The average career of an NFL Running Back is currently 2.57 years. That number is growing to be slightly longer due to workload management and the evolution of third-down pass-catching backs. But it is still by far the least durable position in the NFL. The main contributor to running back regression is their age. The production usually starts to trend down when we see players hit the age of 28. Sometimes workload and amount of carries can play a factor, but that number can be skewed by running backs who have missed a lot of time with injuries. Most players are coming into the league at 22, and unless it’s a rare case, they are usually not producing great seasons past the age of 28. There are rare occurrences over the years like Priest Holmes and Adrian Peterson, who have had top-five years despite being older. But for the most part, we are wanting to target those under the age of 28 if we are looking for a top-12 finish. I went to Pro Football Reference to compile some data to see what fantasy scoring has looked like for running backs based on their age over the last 22 years.
Running Back PPR Finishes from 2000-2021
| Age | Total RB 1st-12th Finish | % of RB 1st-12th Finishes | Total RB 13th-24th Finish | % of RB 13th-24th Finishes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 8 | 1.5% | 10 | 1.9% |
| 22 | 21 | 4% | 18 | 3.4% |
| 23 | 33 | 6.3% | 34 | 6.4% |
| 24 | 40 | 7.6% | 30 | 5.7% |
| 25 | 41 | 7.8% | 31 | 5.9% |
| 26 | 40 | 7.6% | 24 | 4.5% |
| 27 | 26 | 4.9% | 38 | 7.2% |
| 28 | 23 | 4.4% | 27 | 5.5% |
| 29 | 12 | 2.3% | 22 | 4.2% |
| 30 | 12 | 2.3% | 11 | 2.1% |
| 31 | 6 | 1.1% | 7 | 1.3% |
| 32 | 2 | 0.2% | 10 | 1.9% |
| 33 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 0.4% |
Forming this data has been done before, but looking at it every year is good because trends can change. This shows us that the sweet spot for our highest-scoring running backs is from the ages of 23-28. Of the Top 24 running backs, 73.4% are in this age range. On average, there is only one running back per year who is 31 or older and finishes in the top 24. The optimal age for a running back is 24-26. That age range will make up about half of the Top 12 running backs and about 4-5 running backs in the 13-24 range.
Every year we see running backs fall off from their dominance. The revolving door for relevant fantasy Running Backs is constantly in motion. Five years ago, our leading backs had names like Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, and Jordan Howard. So let's look at the Top 40 running backs based on ADP for the 2022 season and their age entering the season.
ADP for 2022 Running Backs
| RB ADP | Running Back | Team | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 23 |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 27 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 26 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | TEN | 28 |
| 5 | Najee Harris | PIT | 24 |
| 6 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | 27 |
| 7 | Joe Mixon | CIN | 26 |
| 8 | DAndre Swift | DET | 23 |
| 9 | Javonte Williams | DEN | 22 |
| 10 | Nick Chubb | CLE | 26 |
| 11 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 27 |
| 12 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 25 |
| 13 | Aaron Jones | GB | 27 |
| 14 | Leonard Fournette | TB | 27 |
| 15 | Cam Akers | LAR | 23 |
| 16 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 27 |
| 17 | James Conner | ARI | 27 |
| 18 | David Montgomery | CHI | 25 |
| 19 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | 24 |
| 20 | Josh Jacobs | LV | 24 |
| 21 | Breece Hall | NYJ | 21 |
| 22 | Travis Etienne | JAC | 23 |
| 23 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | 24 |
| 24 | A.J. Dillon | GB | 24 |
| 25 | J.K. Dobbins | BAL | 23 |
| 26 | Devin Singletary | BUF | 24 |
| 27 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 23 |
| 28 | Damien Harris | NE | 25 |
| 29 | Tony Pollard | DAL | 25 |
| 30 | Rashaad Penny | SEA | 26 |
| 31 | Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | 31 |
| 32 | Miles Sanders | PHI | 25 |
| 33 | Chase Edmonds | MIA | 26 |
| 34 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | 27 |
| 35 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 24 |
| 36 | Ken Walker | SEA | 21 |
| 37 | Melvin Gordon | DEN | 29 |
| 38 | Michael Carter | NYJ | 23 |
| 39 | James Robinson | JAC | 24 |
| 40 | Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | 23 |
First off, let me say that injuries are unpredictable. Based on the data, I can't advise you not to take certain players because of injury history. Especially with today's advances in medicine and science, it is hard to know who is really injury-prone or unlucky.
Our running backs approaching the danger zone for a fall-off in production this year based on age are Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliot, and James Conner. There is still a good chance that all of these backs produce, but also, they are floating in that age range of beginning their decline or not providing value at their current ADP. Not to mention all of these players have at some point had injury issues. Now, none of this is an exact science. These are just estimates based on fantasy scoring from the last 22 years.
We are seeing innovations with load management or even rapid recoveries from injuries (i.e., Cam Akers). The best advice I can give you for a redraft league would be to ensure that you have the starters' backup on your roster. If it is because of injury or a lack of production from their age, you at least hedge yourself as best as possible with the next option in the backfield. Target guys like Hassan Haskins, Isaiah Spiller, Alexander Mattison, Mark Ingram or the best option in the New Orleans backfield, A.J. Dillon, Rachaad White, Tony Pollard, and Darrel Williams. These are all projected backups worth their ADP regardless of if you roster the starting back. But I would be wary in a dynasty league of the running backs approaching the age of 28 or above.