Are These Injured Players Safe to Draft?

You see the player dropping.

Why is he dropping?

Oh, there is that little red cross icon next to his name. He's injured.

Well, how bad is it?

Hamstring strain. That's it? Surely, he should not be out that long. A hamstring strain is a pretty common thing.

Why does no one else want him?

Shoot, I'm on the clock. Who set up 30 seconds per pick!?

Why can't I find anything on this injury?

Is this too soon to take him? Too late?

Tick tock…

10 seconds left! Ahhh! What do I do…?

We've all been there. On the clock, staring down the barrel of a potential value or roster burner due to an injury. With the pressure of a depleting clock, what should you do? Luckily, you've stumbled upon this article. Below are some of my favorite average draft position (ADP) values and players I to avoid based on injury. Ultimately, it's your fantasy team. The decision is yours, but at least you will be more informed once the moment arrives.

Players Who Are Values

RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 54, RB19

We will save the discussion of how running backs perform the first year after ACL reconstruction (ACLR) for later in this article, but that rumor you've probably heard about performance returning to normal the second year after surgery is true. The table below shows RB production averages two years post-ACLR compared to their pre-injury level.

RB Production Pre-ACLR vs. 2 Years Post-ACLR (2001-2022)

Although there are still some signs of decline, it is minimal, suggesting that performance returns to pre-injury levels. The big one you should care about is fantasy points per game. A 1.4% is negligible, suggesting that J.K. Dobbins should return to his rookie form where he finished the season as RB12 from Week 11 onward.

It was a questionable start to the preseason for Dobbins. He started on the Physical Unable to Perform (PUP) list, but it was never 100% clear if that was due to injury or a contract dispute. Nevertheless, Dobbins is back and could easily outperform his ADP in what figures to be a high-scoring Baltimore offense with little competition for RB touches.

Summary: RBs do better in the second year after ACL surgery. Dobbins has no competition for backfield touches and can easily outscore his low-end RB2 ADP.

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 172, QB24

Monday, word broke via Adam Schefter that Arizona was not planning on activating Kyler Murray before Week 1, meaning the QB would miss the first four games of the season. Drafting a player who will miss four games might seem odd to some, but starting the season on the PUP is already baked into Kyler Murray's ADP. With that in mind, make sure you know your league settings, as deep benches or multiple IR spots are ideal if you are drafting Murray. However, if you are patient, adding him to your team either at the draft or mid-season could pay off.

Nearly 30% of Murray's fantasy production came from rushing plays, and although everyone is projecting the Arizona QB to run less, few have quantified it. Using a linear progression mode, I created weighted for QBs coming off a major lower-body injury; Murray is currently projected for 270 yards on 64 rush attempts (4.22 yards per carry). Both would be career lows. Even with this projection, Murray is slated to outperform his QB24 and closer to QB15-17 when he returns. The disrespect has gone too far, making him a value late in drafts.

Summary: Murray should rush less than he has in years past but, even with a significant dip, still outscore his QB24 ADP, even with missing the first four games of 2023.

Players Who Are Fades

(updated 8.31.23)

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 7, WR4

Originally in the "Players Who Are Values" section, Cooper Kupp looked like he was primed to be ready for Week 1 after injuring his hamstring at the start of August. Today (8.31.23), word broke that Kupp re-aggravated his hamstring injury and would be considered "day-to-day."

Sean McVay said WR Cooper Kupp suffered a setback with his hamstring and now is day to day.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 31, 2023

Previous injuries are always the biggest risk factor for future injuries, and although it is really hard to determine the extent of Kupp's re-injured hamstring, here's what the data shows.

Wide receivers, on average, have 13% of re-injuring the same hamstring in-season. That percentage doubles for WRs over the age of 28. Kupp is 30 years old. Of the NFL WRs who were over 28 and did sustain a re-injury, the average time missed was 7 weeks. From when Kupp injured his hamstring to when he returned to practice, it was ~3 weeks, meaning the data points to him missing another 3-4 weeks. Week 1 seems unlikely at this point. Taking all of this into consideration, personally, he is no longer a top-5 pick for me. Because Kupp offers massive upside, I'd take a swing in the early/mid second but understand there is an inherent risk here.

Summary: Week 1 seems like a long shot, given that Kupp re-injured his hamstring. Because there is a higher risk of this hamstring injury lingering all season long and with the chance he misses the start of the season, he should be moved behind WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ceedee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown.

RB Breece Hall, New York Jets

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 36, RB14

I mentioned it above, but the data suggests that RBs struggle their first year back after ACLR. Juxtaposed to their pre-injury levels, here is how running backs perform the next season:

RB Production Pre-ACLR vs. 1 Year Post-ACLR (2001-2022)

You might hear that "freak athletes" tend to do better after tearing their ACL, and although that helps those numbers, I've examined RBs who did the best either had a massive workload or a healthy target share. The latter seemed more plausible, considering that, with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones averaged at least a 13% target share in the last three years. However, both Hall's workload and target share likely took a massive hit with the signing of Dalvin Cook. For that reason, Hall's ceiling is capped as he is currently being selected as the 14th RB in most fantasy drafts.

Summary: RBs generally don't do well the first year back after ACL surgery. Adding Dalvin Cook caps Hall's ceiling.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 50, WR23

This is the unfortunate part of the preseason, as injuries shift ADPs and can change values in an instant. Last week, we witnessed this shift with the injury of Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos' wideout was primed for a breakout season, but it would appear that the start of his takeoff has been delayed due to a hamstring injury.

Referring to the Cooper Kupp blurb above, WRs miss on average 2.5 weeks, but context is everything, as not all injuries are created equally. Jeudy had trouble walking after the injury and even needed help to get on the cart that drove him off the field. Reading between the tea leaves, this injury sounds like the more serious variety. This theory was further supported by Ian Rapoport's report that Jeudy is expected to miss "several weeks with a moderate hamstring injury."

Twenty percent of WRs from 2017-2022 missed 5+ weeks with a hamstring strain, indicating that when more serious hamstring injuries strike, the timeline for return is extended. It's still very possible that Jeudy delivers on his early projections, but this data suggests it will take time - not until Week 4+. I prefer to get a fast start in my fantasy leagues and want my WR1 or WR2 available from the jump. I would much prefer players such as DJ Moore, Christian Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brandon Aiyuk, who all go in a similar range and are slated to start Week 1.

Summary: Jeudy figures to get off to a slow start as he opens the season nursing a hamstring strain. I prefer having my best fantasy players available from the clip so I can win early and start a run to the fantasy playoffs.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Footballguys Aggregate ADP: Pick 72, RB26

We already laid out the example of why to fade RBs following ACLR when breaking down Breece Hall's 2023 outlook. Javonte Williams is going three rounds later, and although his ADP is more palatable, I am still very nervous about his production.

Williams has looked good in the preseason; he has checked the appropriate boxes and does appear to have the confidence of his coaching staff. Sometimes, you have to pick and choose when to ignore that data, but this is not one of those times. Even with Williams back and playing in preseason games, RBs with his specific ACL injury where the PCL and LCL were involved, on average, take 100 days longer to return compared to just ACL/meniscus involvement. Additionally, like Breece Hall, I have some doubts about Williams's involvement in the passing game since he has never commanded a large target share, and Denver added Samaje Perine. You're better off avoiding these profiles this season and investing in safe assets.

Summary: Similar to Breece Hall, I am fading RBs the first year after tearing their ACL.