Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 51.5
- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 46.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Bears at home vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 24.5
- Packers on road vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 20.5
- Buccaneers at home vs. Jaguars - Implied Team Total 22.5
- Seahawks on road vs. Titans - Implied Team Total 22
- Browns on road at Texans - Implied Team Total 20
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | vs. Jaguars | $6,000 |
| 2 | Nick Mullens | vs. Lions | $5,300 |
| 3 | Joe Flacco | at Texans | $5,500 |
Baker Mayfield just threw for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns last week and now gets to play at home against a struggling Jaguars defense that only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Mayfield leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks 13th in EPA/Play and ninth in Dropback EPA and he ranks tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7).
Nick Mullens is affordable at just $5,300, is surrounded by talent everywhere in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Ty Chandler, and gets to play at home in a good matchup against a Lions defense that ranks just 16th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Joe Flacco shockingly leads the NFL in passing yards per game (313) and pass touchdowns per game (2.3). He's affordable at just $5,500 and has a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ty Chandler | vs. Lions | $5,600 |
| 2 | Raheem Mostert | vs. Cowboys | $7,300 |
| 3 | Devin Singletary | vs. Browns | $5,500 |
| 4 | Breece Hall | vs. Commanders | $6,100 |
| 5 | Jerome Ford | at Texans | $5,400 |
Kevin O'Connell reported Ty Chandler will be the lead back this week after putting his talent and juice on display last week turning 26 touches into 157 total yards and 1 touchdown. And fellow running back Alexander Mattison is questionable after missing last week. Chandler is at home against an average Lions defense that ranks 16th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8. Chandler is a cash game lock.
Raheem Mostert ranks tied for first in touchdowns (20) and figures to be a large part of Miami's game plan a week after the Buffalo Bills ran for 266 total yards on this Cowboys defense. Dallas' defense only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.
Even with Dameon Pierce active, Devin Singletary still saw 31 opportunities last week and turned 30 touches into 170 total yards. Without C.J. Stroud for a second straight game, Singletary once again projects to be the focal point of Houston's offense. He's at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 27th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Things look very bleak for the New York Jets offense but Breece Hall is still extremely talented and gets to attack a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play since Week 8. Hall had seen 26 targets in the three-game stretch before last week. He's a dual-threat that can get there in multiple ways priced at just $6,100.
Jerome Ford projects to benefit from the absence of C.J. Stroud. The Texans are currently 2.5-point favorites but that will come down once Stroud is officially ruled out. Ford projects to work with a favorable rushing game script and ranks 24th in the entire NFL in opportunities per game (16.4).
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | at Dolphins | $9,200 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Vikings | $8,200 |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | at Titans | $4,500 |
| 4 | Jordan Addison | vs. Lions | $6,000 |
| 5 | Adam Thielen | vs. Packers | $5,900 |
| 6 | Jonathan Mingo | vs. Packers | $3,600 |
CeeDee Lamb has a tough matchup against a strong Dolphins defense but Lamb presents a tough matchup for Miami as well. And it is important to note Jalen Ramsey is not expected to shadow Lamb. Lamb ranks tied for third in targets per route run (27%), fifth in targets per game (10.1), third in receptions per game (7.4), and fifth in receiving yards per game (93.3). He's the alpha in by far the best fantasy game of the week with the highest Over/Under (51.5).
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks tied for third in targets per route run (27%), second in targets per game (10.2), fourth in receptions per game (7.2), and sixth in receiving yards per game (90.4). Brian Flores loves to blitz so look for St. Brown to be pelted with targets in this one.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba priced at just $4,500 is playable in all formats but his incredible game-winning touchdown in prime time last week will cause his ownership percentage to spike. Either way, Smith-Njigba benefits from Geno Smith's return this week and he has a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Jordan Addison posted a strong 6-111-2 last week and is in a good spot once again at home against a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Putting any faith at all in the Panthers offense is a tough sell but this looks like an extremely favorable spot at home against a Packers defense that just allowed 381 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to Baker Mayfield a week ago. The Packers defense ranks just 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Adam Thielen has faded but he has still seen seven targets in back-to-back games and Jonathan Mingo has seen target totals of 10, 9, and 5 over the past three weeks.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tucker Kraft | at Panthers | $3,700 |
| 2 | Evan Engram | at Buccaneers | $5,400 |
| 3 | Cole Kmet | vs. Cardinals | $4,400 |
Luke Musgrave remains out and Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks are all less than 100%. Tucker Kraft's offensive snap percentages over the past four weeks: 96%, 95%, 100%, and 95%. Kraft has caught four passes in back-to-back games and tied his career-high in targets last week with six. I preferred Kraft over Musgrave as a prospect coming out and that's looking okay so far. Here's what I wrote shortly after he was drafted by Green Bay:
Kraft can definitely play. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 254 pounds, he caught 65 passes for 773 yards and 6 touchdowns as a sophomore. Selected in the third round by a Green Bay franchise in dire need of an upgrade at the skill positions, Kraft is the preferred choice over Luke Musgrave due to his physicality, size, athleticism, and yards-after-catch ability.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are both out due to injury and Evan Engram already ranks second out of all tight ends in targets (106) and catches (88) and fifth in receiving yards (729). He has a favorable matchup here against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game (11) to the tight end position this season.
*Cole Kmet is questionable with a thigh issue but expected to play.* He's priced affordably at $4,400 and plays at home in an exploitable matchup against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | vs. Jaguars | $2,600 |
| 2 | Bears | vs. Cardinals | $2,800 |
Trevor Lawrence is still in concussion protocol. If he doesn't clear in time to play, the Buccaneers D/ST priced at just $2,600 would make a lot of sense in all formats.
The Bears are 4.5-point home favorites and their defense has been playing much better since Montez Sweat arrived via trade. The Bears defense ranks fifth in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8. Their $2,800 price tag looks mighty appetizing in all formats.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Fields | vs. Cardinals | $7,100 |
| 2 | Geno Smith | at Titans | $5,800 |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs. Cowboys | $7,800 |
Dual-threat Justin Fields gets to play at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. In an uninspiring quarterback main slate, Fields has a solid chance to finish as the QB1 overall.
Geno Smith returns to the lineup in a favorable spot against a Titans defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. This Seahawks passing offense is fun as they rank 11th in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, seventh in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF).
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense has been incredible this season. Miami ranks third in EPA/Play, third in Dropback EPA, fourth in PROE, and tenth in EDPF. Tagovailoa himself ranks third in passing yards per game (280.1) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). And the spot here is sneakily awesome at home against a Cowboys defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chuba Hubbard | vs. Packers | $5,700 |
| 2 | Rachaad White | vs. Jaguars | $7,400 |
| 3 | Aaron Jones | at Panthers | $6,400 |
| 4 | Ken Walker III | at Titans | $6,200 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | vs. Colts | $6,300 |
| 6 | Derrick Henry | vs. Seahawks | $6,800 |
In three games under interim head coach Chris Tabor, the Panthers offense has become extremely run-heavy. Chuba Hubbard's averages in those three games: 24.7 opportunities, 101 total yards, and 0.67 touchdowns. With the new coaching staff's approach, Hubbard is now one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football. He's at home this week against a Packers defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.
Rachaad White ranks seventh in opportunities per game (19.8) and 12th in total yards per game (93.1). He gets to play at home against a struggling Jaguars defense that only ranks 24th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Aaron Jones returned to action last week and saw 17 opportunities. That's a solid workload that should remain steady or even increase with teammate A.J. Dillon dealing with a broken thumb and listed as questionable. The matchup is there for the taking as Jones gets to attack a Panthers defense that only ranks 17th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
*Ken Walker III is questionable with a shoulder injury. Monitor his status before lock.* With the Seahawks fighting for a playoff spot, Ken Walker III was force-fed 22 touches last week. Walker is extremely talented and turned those chances into 112 total yards and 1 touchdown. Walker now gets to face a Titans defense that ranks just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Playing Bijan Robinson and putting any faith into Arthur Smith takes a real leap of faith right now but the Falcons are fighting for a playoff spot and Smith is coaching for his job so it would be shocking to see Robinson only receive ten opportunities again like last week. If Robinson receives his season average of 17.1 opportunities per game he could smash at home against a Colts defense that only ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention so Derrick Henry's projection is way more fragile than usual. But this is a very favorable situation worth leaning into in tournaments. Henry ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.9) and has a fantastic matchup at home against a struggling Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DJ Moore | vs. Cardinals | $6,900 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | vs. Lions | $8,100 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | vs. Jaguars | $7,600 |
| 4 | Chris Godwin | vs. Jaguars | $6,200 |
| 5 | Tyreek Hill | vs. Cowboys | $9,600 |
| 6 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Cowboys | $7,800 |
| 7 | Michael Pittman | at Falcons | $7,400 |
| 8 | DK Metcalf | at Titans | $6,700 |
| 9 | Tyler Lockett | at Titans | $5,600 |
DJ Moore has a strong 28% target share as he's been Justin Fields' alpha receiver all year long. He offers extreme upside in this spot at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Justin Jefferson returned in Week 14 and quickly got re-injured but he was able to play all of Week 15 in a game he caught 7 of 10 targets for 84 yards. Jefferson was able to shake off the rust last week and is in an incredible spot at home against a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. This Lions at Vikings game has the second-highest Over/Under (46.5) of the week.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain the alphas in Tampa Bay's receiving corps and they get to play at home against a struggling Jaguars defense that only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Evans has been incredible all year and Godwin is getting hot at the perfect time having just caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards last week.
Miami's offense ranks third in EPA/Play, third in Dropback EPA, fourth in PROE, and tenth in EDPF. The spot here is sneakily awesome at home against a Cowboys defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. This Cowboys at Dolphins has by far the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. Tyreek Hill projects to play and even at less than 100% is a strong tournament option in this favorable matchup and environment. And Jaylen Waddle could continue benefiting from Hill's injury after going 8-142-1 last week.
*Michael Pittman is questionable with a shoulder injury but he has fully cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play.* The masses have historically shied away from players with concussions and returning from them in tournaments and although Michael Pittman won't miss any time, the hit he took looked so awful, expect him to come in low owned. Pittman has been force-fed this year. He ranks tied for third in targets per route run (27%) and third in target share (31%). The matchup is average. Pittman's talent and volume can get home.
Geno Smith's return this week is great news for both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They're both in a favorable spot against a Titans defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Look for ownership to trend toward the more affordable Jaxon Smith-Njigba after catching the game-winning touchdown in prime time last week, making Metcalf and Lockett super fun tournament plays.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | at Bears | $5,700 |
| 2 | David Njoku | at Texans | $5,300 |
| 3 | T.J. Hockenson | vs. Lions | $5,800 |
Trey McBride leads all tight ends in targets per route run (27%). Here are his target totals over the past seven games: 14, 5, 9, 7, 9, 9, and 11. McBride is Kyler Murray's number-one target and is extremely talented. As a senior in college in 2021, McBride caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards. Look for him to keep dominating this week in a fantastic matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game (11.9) to the tight end position this season.
Joe Flacco has started the past three games and he's unlocked David Njoku over the past two contests. Here are Njoku's stats in those two: 6-91-2 and 10-104-1. Njoku's positive momentum projects to continue in this spot against a Texans defense that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game (11) to the tight end position this season.
This is a strong tournament spot for T.J. Hockenson. Justin Jefferson is back and Hockenson hasn't popped in a few weeks. He'll go a bit overlooked here but shouldn't in a solid spot at home against a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8 and that has allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game (10.7) to the tight end position this season.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns | at Texans | $3,400 |
| 2 | Jets | vs. Commanders | $3,100 |
C.J. Stroud is frustratingly out once again and the Browns have one of the best defenses in football. Cleveland ranks ninth in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.
The Jets as a whole are a bit of a mess right now but so is Sam Howell. Howell was benched last week and has thrown at least one interception in four straight games. He also has been sacked an NFL-high 59 times this season.
Key Injuries
- Brian Robinson OUT - Upgrade Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- Luke Musgrave OUT - Upgrade Tucker Kraft
- C.J. Stroud OUT - Upgrade Browns D/ST
- Tank Dell OUT - Upgrade Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III
- Christian Watson Doubtful and both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks Questionable - Upgrade Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed (Questionable), and Dontayvion Wicks (Questionable)
- Trevor Lawrence Questionable and still In The Concussion Protocol - Upgrade Buccaneers D/ST if Lawrence sits
- Michael Pittman Questionable with a shoulder injury but he has fully cleared concussion protocol and expected to play
- Ken Walker III Questionable
- Will Levis Questionable
- Cole Kmet Questionable
- A.J. Dillon Questionable
- Alexander Mattison Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Justin Fields and DJ Moore Runback Option: Trey McBride
- Nick Mullens, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson Runback Option: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle Runback Option: CeeDee Lamb
- Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Flag Plant Cash Play
- Ty Chandler
- Devin Singletary
- Tucker Kraft
- Jonathan Mingo
- Bears D/ST