Conference Championship Games
- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread 49ers -7
- Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Ravens -3.5
Chiefs at Ravens
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 11th
- Dropback EPA: 11th
- Rush EPA: 16th
- Points per game: 21.8 (15th)
- Yards per game: 351.3 (9th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 19th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
- Points per game allowed: 17.3 (2nd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 289.8 (2nd best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +77 (6th)
- Offensive Rankings
- Ravens:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 28.4 (4th)
- Yards per game: 370.4 (6th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 30th
- Points per game allowed: 16.5 (best)
- Yards per game allowed: 301.4 (6th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +203 (1st)
- Offensive Rankings
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes II ($6,900) is the best player on the planet, but that hasn't translated into fantasy football super-stardom this season. On the road against a fantastic Ravens defense, this isn't the time to play Mahomes. If believing in Mahomes, the better play would be to bet on the Chiefs to win the game straight up instead.
Entering the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco ($6,500) ranked 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.1). He's seen 25 and 16 opportunities (20.5 per game) in two playoff games this year, respectively. Pacheco is a solid play in all formats as the Ravens' strong defense surprisingly only ranked 30th in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 during the regular season.
Rashee Rice ($6,500) and Travis Kelce ($6,600) are the clear-cut top two receiving options for Patrick Mahomes II. Rice was the star in the Wild Card Round, catching 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 1 touchdown. Kelce was the hero in the Divisional Round, catching 5 of 6 targets for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both are very clearly in play, but Rice is the preferred target. Recency bias will push some ownership toward Kelce, but it's Rice who has a higher target ceiling, with the Chiefs listed as 3.5-point road underdogs.
Playing tournaments on two-game slates requires you to get a little crazy to differentiate yourself from the field. There are some levers we can pull this week but Kansas City is the lowest on that totem pole. There are only two names I would consider at all: Noah Gray ($2,500) and Justin Watson ($3,300). Mahomes is going to need his pass catchers to step up if they hope to win this game on the road against a vaunted Ravens team. He'll need more than just Rice and Kelce to do it. Gray played on 60% of the offensive snaps last week and could have a rare spike week in regards to receptions. Watson played on 612 offensive snaps during the regular season, just 63 fewer than Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Watson has spike week potential within his range of outcomes as he caught 5 of 11 targets for 53 yards and 1 touchdown already earlier this season.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson ($7,700) has all but locked up his second MVP award. Jackson leads a 14-4 Ravens team dominating at just the right time. Baltimore led the league in point differential (+203) during the regular season, and Jackson led an offense that ranked sixth in both Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) on his way to ranking fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (22.3). And Jackson silenced all of the "He struggles in the postseason" talk last week by putting on an absolute clinic against the Texans. Jackson threw for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 100 yards and another 2 scores. The dual-threat Jackson is on a roll and is the best quarterback play on the slate in all formats.
Mark Andrews ($5,000) returns on Sunday, as has been reported for over a week now. The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec believes Mark Andrews will be on "a pitch count of some sort" in the AFC Championship Game. From a tournament perspective, we have learned time and time again two things are true: Players returning from injury are almost always lower owned than they should be/otherwise would be due to recency bias, and these "pitch count" reports are unreliable yet taken as gospel by fantasy football players way too often. What does this all mean? Andrews shapes up as one of the best tournament plays of the weekend. Playing tournaments on two-game slates requires you to get a little crazy to differentiate yourself from the field, and Andrews allows us to do just that by betting on one of the most talented tight ends we've seen enter the NFL in years.
In case you need another reminder, Zay Flowers (5,800) is the truth. He dominated this Ravens team in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858) during the regular season, picking up right where he left off in college by producing and performing at a very high level. Flowers didn't produce much last week, but remember, Jackson only had to throw for 152 yards while dominating on the ground. This contest projects to be way more competitive, which should create a more fantasy-friendly game flow for Flowers. Playing both is a bit too aggressive for my taste, but I'm a fan of mixing in Andrews or Flowers on teams this weekend.
Rashod Bateman ($3,600) played on 65% of the offensive snaps last week, and Nelson Agholor ($3,800) played on 47%. Both are affordable enough to potentially be "The low-owned guy you needed."
The running back position is a mess here with Dalvin Cook ($4,200) mixing in for eight carries last week. All of Cook's touches were late in the game when the result was already obviously decided, but there's also a possibility Cook's playing time will ramp up this week as he continues to get acclimated to his new team. Gus Edwards ($5,500) saw 12 opportunities and Justice Hill ($4,800) saw 15 opportunities last week. All three are stay-aways.
Lions at 49ers
- Lions:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 9th
- Dropback EPA: 6th
- Rush EPA: 7th
- Points per game: 27.1 (5th)
- Yards per game: 394.8 (3rd)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 24th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
- Points per game allowed: 23.2 (23rd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 336.1 (19th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +66 (8th)
- Offensive Rankings
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Points per game: 28.9 (3rd)
- Yards per game: 398.4 (2nd)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 17th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
- Points per game allowed: 17.5 (3rd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 303.9 (8th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +193 (3rd)
- Offensive Rankings
Lions
This game has a higher projected point total by six points, so from a macro perspective, we want to side with this one when rostering players. Jared Goff ($6,300) led a Lions offense that ranked ninth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA, and he ranked sixth in both passing yards per game (265.9) and pass touchdowns per game (1.8) during the regular season. Goff doesn't run, so odds are you'll need at least a three-touchdown passing performance for him to make a difference. That's certainly possible, as Goff threw for three or more pass touchdowns three different times this season. But I'm not sure this is the spot for Goff to thrive on the road against a defense that can generate pressure. Goff is not a priority. Instead, get your Lions offensive exposure through the talented playmakers surrounding him.
David Montgomery ($5,600) averaged 17.9 opportunities per game, and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400) averaged 17.1 opportunities per game during the regular season. In the Wild Card round, Montgomery saw 15 opportunities and scored a touchdown, and Gibbs saw 12 opportunities and scored a touchdown. They each totaled 68 yards. Last week, Montgomery saw 14 opportunities and turned 13 touches into 47 total yards, and Gibbs saw 13 opportunities and turned 13 touches into 114 total yards and 1 touchdown. The Divisional Round results tell the story here: Gibbs is simply the more talented, more explosive, and better player. He's a fantastic play this weekend. But Montgomery makes a lot of sense in tournaments. He's going to be low-owned but he would've scored his 15th touchdown on the year last week had he not been oddly subbed out of the game at the one-yard line for Craig Reynolds. The odds of that happening twice in two games during the playoffs seem extremely low. Montgomery offers more touchdown upside than his ownership percentages will indicate on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) is a superstar. He ranked fifth in targets per game (10.3), third in receptions per game (7.5), and fifth in receiving yards per game (91.4) during the regular season and he's had a strong start to his postseason career as well. St. Brown caught 7 of 9 targets for 110 yards in the Wild Card Round and 8 of 14 targets for 77 yards and 1 touchdown in the Divisional Round. St. Brown has either caught a touchdown or gone over 100+ receiving yards in five of his past six games. Lock him in and don't think twice about it.
Sam LaPorta ($5,400) put all injury concerns to bed by playing in his second consecutive game since his Week 18 injury and catching 9 of 11 targets for 65 yards last week. LaPorta has been a rookie sensation this season, and he'll be needed in a big way on Sunday.
Josh Reynolds ($4,000) played on 78% of the offensive snaps last week, and Jameson Williams ($3,700) played on 58%. Reynolds has seen ten targets in two playoff games, and Williams has seen six targets. Reynolds has solidified himself as the better play, making him a strong cash option. But Williams is the better tournament play as his playmaking ability could propel him into being the affordable, low-owned guy you needed. He's sure to come in lower owned than Reynolds.
49ers
Brock Purdy ($6,400) is the best tournament play of the weekend. Purdy led a 49ers offense that ranked first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and he ranked fifth in passing yards per game (267.5) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) during the regular season. However, due to Purdy's draft position and lack of elite physical tools, many are taking a negative approach toward Purdy right now when it matters most. Especially since he struggled last week. This is the time to take full advantage of that. Purdy is a leader built to shine in moments like the one he'll be in on Sunday. And he's at home with an incredible matchup on tap against a struggling Lions pass defense. Purdy will have a huge game surrounded by elite talent. Book it.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) is clearly the best running back play of the weekend. San Francisco traded for him to be a difference-maker in these specific playoff moments and McCaffrey already ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) during the regular season. The dual-threat stud saw a whopping 17 carries and 12 targets last week! Look for McCaffrey to dominate this favorable matchup and for the 49ers offense to keep it rolling all game long. Lock McCaffrey in. Don't overthink it.
Deebo Samuel ($7,300) got in a limited practice on Thursday (shoulder) but his status remains up in the air for Sunday. This is a tough spot because we know how elite Samuel is when healthy and active, but even if he suits up, it doesn't appear that "healthy" and Samuel are words that will go together this weekend. Instead, use this opportunity to hopefully be able to roster Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900) at a bit of an ownership discount after putting up a total dud last week.
George Kittle ($5,300), on the other hand, continued to produce last week. He caught 4 of 7 targets for 81 yards and 1 touchdown and now gets to attack a Lions defense that allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.8) this season.
If Samuel is inactive, Jauan Jennings ($4,600) will become a very strong play in all formats. Jennings played on 63% of the offensive snaps and caught 5 of 6 targets for 61 yards last week.
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
- Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews
- Patrick Mahomes II, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce