Assessing the NFL's New Play-callers

The NFL Coaching Carousel is constantly spinning

It was a relatively muted year for head coaching changes, as only five teams opted for new hires. But the turnover at the coordinator level was in-line with recent history. Sixteen teams – 50% of the league – are ushering in new offensive coordinators, while twelve teams have new defensive coordinators, assuming Buffalo doesn’t name a formal replacement for Leslie Frazier.

Fantasy football managers know full well the importance of getting coaching hires right. A year ago, the industry was elated at the prospect of Russell Wilson being unlocked as a passer in Denver. But the head coach and play-caller Nathaniel Hackett didn’t last the season, as the Broncos finished dead last in points scored. Meanwhile, the Lions promoted Ben Johnson – a little-known position coach – as Anthony Lynn’s replacement. Most assumed it would be another lost year of uninspired offensive output. But Johnson took the Lions from a 25th-ranked offense in 2021 (under Lynn’s watch) to the No. 5 offense in 2022.
This season, fourteen teams will have new offensive play-callers. Each situation brings its own degree of risk and opportunity. Fantasy managers need to understand where the changes are most likely to positively and negatively impact player performance.

Evaluating coaches is difficult, but we can try to handicap the fantasy impact by focusing on three lenses:

• What is their play-calling experience?
• How have they performed in the past?
• Are they implementing a new system?

The Yin and Yang of Expectations: Sean Payton vs. Mike McCarthy

Ask 100 NFL fans whether they prefer Sean Payton or Mike McCarthy, and Payton will run away with the poll. Yet, the veteran head coaches have had remarkably similar careers.

But perception is also about expectations. In his first season in Denver, Sean Payton takes over the league’s worst offense. He could field a league-average unit, a massive improvement over the 2022 Broncos. Whereas Mike McCarthy is taking over play-calling duties in Dallas for a team that had the No. 4-ranked offense last season. McCarthy has nowhere to go but down, yet he seems to think he can get Dallas over the hump and into a Super Bowl.

Mike McCarthy – Dallas Cowboys

• New system? NO
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 18 seasons
• Past performance? Mixed, trending down in the last few years in Green Bay

The Situation: The Cowboys' offense finished 17th in McCarthy’s first year, but Dak Prescott only played five games. The unit bounced back in 2021 (1st) and 2022 (4th), with Kellen Moore calling plays. But McCarthy couldn’t stomach someone else calling plays and jettisoned Moore, despite his incredible success. McCarthy has much at stake, as anything less than elite production will be considered a falloff. While McCarthy’s career as a play-caller is full of highlights, the Packers' offense fell off in his final four seasons, partly because McCarthy was unwilling to evolve. Has he learned his lesson? Can he bring more creativity to tempo and formation than we saw in Green Bay, a by-the-books West Coast offense?

The Verdict: Regression is likely. McCarthy scared everyone with his Combine comments, and it’s hard to imagine he can match Moore’s elite success. But Prescott is talented and experienced, the key offensive pieces return, and they’ve added Brandin Cooks. Dallas’ offense won’t match the 2021-2022 heights, but it should remain a Top-10 fixture, albeit with a heavier focus on the ground game. Will that be enough to save McCarthy’s job?

Sean Payton – Denver Broncos

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 18 seasons
• Past performance? Hall of Fame worthy, but almost entirely with Drew Brees

The Situation: Denver was a preseason darling 12 months ago, but Nathaniel Hackett’s tenure was historically bad. He ceded play-calling duties months into the season and was fired at the season’s end. The Broncos grabbed the brass ring in Sean Payton, who was far and away the most coveted head coaching candidate league-wide. Payton’s resume is unquestioned, but most of his success came with Drew Brees at the helm. New Orleans finished 19th in 2021 with Jameis Winston, by comparison. Can Payton resurrect Russell Wilson’s career?

The Verdict: Improvement is assured, but don’t expect a return to elite levels in 2023. Payton is taking over the league’s worst (32nd) offense; there’s nowhere to go but up. But it will take time to implement his playbook. One thing to consider, the Saints only Super Bowl season coincided with one of the few times they ran the ball nearly 50% of the time. Could that be the answer for Denver in 2023? Wilson was at his best in Seattle when he didn’t have to throw 600 times, so there’s precedent.

Once More, With Feeling: Bill O’Brien and Todd Monken

Two of college football’s most successful play-callers – Bill O’Brien and Todd Monken – are returning to the NFL this year. O’Brien heads back to New England, where he first made a name for himself, while Monken joins a Ravens team that may or may not have Lamar Jackson to build around. Will O’Brien and Monken’s success at SEC powerhouses translate to the NFL, where they won’t have the same colossal talent advantages?

Bill O’Brien – New England Patriots

• New system? NO
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, five seasons
• Past performance? Mixed, but far better than the incumbents

The Situation: Bill Belichick may have finally overestimated his abilities last year by lazily handing the keys to the offense over to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, two long-time lieutenants with minimal experience coaching the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots were 17th in points scored and were below average in passing (20th) and rushing (24th). His solution? Re-hire Bill O’Brien, who last coached for the Patriots in 2011. O’Brien left New England for Penn State and then returned to the NFL as the head man in Houston for six years before most recently taking over as the OC at Alabama. The Crimson Tide fielded the No. 6 (2021) and No. 4 (2022) offenses nationally under O’Brien, but it’s worth noting that was a slight step back from the Steve Sarkisian years. And no one had more talent than Alabama. But O’Brien’s understanding of offensive principles, including RPOs and spread formations, should play well in his return to the NFL, and quarterback Mac Jones comes from the same collegiate pedigree.

The Verdict: We’ll see more improvement than you expect. We underestimate the value of continuity, and although the Patriots' offense scared no one in 2022, it was league-average with arguably the most inept offensive coaching staff in Belichick’s history. O’Brien isn’t changing the system and has a history with Belichick and the other coaches. He also knows Mac Jones’ tendencies well. The Patriots' personnel isn’t good enough to step back into the elite tier, but don’t be shocked if O’Brien’s offense isn’t balanced (run-heavy), capable of big plays, and has the Patriots back toward the Top 10 at season’s end.

Todd Monken – Baltimore Ravens

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, but only one season
• Past performance? Uninspiring overall, but elite recently

The Situation: The Ravens are at a crossroads. John Harbaugh enters his 16th season at the helm with more questions than answers. It’s been more than a decade since the Super Bowl victory, and the team has only won two playoff games since. The Ravens parted ways with Greg Roman after four seasons of diminishing returns. In 2019, Roman burst onto the scene as Baltimore fielded the No. 1 offense, and Lamar Jackson was League MVP. But the offense fell in each subsequent season (7th, 17th, and 19th), and Jackson’s play (and health) have never matched that first year together. Hiring Todd Monken is a fascinating move. This is his third stint as an NFL offensive coordinator (Tampa Bay 2016-2018, Cleveland 2019), but he only called plays for one of those seasons. His star was fading when he left the NFL for the University of Georgia. To his credit, he vaulted the Bulldogs' offense from moribund (38th in 2022) to elite (9th and 5th in 2021 and 2022, respectively), and Georgia won back-to-back national championships because the offense was finally able to keep pace with the always-elite defense under head coach Kirby Smart. So now Monken returns to the pros at 57 with something to prove.

The Verdict: Encouraging if Lamar Jackson remains. At the risk of hedging our bets, Monken’s success hinges on the quarterback situation. Monken was an aggressive, creative play-caller at Georgia. He played with tempo, leveraged no-huddle at times, and created space for his best athletes. And he built elite passing offenses around speedy vertical threats and all-purpose tight ends. That’s a blueprint for winning with the Ravens personnel. But if Jackson isn’t re-signed, all bets are off because the Ravens would likely go with a stopgap measure in 2023, targeting their new long-term answer in 2024.

Shine Bright Like a Diamond: Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore

If there’s a future Hall of Fame coach in his new crop of play-callers, it’s likely one of these two young guns. Both have four seasons as NFL play-callers and have shown adaptability and resilience, albeit in different ways.

Shane Steichen – Indianapolis Colts

• New system? YES, but similar roots
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, four seasons
• Past performance? Excellent and adaptable

The Situation: Shane Steichen gets his first head-coaching gig at 37 years old after two years as Nick Sirianni’s offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. Steichen eerily mirrors Frank Reich, the man he replaces. Both were OCs for the Chargers and Eagles before getting the Colts' head job. Both have similar offensive schematic roots. And both built their reputations on quarterback development. What’s exciting about Steichen is he’s been instrumental in developing Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts – two of the league’s best young signal callers. Steichen steps into a Colts offense that bottomed last year (30th in points), partly because of poor quarterback play and an injury to the offensive centerpiece (Jonathan Taylor). Steichen will call plays as head coach and most likely build the offense around a rookie quarterback.

The Verdict: Improvement is assured, but the Colts are a multi-year turnaround. The offense ranked ninth in 2021, with Carson Wentz under center, thanks to Taylor’s powerhouse running. Presuming Taylor is 100% after last year’s injury, Steichen immediately has the edge over Reich. The big question is who quarterbacks the team, and do they get the pick right? Steichen’s ability to develop young quarterbacks is undeniable. Many coaches preach adaptability but fail to demonstrate it; Steichen took an Eagles offense in 2021 that lacked playmakers and morphed it into the most run-heavy offense, leading to a surprise playoff berth. And then, in 2022, with a fully-stocked cupboard, he unleashed the league’s No. 3 scoring offense that was equally adept at throwing 45 times or running it 40 times, whatever it took to win.

Kellen Moore – Los Angeles Chargers

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, four seasons
• Past performance? Elite

The Situation: Mike McCarthy inherited Kellen Moore when he took over the Cowboys, and we now know the relationship was never ideal. The Cowboys and Moore “mutually” parted ways, and it took Moore all of 30 seconds to land a coveted role as the Chargers' play-caller. Moore inherits an offense that couldn’t run the ball (30th in rushing yards), which hurt Justin Herbert’s efficiency (12th in touchdown passes despite being 2nd in pass attempts). Moore is only 34 years old, yet has already called plays for four seasons. In those four years, the Cowboys have ranked 6th, 17th, 1st, and 4th in points scored. The only non-elite year came with Dak Prescott missing 11 games. It’s equally impressive that Moore fielded top-tier offenses under two different offensive-minded head coaches. Jason Garrett is an Air Coryell disciple, while Mike McCarthy is a West Coast guy.

The Verdict: The sky’s the limit. The perception is Joe Lombardi held the Chargers back; they were 13th in points scored. That sets a high bar for Moore, but he’s never fielded a bad offense when his quarterback was healthy. Suppose you think Justin Herbert is better than Dak Prescott. In that case, you have to be excited about Moore’s ability to increase his productivity by re-establishing the running game while putting the receiving corps in a better position to make plays in space. The only problem with Moore’s hiring is he’s one or two strong seasons away from a head-coaching job. Head coach Brandon Staley must ensure he has someone capable of grabbing the baton.

Familiar Tunes, New Surroundings: Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett

Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett may not have much in common. Reich was a quarterback turned coach, while Hackett was a coach’s kid turned coach. Reich has been an NFL head coach since 2018 (Colts) and is taking over as head coach in Carolina. Hackett got his first head-coaching gig last year in Denver and was a dead man walking three months into his tenure. He’s returned to the coordinator ranks, taking over for the Jets. Reich is 61 years old. Chances are, the Panthers will be his final NFL stop. Hackett is 43 years old and presumably has many stops ahead. So why are we pairing them up? Because both have a ton of NFL experience (17 and 14 years, respectively) and have called plays for multiple teams. They’re re-treads in the kindest sense of the word.

Frank Reich – Carolina Panthers

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, seven seasons
• Past performance? Mixed, three top-10 seasons, two bottom-10 seasons

The Situation: Reich was fired midway through the 2022 season but enjoyed a measure of success in his Colts tenure. He never won a division title and only made the playoffs twice in five seasons, but he also had the wildest quarterback carousel in modern league history. Fresh of the Eagles' Super Bowl victory, he took the Colts job because of Andrew Luck, who then shocked the world by retiring after Reich’s first season. He had a new starter in each season: Luck (2018), Jacoby Brissett (2019), Philip Rivers (2020), Carson Wentz (2021), and Matt Ryan (2022). Can we effectively judge Reich’s play-calling, given the quarterback volatility? In any event, he quickly landed in Carolina and will get another chance to build an offense around a young passer, as the Panthers acquired the 1st overall pick to use on a franchise quarterback.

The Verdict: We’ll see moderate improvement, building a winning foundation. Reich finally gets to shop for the groceries, and his tenure in Carolina is inextricably linked to who they draft first overall. The Panthers spent aggressively in free agency to bolster the supporting cast, and Reich will bring an organizational rigor and likeability that sets a high floor. Whether he’s the right person to get the Panthers into deep playoff contention is another question to be answered in 2024 and beyond.

Nathaniel Hackett – New York Jets

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, six seasons
• Past performance? Alarming, outside of one season in Jacksonville

The Situation: Hackett’s hiring in New York would be a head-scratcher, save for one thing – Aaron Rodgers loves him. In six seasons as a play-caller for Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Denver, the results were terrible outside of the year Jacksonville went to the AFC Championship game with Blake Bortles playing out of his mind. But Hackett landed as the OC in Green Bay, where he didn’t call plays (Matt LaFleur does) but obviously bonded with Rodgers. That matters a lot, as Rodgers intends on playing in New York. Judging Hackett’s play-calling with Rodgers there will be hard, much like it was to properly assess Adam Gase while Peyton Manning was running the show.

The Verdict: Aaron Rodgers is the real OC. The Jets are jam-packed with talent, including offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson and young star tailback Breece Hall. If Rodgers is healthy, the offense should look much like what we saw in Green Bay. If Rodgers retires or gets hurt, don’t expect the Jets to be any better than they were in 2022, with Mike LaFleur calling the shots.

The Odd Ducks: Eric Bieniemy and Tim Kelly

These guys are the hardest play-callers to categorize because they don’t fit a typical profile. Bieniemy has a Hall of Fame resume, of sorts, but has been passed over time and again for head coaching jobs while other Chiefs assistants (who worked under him) have gotten opportunities. So he’s leaving the Chiefs for the Commanders, hoping that success outside of Andy Reid’s shadow will finally unlock the head-coaching padlock. Kelly, meanwhile, is only 36 years old and was promoted from within the Titans, but most NFL fans probably don’t realize he has prior experience as a play-caller with the Texans.

Eric Bieniemy – Washington Commanders

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? To be determined

The Situation: Eric Bieniemy has 15 years of NFL coaching experience. He’s been the Chiefs' offensive coordinator for five seasons. In those five seasons, the Chiefs have finished 1st, 5th, 6th, 4th, and 1st in points scored. And they’ve won two Super Bowls. If that’s not an A+ resume, what is? Unfortunately, that success hasn’t led to head coaching opportunities, and Bieniemy has concluded it’s because he doesn’t call the plays in KC. Andy Reid’s success and shadow loom too large. To Bieniemy’s credit, he's betting on himself and leaving Reid and Patrick Mahomes II for Ron Rivera and…Sam Howell? Washington is in flux, with a potential ownership change and more questions than answers up and down the roster.

The Verdict: We’re rooting for success but preparing for failure. Nick Sirianni didn’t call plays in Indianapolis before getting the Eagles' head job. Andy Reid didn’t call plays in Green Bay before getting the Eagles job, either. There is precedent, but Bieniemy felt the clock was ticking. Washington will have a combination of Howell and Jacoby Brissett under center; there’s a chasm between what they can do in an offense versus Mahomes. The Commanders were 24th in points scored last year and were inefficient (28th in yards per rush, 23rd in yards per pass attempt), so there’s low-hanging fruit. Bieniemy may not have called plays in Kansas City, but he sat at the side of the NFL’s best offensive mind and had a significant hand in developing the game plans. The sad part is that Bieniemy could be making the right decision for his career but end up torpedoing his head-coaching chances because of the roster on which he’s hung his reputation.

Tim Kelly – Tennessee Titans

• New system? NO
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, two seasons
• Past performance? Unimpressive, with caveats

The Situation: You're not alone if you didn’t realize this is Tim Kelly’s second stint as an NFL offensive coordinator. Kelly is only 36 and was promoted to OC after one season as the Titans' passing game coordinator. He spent eight seasons with the Texans, moving up the ranks from quality control coach to offensive coordinator, a role he held from 2019 through 2021. He called plays the final two seasons, leading the Texans to 18th and 30th-place finishes. Deshaun Watson’s absence marred 2021, but that doesn’t explain their below-average finish with Watson in 2020. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel tabbed Kelly to fix an ailing offense that went from 4th in 2020 under Arthur Smith to 15th and 28th in 2021 and 2022, respectively, under Todd Downing. Can Kelly recapture the unstoppable run game that propelled the Titans into AFC contention under Smith? Most of the same pieces are in place, but isn’t that part of the problem?

The Verdict: Good luck. Kelly is young, energetic, and more experienced than many other hires this cycle. Vrabel is a fan of consistency, which is why he has promoted from within three straight times (Arthur Smith was tight ends coach, Downing was tight ends coach, and Kelly was passing game coordinator). Veterans Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry should benefit from the continuity, but they’re also past their primes. Have the Titans done enough with the roster to reinvigorate things? And is Kelly more Arthur Smith or more Todd Downing? We don’t know, but don’t bet on a Tennessee resurgence.

The New Kids on the Block: Brian Johnson, Bobby Slowik, Dave Canales, and Drew Petzing

We’ll combine these last four guys because they’re the biggest unknowns. All four are undertaking NFL play-calling duties for the first time in 2023. History tells us their seasons will be mixed, with some rocketing to prominence and possible head-coaching interviews, while others are quickly and quietly replaced. And remember, plenty of coaches struggle in their first stint as a play-caller but find success in future stops.

Brian Johnson – Philadelphia Eagles

• New system? NO
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: The Eagles just lost the Super Bowl but fielded a dynamic, multi-dimensional offense (No. 3 in points) under Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen’s stewardship. Steichen took the Colts' head-coaching role, and Sirianni quickly promoted QBs coach Brian Johnson. Johnson inherits an elite offense with most of its key pieces returning, but also has mountainous expectations.

The Verdict: Steady as she goes, or else. Johnson is well-regarded in league circles and already considered a future head coach, so the rubber meets the road this year. No play-caller steps into a better situation, so there are no excuses. Unlike other newcomers, Johnson has an offensive-minded head coach who plays a considerable role in scouting, strategy, and game-planning. Johnson won’t have to do it all himself. And the players all know the system and playbook. Just don’t screw up.

Bobby Slowik – Houston Texans

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: The Texans are undergoing a complete rebuild again. But there’s legitimate hope this time because new head coach DeMeco Ryans is widely respected in league circles, and the team is positioned to draft a new franchise quarterback with the No. 2 pick in April’s draft. Slowik is only 35 but has nine years of NFL experience, including the last two as a passing game coach under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Slowik is the latest in a long line of Shanahan assistants tagged for bigger things, but he’ll be tasked with running the offense and calling plays without an offensive-minded mentor.

The Verdict: A complete crapshoot. The NFL loves plucking young assistants away from top head coaches, but the results are mixed. Slowik is a second-generation NFL coach; he grew up in the game. And Ryans prioritized his hire, so there’s hope for success. But it remains to be seen until we see who Houston drafts and whether Slowik can put his own unique spin on one of the league’s most copied playbooks.

Dave Canales – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: When Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers, everyone knew it was a Faustian bargain; enjoy immediate success and Super Bowl contention in exchange for a hard reset down the road. That reset is officially here as Brady has retired (again), and the team is undergoing a roster overhaul on both sides of the ball. Byron Leftwich was let go in favor of Dave Canales, who helped turn Geno Smith from an aging journeyman to one of the league’s most efficient passers. The 41-year-old spent 13 seasons in Seattle and gets his first chance at play-calling with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center.

The Verdict: Better luck next year? All kidding aside, the Seahawks are a well-run franchise, and learning at the side of Pete Carroll for a decade is an asset. But Canales wasn’t the play-caller in Seattle, and Smith’s turnaround may have been an anomaly; it was only one season. Even talented chefs have difficulty making great dishes with bad ingredients, so Canales may lay a foundation this year to unleash the potential playbook with a high-end franchise quarterback in 2024.

Drew Petzing – Arizona Cardinals

• New system? YES
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: The Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray marriage soured, and the organization had no choice but to side with Murray, thanks to the massive amount of guaranteed money owed. Ownership hired Jonathan Gannon as head coach, and Gannon – a defensive coordinator – had to get his offensive choice right. He chose Petzing, a 36-year-old with ten years of NFL experience. Petzing has worked under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and Cleveland, coaching receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks. He steps into an offense with quite a few marquee names and expectations but hasn’t finished in the Top 10 in any of Murray’s four seasons.

The Verdict: Anything’s possible, but questions abound. New head coaches often succeed or fail based on the caliber of staff they can assemble. When both Gannon and Shane Steichen landed head jobs in the same cycle, it was a foregone conclusion they would need to look outside their incumbent (Eagles) organization for assistants. Gannon’s choice of Petzing is intriguing but leaves many questions. It’s great that he’s coached all three key position groups, but he’s never called plays and doesn’t have an offensive head coach to help build the foundation. Deshaun Watson had a disastrous first season in Cleveland under Petzing’s watch. Kyler Murray has been criticized (fairly or not) for lack of preparation and is coming off a torn ACL. That doesn’t feel like a recipe for success.