Cracking DraftKings Week 17

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 48
• Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 47
• San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 48.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Bills at home against Patriots - Implied Team Total 26
• Chiefs at home against Bengals - Implied Team Total 25.8
• Broncos at home vs. Chargers - Implied Team Total 22
• Rams on road against Giants - Implied Team Total 24.3
• Seahawks at home vs. Steelers - Implied Team Total 22.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

The elite quarterback plays are discussed in the tournament section of the article. They can also be considered in cash. But there are two elite cash game values this week to highlight.

*Jacoby Brissett developed hamstring tightness in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. His status must be monitored.* Sam Howell is out and Jacoby Brissett is in. Brissett was solid last year on the Browns and has been strong in limited action this season as well. He has led a touchdown drive on all five full drives with the Commanders. Washington’s offense already ranks first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and Brissett and the Commanders will have to keep chucking it to try to keep pace with the 49ers. Brissett is at home and priced at just $4,900.

Russell Wilson is out and Jarrett Stidham is in. Stidham will be making his first start in Week 17. He did the same last season with the Raiders, throwing for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns. Sean Payton made Stidham a priority in his first Free Agency as head coach of the Broncos, Stidham gets to play at home, and the matchup is favorable against a Chargers defense that ranks 18th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed since Week 8.

Running Backs

James Conner is a dual-threat workhorse. He ran for 86 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 15 and caught five passes for 67 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 16. He has a very exploitable matchup against a struggling Eagles defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.

In four games under interim head coach Chris Tabor, the Panthers offense has become extremely run-heavy. Chuba Hubbard's averages in those four contests: 22.8 opportunities (would rank second in the NFL over the full season), 88.5 total yards, and 0.75 touchdowns. With the new coaching staff's approach, Hubbard is now one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football. He has a favorable matchup here against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. And the game script actually looks quite favorable with Trevor Lawrence out due to injury.

Zack Moss is out again this week. It's fully Jonathan Taylor's show. Taylor received 18 opportunities in his return to action last week and has now scored five touchdowns in his last four games. He's one of the most talented running backs in the NFL and gets to play at home this week. He's a cash play though and not a tournament one because his upside appears a bit capped against a strong Raiders defense that ranks second in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Dual-threat James Cook ranks sixth in the NFL in total yards per game (98.1). The Bills are 11.5-point home favorites against the struggling Patriots.

It's certainly possible Sean Payton's offense will improve with Jarrett Stidham, a more comfortable dropback passer than Russell Wilson, under center. Either way though, Javonte Williams is in a favorable spot at home against a Chargers defense that only ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. The Broncos are 5.5-point home favorites.

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle is out and Tyreek Hill is...well...Tyreek. Hill ranks first in targets per route run (35%), third in target state (30%), second in targets per game (10.4), second in receptions per game (7.6), and first in receiving yards per game (117.2). He's playing in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (47) of the week. The matchup is very tough but the Ravens defense will have their hands full as well. It's a two-way street! And without Waddle, Hill projects to see massive volume.

Chris Olave is in an awesome spot here against a Buccaneers pass funnel that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Olave just caught 9 of 13 targets for 123 yards last week.

DeVonta Smith is on a heater. He's scored a touchdown in five of his past eight games and is in a great spot here at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

The Saints have a reputation for having a solid defense but that hasn't been the case of late. New Orleans' defense only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Chris Godwin is a super fun play in this favorable matchup. Here are his target totals over his past three games: 11, 12, and 10. And Mike Evans is simply just dominating right now. He's put up 1,000+ yards in all ten seasons and 12+ receiving touchdowns in five of his ten seasons. And the Buccaneers are playing at home.

Tight Ends

Marquise Brown is out once again, making Trey McBride the clear-cut number-one option for Kyler Murray in a great spot against a struggling Eagles defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. This Cardinals at Eagles game has the third-highest Over/Under (48) of the week. Starting in Week 8 with Zach Ertz out of the picture, here are Trey McBride's ranks at the tight end position: second in targets (64), first in receptions (51), and third in receiving yards (542).

Chigoziem Okonkwo is an affordable tight-end cash option. This is more of a play allowing for flexibility elsewhere than it is locking in reliability but Okonkwo has been coming on as of late. He's seen 6+ targets in three of his past four games and just produced his best game of the season last week catching six of seven targets for 63 yards and 1 touchdown. He has a favorable matchup here against a Texans defense that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.4) this season.

Team Defenses

Easton Stick has been sacked eight times in two games and the Broncos are 5.5-point home favorites.

Jake Browning has been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions, and fumbled once over his past two games. The Chiefs are seven-point home favorites.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (24.5) behind only Josh Allen. He just broke the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season with 15. He's at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Hurts is the best quarterback play of the week.

This is an awesome time to play Brock Purdy in tournaments one week after he threw four interceptions and then sat out the end of the game with a "stinger" in prime time. Let's zoom out for a second and not be prisoners of the moment. Purdy has been incredible this season and is one of the front runners for the Most Valuable Player award. He leads a 49ers offense that ranks first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and he ranks fifth in passing yards per game (270) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). Purdy has the literal best matchup imaginable against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

The Chiefs don't have the same offense that won the Super Bowl last year but that presents a buying opportunity in tournaments. Mahomes still leads a Chiefs offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, 11th in Dropback EPA, third in PROE, and second in EDPF and he ranks eighth in both passing yards per game (262.5) and pass touchdowns per game (1.7). Mahomes is at home in an incredible matchup against a Bengals defense that was just torched by Mason Rudolph and that ranks just 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

*Kyler Murray is questionable with an illness. His status must be monitored.* This Cardinals at Eagles game has the third-highest Over/Under (48) of the week, Kyler Murray is priced at just $6,300, and Murray has a phenomenal matchup on tap against a struggling Eagles defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

C.J. Stroud returns this week after missing two games with a concussion. This is a reminder Stroud ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (279.3). He's been amazing as a rookie and has a favorable spot at home here against a Titans defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ranks second in opportunities per game (22.4), first in total yards per game (128.8), and first in touchdowns (21). His upside is astronomical against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.

Kyren Williams leads the NFL in opportunities per game (23.1) and ranks third in total yards per game (113.5). Williams is $1,300 cheaper than Christian McCaffrey and is also in a smash spot against a Giants defense that only ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.

The Eagles are 10.5-point home favorites and have the third highest Implied Team Total (29.3) of the week. Swift has seen 21 and 20 opportunities over his past two games. He has a ton of upside if he can avoid the Brotherly Shove from Jalen Hurts against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.

There is optimism Isiah Pacheco will clear concussion protocol and be able to play on Sunday. If so, he becomes one of the strongest tournament running back plays of the week with Jerick McKinnon already out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire dealing with an illness. Pacheco ranks 13th in the NFL in opportunities per game (17.6) and is at home in a great spot against a Bengals defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8. And Pacheco will come in low-owned since his playing status was up in the air for most of the week.

Trevor Lawrence is out due to injury, which should funnel more carries toward Travis Etienne Jr. this week. Etienne has struggled mightily as of late but that pushes his ownership down and we're not playing him for his recent performances. Etienne is in an interesting spot to be a tournament here this week at home against a Panthers defense that only ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. Etienne still ranks seventh in the NFL in opportunities per game (20).

Rachaad White ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.3) and 13th in total yards per game (92). The Buccaneers are 2.5-point home favorites and White is in a solid spot against a Saints defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.

The return of C.J. Stroud this week significantly boosts the value of the entire offense, Devin Singletary included. Singletary had a down game last week in a loss against the Browns and one of the best defenses in the NFL. But just two weeks ago without Stroud, Singletary turned a whopping 31 opportunities into 170 total yards. Singletary is an affordable and sneaky tournament play at home against a Titans defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown hasn't scored a touchdown in four games. He's going to explode again soon and this spot sets up extremely nicely for him. He's at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. And just a reminder Brown is a total monster. He ranks third in targets per route run (27%), first in target share (32%), sixth in targets per game (10.1), sixth in receptions per game (6.7), and fifth in receiving yards per game (92.9).

The 49ers have the highest Implied Team Total (31) of the week. The matchup couldn't be any better for an offense that ranks first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Washington's defense ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Literally every 49er, including Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, could absolutely smash in this spot.

Matthew Stafford is humming right now thanks in part to the talent of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Rams offense ranks seventh in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA and they have a decent matchup on tap against an average Giants defense. Kupps' targets over the past four games: 8, 10, 8, and 12. He's finally healthy and performing. And then there's Nacua who looks likely to set the rookie receiving yardage record. Nacua ranks eighth in targets per game (9.7), ninth in receptions per game (6.4), and seventh in receiving yards per game (88.5).

Rashee Rice is priced at just $6,900 and here are his target totals over his past five games: 10, 9, 10, 9, and 12. With all other Chiefs receivers busting and Travis Kelce slowing down at 34 years of age, Rice is a legitimate total smash right now. He's at home in an awesome spot against a Bengals defense that was just torched by Mason Rudolph and that ranks just 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Terry McLaurin receives a quarterback upgrade with the Commanders benching Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett (*Jacoby Brissett developed hamstring tightness in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. His status must be monitored.*), who has led a touchdown drive on all five full drives with the Commanders. Washington’s offense already ranks first in PROE and third in EDPF and the Commanders will have to keep chucking it to try to keep pace with the 49ers. McLaurin offers an exciting combination of guaranteed volume and big play upside in this spot in a more decent matchup than you would think. The 49ers defense only ranks 14th in EPA/Play Allowed and 13th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. McLaurin is the clear play priced at just $5,500 but Curtis Samuel is in play as well at $4,400. Samuel ranks second on the team behind only McLaurin in targets (83), receptions (57), and receiving yards (565).

C.J. Stroud returns this week after missing two games with a concussion. This is a reminder Stroud ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (279.3). This is obviously a massive upgrade for Nico Collins, Stroud's clear-cut number-one receiver with Tank Dell out for the season. Collins is in a favorable spot at home here against a Titans defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Tight Ends

The 49ers have the highest Implied Team Total (31) of the week. The matchup couldn't be any better for an offense that ranks first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Washington's defense ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Literally every 49er, including George Kittle, could absolutely smash in this spot. Kittle is coming off a 10-target, 7 reception, 126-yard game last week and has the potential to lap the field at tight end to a point where he was someone you needed to have to take down a tournament.

Dallas Goedert has now played three games since returning from his fractured arm. He has seen nine targets in back-to-back games and caught 7 for 71 yards last week. Priced at just $4,800, this is an awesome time to roster Goedert in tournaments at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

The Chiefs just lost to the Raiders and Travis Kelce hasn't scored in five straight games. The vibes are currently not high but we have to realize that allows us to roster Kelce at low ownership since our goal is to take down a tournament against many others. And this is about as good of a spot as Patrick Mahomes II and Kelce could have at home against a Bengals defense that was just torched by Mason Rudolph and that ranks just 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.

Team Defenses

C.J. Stroud's return helps the Texans D/ST as they project to be playing in a favorable game script. The Texans are 3.5-point home favorites. Will Levis projects to be playing at less than 100% on an injured ankle and has been sacked six and seven times in two of his past three games.

The Bears defense ranks fifth in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8. They're playing good defense and are a bit affordable here at home against the uninspiring Taylor Heinicke.

Key Injuries

• Jaylen Waddle OUT - Upgrade Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and De'Von Achane
• Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer both OUT - Upgrade Gerald Everett, Quentin Johnston, Jalen Guyton, and Derius Davis
• Courtland Sutton OUT - Upgrade Jerry Jeudy (Questionable), Marvin Mims (Questionable), Brandon Johnson, and Lil'Jordan Humphrey
• Trevor Lawrence OUT - Upgrade Panthers D/ST
• Justin Herbert OUT - Upgrade Broncos D/ST
• Joe Burrow OUT - Upgrade Chiefs D/ST
• Marquise Brown OUT - Upgrade Trey McBride, Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore, and Michael Wilson
• Tank Dell OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III
• Zack Moss OUT - Upgrade Jonathan Taylor
• Jerick McKinnon OUT - Upgrade Isiah Pacheco (Questionable) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Questionable)
• Kadarius Toney OUT - Upgrade Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Richie James, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• Darnell Mooney OUT - Upgrade DJ Moore and Tyler Scott
• Josh Jacobs Doubtful - Upgrade Zamir White
• JaMarr Chase Questionable
• Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire both Questionable
• Alvin Kamara Questionable
• Ken Walker III Questionable
• DK Metcalf Questionable
• Cole Kmet Questionable
• Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims both Questionable
• Kyler Murray Questionable
• Jacoby Brissett Questionable
• Wan'Dale Robinson Questionable
• Brian Robinson OUT - Upgrade Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert Runback Option: Trey McBride
• Brock Purdy. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle Runback Options: Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel
• Patrick Mahomes II, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce
• C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins

Flag Plant Cash Play

• James Conner
• Chuba Hubbard
• Chris Olave
• Trey McBride
• Broncos D/ST

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Jalen Hurts
• Brock Purdy
• Christian McCaffrey
• D'Andre Swift
• A.J. Brown
• Rashee Rice
• George Kittle