An Intriguing Option at a Modest Cost

Few NFL running backs have experienced such a volatile start to their careers as Cam Akers. Selected in the second round of the 2020 draft, Akers was viewed as the potential successor to Todd Gurley. However, struggles with blocking and grasping Sean McVay's offense resulted in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. In 2021, Akers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, raising doubts about the trajectory of his career. Yet, he made a remarkably fast recovery from the tear. Expectations for Akers remained low in 2022 as the Rams failed to replicate their Super Bowl-winning form from 2021. The overall lack of success for the team overshadowed Akers' impressive late-season surge, making him an intriguing option on draft day.

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Rethinking the Achilles

Akers' Achilles injury initially led to bleak expectations for his future. Historically, there was little evidence of running backs successfully returning from such injuries. However, just as a torn ACL was once considered career-ending but is now manageable, advancements in surgical techniques and rehabilitation have changed the landscape. Akers demonstrated his resilience by performing as a workhorse during the final two months of the season. Moreover, other running backs like D'Onta Foreman have also shown positive outcomes after recovering from an Achilles tear.

The Profile Remains Compelling

At only 23 years old, Akers is younger than many realize, considering he is entering his fourth season. As a former second-round pick, he is playing for a modest salary in the final year of his rookie contract. Akers is healthy, in the early stages of his physical prime, and highly motivated to secure a second contract, whether with the Rams or another team.

From a Disastrous Start to a Powerhouse Finish

Akers' 2022 season can be divided into three distinct phases. Initially, he shared playing time with Darrell Henderson but struggled to make a significant impact. The media crafted a narrative suggesting that Akers had returned too quickly from his Achilles injury and lost his explosiveness. With an average of just 3.0 yards per carry in the first five weeks, Akers reportedly left the team, leading to speculation about a potential trade. After being inactive for two weeks, he reappeared on the roster without much explanation. Over the next month, Akers played sparingly, averaging only 8.3 touches per game and less than 30% of the snaps.

However, everything changed when Darrell Henderson suffered an injury in Week 11. Initially, Akers played second fiddle to rookie Kyren Williams in Week 12, with a 70/30 snap share. However, their roles reversed in Week 13, and Akers quickly showed his explosive potential.

Akers' Per-Game Production, 2022

Akers' 16-Game Pro Rata Pace, 2022

As you can see, he emerged as a fantasy football powerhouse in the latter part of the season, finishing as the fourth-ranked running back from Weeks 13 to 18.

Top Fantasy Running Backs, 2022 (Weeks 13-18, PPR Scoring)

Rams Roster is Gutted

His success last year only came after nearly quitting the team and with many of the team's top playmakers sidelined with injuries.

• QB Matthew Stafford was out for the year
• RB Darrell Henderson was out of the year
• WR Cooper Kupp was out for the year
• WR Allen Robinson was out for the year

It's fair to say Akers' success came in a situation where Los Angeles was playing out the string and running a run-heavy, ball-control offense just trying to get out of the season without any more long-term damage to the roster.

The Rams proceeded to gut the roster further this offseason, jettisoning any veteran with a large contract outside of Stafford, Kupp, and defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

• Starting guard David Edwards departed through free agency
• Wide receiver Allen Robinson was traded
• All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey was also traded
• Starting cornerbacks David Long and Troy Hill left in free agency
• Starting defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson and Greg Gaines departed in free agency
• Linebackers Justin Hollins and Bobby Wagner were not retained
• Edge rusher Leonard Floyd was released
• Starting safety Nick Scott left in free agency

Currently, the Rams have forty rookies on their 90-man roster, with 25 of them being undrafted free agents. With such a roster composition, it is highly unlikely for the Rams to compete for a playoff spot. So, what is their goal for this year? Are they trying to quickly develop young talent for another push? It can't be a complete rebuild; otherwise, players like Stafford, Kupp, and Donald would be better suited as trade assets for contending teams.

Despite the influx of rookies, the Rams have done little to threaten Akers' role. While Zach Evans shows potential, being a sixth-round pick suggests that we shouldn't expect him to have an immediate or significant impact, if at all. The team let Darrell Henderson go and did not bring in any veteran running backs to compete.

Although it may be tempting to discount Akers due to the team's expected struggles, it's important to remember that he produced well in similar circumstances late in the 2022 season. The key factor in a running back's fantasy value is the number of touches he receives, and as long as Akers remains healthy, he should receive a significant workload.

The ADP Reflects the Risk

No one is suggesting that Akers should be drafted as a top-10 asset, even though he performed at that level toward the end of last season. His current Average Draft Position (ADP) as RB22 takes into account the considerable risk involved. To put it in perspective, here are the average statistics for the 22nd-ranked fantasy running back over the past five seasons:

To justify his ADP, Akers needs to project as a player who can achieve 1,000 yards from scrimmage and score 8 touchdowns. Last year, once he regained the starting role, he was on pace for 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns. In other words, you would be paying for 63% of the production he provided in the latter part of last year.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There are plenty of ways drafting Cam Akers won't bear fruit. If the Rams are as bad as most expect, buying into any piece of the offense is problematic, but particularly so for a tailback who hasn't been used as a receiver much. But fantasy football is all about value arbitrage, and Akers' draft-day cost more than accounts for all of his downside, without giving fair weight to the upside. While his return to prominence in 2022 was circuitous, we can't deny how well he played over the final two months of the season. With the front office gutting the roster while adding nothing to credibly threaten Akers' role, he need only stay healthy to push for 250+ touches. As long as the Rams offensive line is league average and Matthew Stafford is under center, Akers should thrive. He only needs to be 60% of the player he was down the stretch to justify his draft position, yet we know he's capable of much more. Invest in a low-end RB2 option, but brace yourself for optionality that could push him into fringe RB1 territory.