be on "a pitch count of some sort" in the AFC Championship Game. From a tournament perspective, we have learned time and time again two things are true: Players returning from injury are almost always lower owned than they should be/otherwise would be due to recency bias, and these "pitch count" reports are unreliable yet taken as gospel by fantasy football players way too often. What does this all mean? Andrews shapes up as one of the best tournament plays of the weekend. Playing tournaments on two-game slates requires you to get a little crazy to differentiate yourself from the field, and Andrews allows us to do just that by betting on one of the most talented tight ends we've seen enter the NFL in years.

In case you need another reminder, Zay Flowers (5,800) is the truth. He dominated this Ravens team in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858) during the regular season, picking up right where he left off in college by producing and performing at a very high level. Flowers didn't produce much last week, but remember, Jackson only had to throw for 152 yards while dominating on the ground. This contest projects to be way more competitive, which should create a more fantasy-friendly game flow for Flowers. Playing both is a bit too aggressive for my taste, but I'm a fan of mixing in Andrews or Flowers on teams this weekend.

Rashod Bateman ($3,600) played on 65% of the offensive snaps last week, and Nelson Agholor ($3,800) played on 47%. Both are affordable enough to potentially be "The low-owned guy you needed."

The running back position is a mess here with Dalvin Cook ($4,200) mixing in for eight carries last week. All of Cook's touches were late in the game when the result was already obviously decided, but there's also a possibility Cook's playing time will ramp up this week as he continues to get acclimated to his new team. Gus Edwards ($5,500) saw 12 opportunities and Justice Hill ($4,800) saw 15 opportunities last week. All three are stay-aways.