Back in February New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara was involved in a physical altercation on Pro Bowl weekend in Las Vegas. After playing in the game on Pro Bowl Sunday it became known that Kamara was a suspect in the assault of a person who sustained serious injuries during a fight. The NFL Personal Conduct Policy delineates a suspension of six games for players involved in situations like this. So the major question facing fantasy football managers as they head into drafts this summer is whether or not Kamara will be suspended in 2022 as a result of this incident.
What Is the Current Situation?
After this case was filed in Las Vegas Township Justice Court it was revealed that three members of his party were also charged, so there are currently four open cases against Kamara and the group that was present that night. The two charges in those four cases are called Conspiracy to Commit Battery (because multiple people were involved), which is a misdemeanor, and Battery Resulting in Substantial Bodily Harm, which is a felony. The first problem for Kamara is that the more serious case is considered a Class B felony and if convicted he would be subject to two years of mandatory prison time. The misdemeanor charge is still serious (called a Gross Misdemeanor), though less so, as it carries a maximum of 364 days in jail upon conviction.
The facts as alleged state that Kamara and his group got into an altercation with the victim and then punched and kicked him multiple times, including when he was unconscious on the ground. The case also alleges that the victim suffered a fractured orbital bone and gruesome pictures were leaked of the victim’s injuries alleged to have occurred during the confrontation.
The major wildcard in this situation is that there are reports about the fight being caught on video. The scene in the video is reportedly quite clear to the point that reports say it is apparent who hits the victim and how many times they hit him. Reports have further alleged that Kamara struck the victim eight times and that at least one of those times was when the victim was unconscious. The fact remains, however, that the video has not been leaked and the only things known about the video are from second-and third-hand accounts of people who have seen it.
Back on April 25th, this case came up for a court date called Negotiations. This is a stage in the proceeding where the Court gets an update from both sides about what is happening with the case, and then they attempt to put the case on a track commensurate with the current stance of the parties. For example, is the case headed towards a possible plea? A Motion to Suppress hearing? A trial?
Unfortunately for those wanting resolution of this case before the NFL season, that may not happen. At the April 25th court date the Defense successfully argued that the District Attorney had not provided video evidence to their clients in advance of the Negotiations court date to allow them to be prepared for the hearing. As a result, the case was continued to August 1st. The problem is, a check of the docket shows that nothing has happened in the meantime and the case will go back to court on August 1st in the same spot it was back in April. So, the timeline of the case has been delayed significantly.
What Will Happen Next With the Case?
So far the NFL has not placed Kamara on the Commissioner Exempt List. This is important. The league has known about the existence of a video and the allegedly heinous nature of the facts since the beginning and has chosen not to act. That means that in all likelihood they are waiting on the criminal case to play out before deciding what to do.
The problem is that both parties are painted into a bit of a corner. The State for its part can’t offer a sweetheart plea bargain because of the nasty allegations and the serious injuries. The Defendants for their part can’t plead to something unless it checks some important boxes like eliminating mandatory prison time and not subjecting Kamara to an immediate suspension from the league.
The logical conclusion to this is that the case isn’t going to be resolved on or before August 1. Kamara has hired famed lawyer David Chesnoff who is one of the best criminal defense attorneys in the country, let alone the city of Las Vegas. Chesnoff won’t walk his client into a buzzsaw. As a result, it is looking more and more like this case will have to be set for a trial or an evidentiary hearing once the August court date comes around. From there, it wouldn’t be unusual for the case to be scheduled after the season in the normal course of court business, or for Kamara’s side to successfully argue to get it pushed into 2023. Both possibilities mean the suspension risk shifts to next year instead of this fall.
What Are the Other Possible Outcomes?
Lawyers who practice criminal law understand something that may not always be obvious to those who aren’t in the system: rarely is anything crystal clear in these types of cases. Confrontations like these usually have two sides, and videos tend to show more than just one party having a role in the situation that developed. Assuming Kamara will be convicted of something based only on the reports from one side of the case is premature when all the facts aren’t known.
Up to this point, the NFL hasn’t shown the willingness to step in and do anything about this case unless something more develops to make it worse. The league won’t simply move from a neutral state to suspend Kamara unless there is some kind of stimulus to make them act. The main possibility for that kind of stimulus, in this case, would be a leak of the video. The parallel between this case and the videos being released on the Ray Rice and Kareem Hunt cases is an easy one to draw. Additional bad facts or salacious details about the case could also be an impetus for league action if there are things going on that haven’t been made public yet.
Of course, it is also possible that the case can be settled. As noted above, this is not without difficulties for several reasons. But Kamara’s defense team is top-notch and there is always the possibility that some things are going on here that the public doesn’t know about which would allow them to squeeze the D.A. for a favorable outcome. That seems like a long shot by August 1st, but that possibility can’t be completely dismissed.
Conclusion
Rostering Alvin Kamara certainly carries risk in fantasy beyond normal football concerns. It is a developing and volatile situation.
However, following the timeline of the legal case allows some logical inferences that present a possible value opportunity for savvy drafters right now. With the rumor floating around that Kamara is facing a six-game ban this year, his ADP has fallen to RB13 near the Round 2/3 turn. But this is shaping up to be more of a 2023 issue for Kamara than a 2022 issue.
There is always a risk when drafting a player with these serious allegations against him. A poor development for the case could instantly end the gamble on Kamara with a 6+ game suspension this fall. But for those wanting to take on the volatility, he is shaping up to be a steal in drafts if his legal issues push out to 2023. That is eminently possible and that makes Kamara a strong gamble if fantasy managers understand the risk. More will be known at the next court date at the beginning of August and Footballguys will keep you updated as things develop.
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