6 Low-Efficiency WRs: Does It Signal Progression?

Photo: USA Today Sports

Go here to see 2021's high-efficiency wide receivers who could negatively regress this season.

Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year. For example, a strong performance in one year does not predict a strong performance in the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. In 2021, wide receivers with 50 or more targeted averaged 1.85 PPR points per target.

Players who significantly overperformed this number are candidates for regression the following year, largely because of touchdown rate. Below is a group of six wide receivers who significantly underperformed the average points per target in 2021 and whether they are progression/bounce-back candidates in 2022.

Kenny Golladay (1.19 points per target)

Kenny Golladay had a disappointing first season in New York. Golladay was never healthy in 2021 and played in only 14 games. Golladay may not be a great fit for the Giants offense quarterbacked by Daniel Jones, but he should bounce back from last season. Golladay had 21 red zone targets but managed no touchdowns on the season. Golladay should have the opportunity to be the leading receiver in the Giants’ offense this season.

Allen Robinson (1.29 points per target)

Allen Robinson produced 1.29 points per target in 2021, similar to the 1.30 points per target he had on 151 targets in 2016. Robinson has been subject to poor quarterback play, bad offenses, and variance in his NFL career. Last season was no different as Robinson managed only 66 targets in 12 games and was virtually nonexistent in the red zone, with only one touchdown on 16 red zone targets. Almost everything about Robinson’s 2022 season is better than his 2021, including his quarterback, offensive coaching staff, and team. Robinson has a good opportunity for efficiency progression and volume increase in 2022.

Robbie Anderson (1.32 points per target)

Robbie Anderson had 110 targets in 2021 but managed less than 50% catch rate. His receiving mate D.J. Moore was better on a per-target basis (1.52), despite scoring only four touchdowns compared to Anderson’s five. Anderson will need a strong performance in 2022 to redirect his career because his low points-per-target number indicates poor performance more than poor variance.