Through six weeks of NFL action, many players have shown us who they are. Season-long surprises such as Adam Thielen and Kyren Williams are obviously trending up. I don't need to tell you that Treylon Burks and JuJu Smith-Schuster are trending down. This article will look at players trending up in smaller samples to help you get ahead of the curve. Changes in usage and efficiency can help fantasy football managers get ahead of changes in production.
Three Up
QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
The Commanders offense has been quite a headache as far as fantasy goes. The usage between Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson has swung back and forth on a near-weekly basis. After solidifying himself as a must-start tight end, Logan Thomas disappeared in Week 6. Targets among wide receivers have been spread thin enough to make Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel volatile and challenging to predict. Sam Howell, however, has been the steady fantasy producer in this offense. He's scored 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games and four of his last five. It's not always pretty, and much of Howell's output is accrued during garbage time. But his 1,500 yards are the ninth-most in the NFL. His 214 pass attempts come in as the fifth-most. He's completing an impressive 67.8% of his attempts, good for 10th-best among starting quarterbacks. All this comes together to be the QB11 in fantasy, despite a 4.6-point dud in Week 3 against Buffalo. Howell has displayed a high ceiling in his first year as a starter. He will fit firmly in the discussion as a weekly back-end QB1 going forward.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
After a head-scratching Week 5, where Zack Moss handily out-paced Jonathan Taylor in every usage metric, the tides are shifting back toward Taylor. Many pundits reported that Taylor was milking his injury to leverage a bigger contract, but his stint on the PUP may have been well-warranted. Taylor has yet to look like himself through his first two games back, averaging a career-low 2.6 yards per carry. Given four years of hyper-efficiency, we can chalk that up to his ankle injury. He's yet to log a broken tackle or a breakaway run. But looking at snaps, routes, and opportunities in Week 6, it was nearly a 50/50 split between Moss and Taylor, despite Taylor's struggles. As this season progresses, Taylor and his $42M contract should continue to carve out a more prominent role. The last time Taylor was healthy, in 2021, he was second in the league in weighted opportunities. Moss has proven to be a formidable backfield mate, but expect the usage sliders to continue moving in Taylor's favor. He is a strong buy-low for anyone panicking over his current production.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley was expected to be the Jaguars' WR1 in 2023, but Christian Kirk is outpacing him in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points. Ridley was force-fed 11 targets in Week 1 and has not eclipsed the eight-target market since. In that Week 1 outing, Kirk was the odd man out, pulling just three targets. He has seen six-plus in every game since and outscored Ridley in four of the last five games. Kirk became Trevor Lawrence's safety blanket in 2022 and into the playoffs. He's picking up right where he left off in the 2023 season. Currently the WR15 on the year, Kirk's 14.0 points per game are in line with his 14.2 points per game from last year, when he finished as PPR's WR12. Since that wonky Week 1 outing, Kirk's 16.4 points are more than respectable. Lawrence is capable of supporting multiple pass-catching options, and Kirk should be viewed as a high-end WR2 going forward.
Three Down
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
One of last year's biggest surprises was Geno Smith. Seven years removed from a starting role, Smith led the Seahawks to a winning record while finishing the year as fantasy's QB5. Toward the end of the year, though, we saw Smith cool down. His completion percentage and yards per attempt dipped over the second half of the season. His interception rate went up, and his touchdown rate went down. And those trends are carrying over into 2023. It's also negatively impacting DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, averaging 13.5 and 12.4 points per game. Through Week 5, Smith is fantasy's QB22 with just 14.0 points per game. On a per-game basis, he's being outscored by Joshua Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, and many more. It's probably best to cut bait in single-quarterback leagues and pivot to one of this year's breakout quarterbacks.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
The volume has been there yet again. But Joe Mixon's efficiency is awful this year, meaning the volume isn't turning into meaningful fantasy production. Mixon's 112 touches are the fourth-most in the league behind only Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Etienne Jr. However, his 69.0 fantasy points come in as 19th. Per-game, Mixon is PPR's RB27. He's averaging just 3.8 yards per attempt, a number he's eclipsed in all but two years of his career. His 1.5 yards after contact per attempt are a career-low. He's breaking tackles at the lowest rate of his career. The touches should remain, but hopes that Mixon could be an RB1 this year should probably be revisited. Mixon slots in as more of a back-end RB2 going forward.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Finishing as the WR6 and WR9 last year, there was enough for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to eat. But Brown is carving out a larger role for himself this year, leaving much less for Smith. Through Week 6, Brown is PPR's per-game WR6 (same as last year), while Smith is WR27. A sideline confrontation between Brown and Jalen Hurts in Week 2 ignited the "squeaky wheel narrative." Since then, Brown has dominated the Philadelphia passing attack, averaging 24.9 PPR points over 11.0 targets per game. Meanwhile, Smith is averaging just 8.2 points on 7.5 targets. Smith is a great wide receiver and should be more involved in the passing game. But it's tough to ignore his current lack of production. Weirdly enough, the Eagles' pace of play and pass rate have increased this year. However, Smith's target share has dropped from 27.0% to 22.7%. Smith's down stretch likely presents an opportunity to buy low on the talented speedster, but he will struggle to produce top-ten production again this year if these trends continue.