Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 30 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrel Williams | RB | ARI | 183.7 | 31.8 |
| 2 | Nyheim Hines | RB | IND | 144.8 | 12.1 |
| 3 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 151.0 | 10.9 |
| 4 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 202.2 | 9.0 |
| 5 | Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | 143.8 | 6.3 |
| 6 | Russell Gage | WR | TB | 92.4 | 5.9 |
| 7 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 154.7 | 5.7 |
| 8 | K.J. Hamler | WR | DEN | 171.4 | 5.5 |
| 9 | WanDale Robinson | WR | NYG | 187.8 | 5.5 |
| 10 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 31.6 | 5.4 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/23/2022-05/30/22***
Darrel Williams is the outlier this week as he signs a deal with the Arizona Cardinals and his ADP shoots up two-and-a-half rounds. Williams is now in a crowded depth chart behind James Conner with rookie Keaontay Ingram and Eno Benjamin. I think it is fine to sprinkle some last-round Williams into your best ball portfolio but if the ADP keeps rising I think there are too many names in the Cardinals backfield to make it pay off. Nyheim Hines' rise is interesting as it was coach Frank Reich saying, "If I was a fantasy owner, I'd consider drafting Nyheim (Hines)." We are at the point in the offseason that a simple quote from a coach can lift a player's ADP a full round (12.1 spots). The names of Van Jefferson, Russell Gage, David Njoku, and Mike Williams all make sense to me as risers this week as I still think they are all very good buys at their current ADP and I can see them all continuing to rise in ADP throughout the summer.
The rookies Jalen Tolbert, Justyn Ross, and WanDale Robinson are the other three names on this list and you are going to see rookies come in and out of both the risers and fallers list all off-season as we will get mixed news on them and different touts hyping up certain rookies. The plan for drafting rookies this year is to look for the value and mix and match these types of names. Betting on a player like Jalen Tolbert might make more sense as he is tied to the Dallas Cowboys who just lost Amari Cooper and have Micheal Gallup recovering from injury. You could end up with value on Tolbert right from the start, and by the tail end of the season, he might have emerged as one of the wide receiver rookies that you wanted to draft all along and at an ADP of 151.0 right now it is a good idea to get some exposure to him. Ross is scary due to his health, and although he is tied to the Chiefs offense, he still feels like a gamble with so many names ahead of him. Robinson is someone to get some exposure to in the last round of drafts and especially if rostering Daniel Jones.
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