In the realm of fantasy football, there are unforgettable moments that leave a lasting impression on fans and analysts. One such memory is Christian McCaffrey's incredible performance in 2019, where he averaged a staggering 29.45 PPR points. He followed it up with an impressive 30.13 points per game in 2020, solidifying his legacy as one of the all-time fantasy points compilers. These seasons placed him among the top six per-game fantasy seasons by running backs in NFL history, alongside greats like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

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However, the football gods had a different plan for McCaffrey in 2021. He faced a challenging campaign filled with injuries and played on an anemic offense, testing his resilience. It was the only time between 2019 and 2022 that McCaffrey failed to average over 20 points per game. Yet, despite these setbacks, fantasy markets remained unwavering in their faith. McCaffrey had established himself as a premier back, and those who believed in him were rewarded with another spectacular performance in 2022. A blockbuster trade to the San Francisco 49ers reignited the fervor surrounding his dominance and reminded us of his game-breaking abilities.

However, it is important to recognize that McCaffrey has transitioned from a young and dominant record-setting running back to an oft-injured player on the wrong side of the age curve. Despite this, he continues to be drafted unanimously as the RB1 in all formats. This raises some important questions: Can a 27-year-old McCaffrey live up to the lofty expectations and price tag? Does he still possess an elite ceiling? And what risks are associated with his floor?

Christian McCaffrey's Historical Comps

When examining Christian McCaffrey's extraordinary performances in the past, it becomes apparent that his ceiling reaches unprecedented heights. To find comparable seasons, we have to delve deep into NFL history. Here are the top 10 per-game fantasy seasons by running backs of all time, including two by McCaffrey, although one was achieved over a limited number of games.

Apart from McCaffrey's two outstanding seasons and LaDainian Tomlinson's 2003 campaign, it's striking to see that all the other running backs on the list were 27 years old or older. However, it's important to consider that these seasons date back at least 16 years, and the NFL landscape has evolved significantly since then. The rise of committee backfields and the emphasis on younger, more affordable running backs due to changes in data and contract trends have reshaped how teams approach the position.

Re-Energized In A New Setting

In McCaffrey's case, his trade to the 49ers in the middle of last season injected new life into his fantasy value. While he was still a valuable asset in Carolina, the lack of offensive weapons allowed opposing defenses to focus on containing him. However, the move to San Francisco provided a revitalized situation with innovative play-calling and a talented supporting cast, enabling McCaffrey to reclaim his throne as the top fantasy football RB1.

Now, let's examine McCaffrey's performance splits with both teams, excluding Week 7, where he played only 29% of snaps:

Surprisingly, McCaffrey's volume didn't change significantly after joining San Francisco. When considering the value of targets compared to carries, one could argue that he actually had fewer opportunities in his new home. However, the improved ecosystem and supporting cast allowed him to be much more efficient with his touches, resulting in 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.

Can Christian McCaffrey maintain that efficiency?

It's difficult to envision him sustaining a pace of more than one touchdown per game. However, considering that he averaged 23 points per game for the fourth time in his career, let's examine other running backs who achieved that mark in the last decade:

This table looks very different than the initial table we discussed. Of the 14 players to eclipse 23 points per game over an entire season in the last decade, only two did it beyond age 26, and none beyond age 27. This is much more indicative of the modern NFL and age curve we're familiar with. 27-year-old Jamaal Charles and Derrick Henry required 19 touchdowns and 2,000 yards to log 23 points per game.

Given the usage McCaffrey saw last year, he would need to maintain his scoring efficiency to hit that 23-point-per-game bar again. That's a tough ask for any running back, especially one aged 27. In the last decade, only 14 running backs have been able to score at a rate of 1.1 touchdowns per game. Of those 14, only three did it beyond age 26: the aforementioned Jamaal Charles at 27, Austin Ekeler at 27, and LeGarrette Blount at 30.

This set up an interesting discussion regarding possible touchdown regression. It's likely, but it probably doesn't matter all that much, either.

Elite usage makes for an elite floor

Even with projected scoring regression, McCaffrey's usage gives him an extremely safe floor. Extrapolating his usage over a full 16-game season (remember, we're pulling historical comps) gives us a pretty short list of elite fantasy producers. Only nine running backs have hit the 240-carry and 100-target usage thresholds in the last ten years.

Outside of Leonard Fournette's exceptional 2019 season, every player who reached the 240-carry and 100-target thresholds provided at least 20 PPR points per game. In the past year, only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler surpassed this mark. Even Fournette's 2019 season, with 17.29 points per game, would have secured an RB6 finish in the previous year. McCaffrey's usage in San Francisco last season, if extrapolated over a full 17-game season, equates to 257 carries and 107 targets, offering a remarkably safe floor.

Is his age catching up to him?

While many running backs begin to decline as they get older, McCaffrey has shown no signs of slowing down. After slight dips in yards per carry in 2020 and 2021, he rebounded to prime numbers in 2022 with 4.7 yards per carry. His 8.9 yards per reception came close to his career-high set the previous year. Moreover, his PFF grading reached new heights in offensive and rushing grades, falling just 0.4 points shy of his career-high passing grade from 2021. McCaffrey defied expectations as a 23-year-old workhorse, and he continues to do so at the peak of the age curve, aging like fine wine.

Final Thoughts

In all honesty, it's difficult to argue for any running back other than McCaffrey to be drafted as this year's RB1. He thrives in a great offense that provides him ample space to excel. His coaching staff has unwavering trust and respect in him. His efficiency remains undiminished. With his significant usage, he possesses an incredibly high floor, while his play-making ability offers immense upside.

Of course, injury concerns exist for every running back, but McCaffrey is coming off a healthy 17-game season and is part of a team with Super Bowl aspirations. He is re-energized and playing in the best offense of his career. Barring any injuries, McCaffrey's usage alone sets him up for another top-five fantasy finish. Considering his new team and his sustained efficiency, a 30-point-per-game finish remains within the realm of possibility. It's unnecessary to remind you that Christian McCaffrey is an outstanding football player, but consider this your annual reminder not to overthink your draft selection by passing up on him in favor of another running back.

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