Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 30 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrel Williams | RB | ARI | 183.7 | 31.8 |
| 2 | Nyheim Hines | RB | IND | 144.8 | 12.1 |
| 3 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 151.0 | 10.9 |
| 4 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 202.2 | 9.0 |
| 5 | Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | 143.8 | 6.3 |
| 6 | Russell Gage | WR | TB | 92.4 | 5.9 |
| 7 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 154.7 | 5.7 |
| 8 | K.J. Hamler | WR | DEN | 171.4 | 5.5 |
| 9 | WanDale Robinson | WR | NYG | 187.8 | 5.5 |
| 10 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 31.6 | 5.4 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/23/2022-05/30/22***
Darrel Williams is the outlier this week as he signs a deal with the Arizona Cardinals and his ADP shoots up two-and-a-half rounds. Williams is now in a crowded depth chart behind James Conner with rookie Keaontay Ingram and Eno Benjamin. I think it is fine to sprinkle some last-round Williams into your best ball portfolio but if the ADP keeps rising I think there are too many names in the Cardinals backfield to make it pay off. Nyheim Hines' rise is interesting as it was coach Frank Reich saying, "If I was a fantasy owner, I'd consider drafting Nyheim (Hines)." We are at the point in the offseason that a simple quote from a coach can lift a player's ADP a full round (12.1 spots). The names of Van Jefferson, Russell Gage, David Njoku, and Mike Williams all make sense to me as risers this week as I still think they are all very good buys at their current ADP and I can see them all continuing to rise in ADP throughout the summer.
The rookies Jalen Tolbert, Justyn Ross, and WanDale Robinson are the other three names on this list and you are going to see rookies come in and out of both the risers and fallers list all off-season as we will get mixed news on them and different touts hyping up certain rookies. The plan for drafting rookies this year is to look for the value and mix and match these types of names. Betting on a player like Jalen Tolbert might make more sense as he is tied to the Dallas Cowboys who just lost Amari Cooper and have Micheal Gallup recovering from injury. You could end up with value on Tolbert right from the start, and by the tail end of the season, he might have emerged as one of the wide receiver rookies that you wanted to draft all along and at an ADP of 151.0 right now it is a good idea to get some exposure to him. Ross is scary due to his health, and although he is tied to the Chiefs offense, he still feels like a gamble with so many names ahead of him. Robinson is someone to get some exposure to in the last round of drafts and especially if rostering Daniel Jones.
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Top 10 ADP Fallers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 30 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARI | 208.7 | 13.3 |
| 2 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 179.1 | 11.7 |
| 3 | Marlon Mack | RB | HOU | 195.1 | 7.9 |
| 4 | Taysom Hill | TE | NO | 192.4 | 7.6 |
| 5 | Matt Ryan | QB | IND | 165.3 | 6.9 |
| 6 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 160.7 | 6.3 |
| 7 | George Pickens | WR | PIT | 154.1 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Hassan Haskins | RB | TEN | 206.5 | 5.7 |
| 9 | James Robinson | RB | JAC | 156.1 | 5.6 |
| 10 | Antonio Gibson | RB | WAS | 63.5 | 5.4 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 05/23/2022-05/30/22***
The signing of Darrel Williams with the Cardinals really put a damper on the potential of Keaontay Ingram's opportunities heading into his rookie season. This is something we will see all off-season in the risers and fallers. If a team's depth chart shakes up, you will see a player rise and a player or two fall. We are trying to predict opportunity for these later round picks and the player that looks to have the most of it will get the bump while the other will take a hit in the opposite direction when it comes to ADP. Best Ball is so fun as we get to draft all off-season and try to predict signing, draft picks, suspensions, injuries, and all other news and really just try to find the best value ADPs along the way each and every draft we enter. Some other names such as Raheem Mostert, Marlon Mack, and James Robinson at running back position come with so much guessing on what their health and opportunity might be. They are easy ADP fallers to spot out as anytime you are in a draft it is really hard to select the draft button on these types of players.
Antonio Gibson should not be a faller, as there is too much worry right now about his situation. At a current ADP of 63.5, it is a great bet to believe in Gibson as a young running back who has breakout potential and the cost is affordable to find out. It's also wrong to see Zach Wilson as a faller. At an ADP of 160.7, he is a great buy right now with a lot of breakout potential in his game. The Jets have spent all offseason upgrading the entire offense just for Wilson's skill set. There are two rookies in the Top 10 who are super interesting in Hassan Haskins who looks to be the direct backup behind Derrick Henry and Geroge Pickens who goes to an offense that always seems to know how to draft and develop strong wide receivers. It's unclear why both of those names are falling at ADP, but have them in your draftable player pool.
Weekly News and Notes
- QB Baker Mayfield - The Browns say they have no plans to cut Baker Mayfield. This situation continues to get more exciting.
- TE Robert Tonyan Jr - Was limited at OTAs. This is good news as Tonyan looks to be ahead of schedule and maybe even ready for training camp.
- WR Michael Thomas - There are mixed reports on Thomas' ankle injury and where he is in his recovery.
- WR Mecole Hardman - Tweaked his hamstring. Probably too early to be scared off of drafting Hardman at this point.
- QB Jameis Winston - Is participating in OTAs this week which is a great sign that he will be 100% healthy to start Week 1.
- WR Curtis Samuel - Is participating in offseason workouts and says, "I feel good, I feel fast"
- RB Darrel Williams - The Arizona Cardinals signed Williams who will now battle with Eno Benjamin and Keaontay Ingram behind James Conner.
- RB Rashaad Penny - Is dealing with a slight hamstring issue.
- RB Travis Etienne - Head coach Doug Pederson said that Etienne will be a full-go for OTAs.
- QB Nick Foles - Signed a two-year contract with the Colts
- TE Tyler Kroft - Signed with the San Francisco 49ers.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 10% full with over 45,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 8,000 entries and is up 2% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here. The big news of the week at Underdog was the release of The Puppy which is a $5 entry tournament that will have a total of 111,780 entries. It already has 26,000 entries and is 23% full. The top prize in The Puppy is $75,000.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 1,955/55,008 full. Over the past week, 350 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 57,400/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I am going to be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!