Week 18 is always tough because of varying team motivations. Some teams are treating their game as a must-win (because it is for some squads), and some are ready for the regular season to be over and using Week 18 as another bye. Our Jeff Bell has this covered in full here. But here's a brief rundown.
Teams Playing with Motivation
- Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Philadelphia Eagles (Can get the No. 2 seed with a win and a loss by the Cowboys)
- Detroit Lions (Have an outside chance to get the No. 2 seed)
- Chicago Bears (Can eliminate the rival Packers from the playoffs)
Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 45.5
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 44.5
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 42.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Cowboys on the road against Commanders - Implied Team Total 29.5
- Seahawks on the road against Cardinals - Implied Team Total 25
- Jaguars on the road against Ttians - Implied Team Total 22.5
- Buccaneers on the road against Panthers - Implied Team Total 21.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | at Commanders | $8,000 |
| 2 | Baker Mayfield | at Panthers | $6,200 |
| 3 | Jordan Love | vs. Bears | $6,600 |
| 4 | Sam Darnold | vs. Rams | $5,200 |
The Cowboys can win the NFC East title with a win or an Eagles' loss. They'll be motivated here. Dak Prescott has been fantastic this season and is in the literal dream matchup here against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. Baker Mayfield has a favorable matchup on tap against a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Jordan Love is on an absolute heater. He's thrown for two or more touchdown passes in seven of his past eight games and is priced affordably at home in a must-win game against the Bears.
The 49ers are resting their starters, but Sam Darnold will still have Kyle Shanahan, the architect behind the league's best offense, in his ear. Darnold is at home, priced at just $5,200, at gets to face backups on the Rams.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rachaad White | at Panthers | $7,600 |
| 2 | Khalil Herbert | at Packers | $5,700 |
| 3 | Travis Etienne Jr. | at Titans | $7,300 |
| 4 | Aaron Jones | vs. Bears | $6,300 |
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. Rachaad White ranks sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9), the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites, and White gets to attack a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Khalil Herbert has been busy over the past two weeks. Opportunities: 22 and 21, total yards: 121 and 129, and touchdowns: 1 and 1. Herbert is priced at just $5,700 and gets to attack a struggling Packers defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.
The Jaguars are fighting for a playoff spot. Travis Etienne Jr. ranks sixth in opportunities per game (19.9), and he has a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Like the other running back in this game, Khalil Herbert, Aaron Jones has also been heavily utilized over his past two games. Opportunities: 24 and 21, total yards: 135 and 130. Jones is at home in a must-win game. Chicago's defense has been solid as of late, but Jones is a dual-threat talent that can get there despite the tough spot.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Kirk | at Titans | $3,000 |
| 2 | DK Metcalf | at Cardinals | $7,200 |
| 3 | Chris Godwin | at Panthers | $6,300 |
| 4 | Jayden Reed | vs. Bears | $5,700 |
| 5 | Chris Olave | vs. Falcons | $6,700 |
*Christian Kirk practiced this week, and the Jaguars will reportedly decide on Saturday whether to activate him for Week 18. If Kirk is activated, he's a cash game lock with DraftKings mistakenly pricing him at minimum salary.* Kirk has a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
The Seahawks are fighting for a playoff spot, and DK Metcalf is in a favorable spot against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Metcalf ranks 16th in the NFL in receiving yards per game (73.6) and could put some big plays in this one. He's in play in all formats.
Chris Godwin was having a quiet season, but things have drastically changed over the past month. Godwin has seen double-digit targets and put up 78+ receiving yards in three of his past four games. He can keep it going this week against a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Jayden Reed is the real deal. He leads the Packers in receptions (60) and receiving yards (681) and is tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions (8). Adding in his two rushing scores, Reed leads the entire team with 10 touchdowns. Reed is dealing with a chest injury, so his status will need to be monitored, but he's practiced in a limited fashion on both Wednesday and Thursday. He should be out there and has a decent projected matchup in the slot against Kyler Gordon.
Chris Olave ranks 13th in targets per game (9) and should be heavily fed in this one with the Saints battling it out for a playoff spot.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tucker Kraft | vs. Bears | $3,700 |
| 2 | Evan Engram | at Titans | $5,400 |
There is a chance Luke Musgrave will return this week, but even if so, Tucker Kraft isn't going anywhere. Kraft has seen six targets in three straight games and caught a season-high 6 passes last week for 48 yards. He's priced at just $3,700 and gets to play at home in a must-win game against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (11.1) to the tight end position this season.
Evan Engram's targets over his past six games: 8, 9, 12, 6, 15, 6. Engram is a volume monster right now, which is exactly what we're looking for in cash. And he has a winnable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys | at Commanders | $4,100 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | at Panthers | $3,900 |
The Cowboys can win the NFC East title with a win or an Eagles' loss. They'll be motivated here. Meanwhile, there are reports that many veteran Commanders players won't suit up in Week 18, with the contest being meaningless for them. The Cowboys are 13.5-point favorites.
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. The Buccaneers defense will be plenty motivated against the 30th-ranked offense in the NFL by EPA/Play. The Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geno Smith | at Cardinals | $6,100 |
| 2 | Justin Fields | at Packers | $7,200 |
| 3 | Nick Mullens | at Lions | $5,100 |
The Seahawks are fighting for a playoff berth, and Geno Smith is in a favorable spot against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. His $6,100 price tag is very appealing.
The Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they're still in a rare position where they still have something to play for. They can knock their hated division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, out of the playoffs. And with Chicago's front office likely drafting a quarterback this offseason, look for Chicago to get one more full look at Justin Fields in a Bears uniform. And Fields is in a fantastic spot against a bad Packers defense that only ranks 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Nick Mullens has been named the starting quarterback this week and is in a great spot against a Lions defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Mullens is turnover prone, but he can chuck it. Mullens has thrown for 714 yards and 4 touchdowns in two starts this season. His $5,100 price tag puts him in play in all contests.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Montgomery | vs. Vikings | $6,400 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | vs. Vikings | $6,700 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson | at Saints | $6,600 |
| 4 | Ken Walker III | at Cardinals | $6,500 |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | at Commanders | $6,500 |
The Lions can get the No. 2 seed with a win and losses by the Eagles and Cowboys. Expect Dan Campbell to go all in, especially in the first half. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are in play in a favorable matchup against a Vikings defense that only ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. Montgomery ranks 13th in opportunities per game (17.9) and Gibbs ranks 20th in opportunities per game (17.1).
The Falcons are fighting for a playoff spot, and Arthur Smith is fighting for his job. Smith will have to load up Bijan Robinson, whether he likes it or not. Robinson ranks 15th in opportunities per game (17.6), and the Saints defense is not formidable as they only rank 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Ken Walker III has been banged up as of late but returned to practice on Thursday and will suit up in a must-win game for the Seahawks. Walker has elite home-run hitting talent and that could pay off in tournaments in a big way here against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Tony Pollard has turned in a disappointing season but still ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.8) and has a genuinely awesome matchup here against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8. Pollard's ownership will remain low since he's been disappointing of late. This is a buying opportunity.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | at Commanders | $9,300 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | at Lions | $8,500 |
| 3 | DJ Moore | at Packers | $7,000 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | vs. Vikings | $8,600 |
| 5 | Mike Evans | at Panthers | $7,400 |
| 6 | Tyler Lockett | at Cardinals | $5,600 |
| 7 | Christian Watson | vs. Bears | $4,700 |
What a season CeeDee Lamb has had. He ranks third in targets per route run (28%), third in target share (30%), second in targets per game (10.5), second in receptions per game (7.6), and second in receiving yards per game (103.2). He's in a great spot to put the cherry on top by going bonkers against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Justin Jefferson has finished three full games since returning from injury, and he's seen ten targets in all of them. T.J. Hockenson is out, and trigger man Nick Mullens is back in at quarterback. Jefferson is going to put his elite talent on full display in this divisional matchup with a playoff spot on the line against a Lions defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
The Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they're still in a rare position where they still have something to play for. They can knock their hated division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, out of the playoffs. Look for D.J. Moore to be full throttle this week in a fantastic spot against a bad Packers defense that only ranks 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Moore has put his elite talent on display all year. He ranks seventh in target share (29%), 18th in targets per game (8.1), and 11th in receiving yards per game (81.3).
The Lions can get the No. 2 seed with a win and losses by the Eagles and Cowboys. Expect Dan Campbell to go all in, especially in the first half. Jameson Williams is banged up, and Amon-Ra St. Brown already torched Brian Flores' defensive scheme, going 12-106-1 on 14 targets just two weeks ago.
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. Mike Evans has been fantastic yet again this season and has a good matchup this week against a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Evans already put up 7-162-1 on the Panthers on 12 targets back in Week 13 and ranks 14th in receiving yards per game (77.1).
The Seahawks are fighting for a playoff spot, and the matchup is fantastic against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. All Seattle wide receivers are in play, but Tyler Lockett looks like a stealthy tournament play in this spot. He's been quiet as of late and hasn't scored a touchdown in seven straight games. Yet, Lockett still leads the team in targets (118) and receptions (77).
Everyone already knows about Jayden Reed. The cat is out of the bag there. But Christian Watson was also heating up before his second hamstring injury of the season. Watson has scored in three straight games and caught 7 of 9 targets for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last outing. Players returning from injury are almost always lower owned than they otherwise would be, and expect Watson's return this week to be no different. He's a fun tournament play at home in a must-win spot.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juwan Johnson | vs. Falcons | $3,600 |
| 2 | Jake Ferguson | at Commanders | $4,900 |
| 3 | Trey McBride | vs. Seahawks | $6,000 |
Juwan Johnson was expected to take the next step this year. We had to wait awhile but for whatever reason, we're finally seeing it at the end of the season. Johnson has caught a touchdown in three straight games, has seen 7 and 12 targets over the past two weeks, and just put up 8-09-1 in Week 17. Expect Johnson to be heavily utilized again in a must-win divisional matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game (10.5) to the tight end position this season.
The Cowboys can win the NFC East title with a win or an Eagles' loss. They'll be motivated here. That's great news for Jake Ferguson's upside case in a fantastic spot against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Trey McBride has been a volume monster recently. Here are his targets and receptions over his past five games. Targets: 9, 9, 11, 8, 7. Receptions: 7, 8, 10, 6, 6. He's in a great spot at home against a Seahawks defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA since Week 8.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots | vs. Jets | $3,600 |
| 2 | Bengals | vs. Browns | $3,000 |
The Jets offense ranks dead last in EPA/Play. Even if the Patriots play their backups, Bill Belichick is still at home in a great spot against an awful offense. The Patriots are 2.5-point favorites.
The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed. They'll rest many of their starters. The Bengals are in a good spot here at home against backups. They're six-point favorites.
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson
- Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett Runback Option: Trey McBride
- Justin Fields and DJ Moore Runback Options: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and/or Tucker Kraft
- Nick Mullens and Justin Jefferson Runback Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, and/or Jahmyr Gibbs
Flag Plant Cash Play
- Christian Kirk, if he is activated on Saturday
- Rachaad White
- Jayden Reed
- Tucker Kraft