The Divisive Outlook for Marquise Brown

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The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

Shockwaves rippled throughout the league this offseason as wide receivers changed teams at a blistering pace.

• Davante Adams traded to the Las Vegas Raiders
• A.J. Brown traded to the Philadelphia Eagles
• Amari Cooper traded to the Cleveland Browns
• Tyreek Hill traded to the Miami Dolphins
• Christian Kirk signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars
• Allen Robinson signed with the Los Angeles Rams
• JuJu Smith-Schuster signed with the Kansas City Chiefs
• Robert Woods traded to the Tennessee Titans

And last but certainly not least, Marquise Brown was traded from the Baltimore Ravens to the Arizona Cardinals. The fourth-year receiver quietly requested a trade. The Ravens’ front office not only granted his request but sent him to the Cardinals, where he re-unites with Kyler Murray, his college quarterback at Oklahoma.

A Divisive Player

Opinions vary widely about Brown and his fantasy prospects in Arizona. He currently has an ADP of WR20, putting him squarely in the WR2 category in both 10-team and 12-team drafts. But among the consensus top-25 receivers, only Courtland Sutton has a wider range of expectations among Footballguys staffers.

TABLE: Top 25 Ranked Receivers, Sorted by Standard Deviation of Staff Ranking

Our staff ranks Brown as high as WR16 and as low as WR44. These volatile players often can be the most important to understand. Some of our staff would pound the table at his ADP, while others would strongly avoid drafting him.

Testing Assertions

If you’re excited about drafting Marquise Brown, it’s likely because you believe the following:

1) A run-first offense in Baltimore limited him

2) Kyler Murray is a better passer than Lamar Jackson

If you’re worried about Brown, your reservations likely center around the following:

1) Brown couldn’t crack the Top 20 last year despite 145 targets

2) The Cardinals have a deep receiving corps and spread the ball around

Let’s quickly examine each of these contentions.

A Run-First Offense Limited Brown

In his first two seasons, the case could be made. The Ravens ranked dead last (32nd) in attempts in 2019 (440) and 2020 (406). Although Brown was targeted frequently, he totaled fewer than 100 targets in 2019 (71) and 2020 (99). Last year, however, Brown was targeted 145 times. Despite ranking 9th in targets last season, Brown only finished as WR21 in PPR scoring. Of the 34 receivers with 100+ targets in 2021, Brown was among the least productive on a per-target basis.

TABLE: 100+ Target Receivers, Ranked by Fantasy Points per Target (2021)

Verdict: FALSE. Brown was hamstrung in his first two seasons but was unleashed last year and struggled to parlay a heavy target volume into fantasy stardom.

Kyler Murray is a better passer than Lamar Jackson

Because Lamar Jackson runs so much, and the Ravens have limited his passing volume, there’s a perception he’s not a good passer. There’s also a perception Kyler Murray is a gunslinger and among the league’s best passers. But does the evidence concur?

TABLE: Career Passing Metrics, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray

While Murray has thrown more (1,581 attempts in 3 seasons) than Jackson (1.329 attempts in 4 seasons), Jackson has been the more impressive passer. He averages more yards per attempt, throws touchdowns at a much higher rate, and has a better career passer rating.

VERDICT: FALSE. Murray has a higher completion rate and throws a lot more, so his overall stats are gaudier, but by almost every metric, Jackson has been the better passer.

Brown Couldn’t Crack the Top 20 Despite 145 Targets

VERDICT: TRUE. As we’ve already shown, despite finishing 9th in targets last year, he only finished as WR21.

The Cardinals Spread the Ball Around

In three seasons, Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have spread the ball around a lot. The team’s No. 1 target has averaged 21.6% target share, and the No. 2 target clocks in at 16.2% target share. By comparison, the Ravens' No. 1 target saw 24.1% of targets, and the No. 2 notched 21.0%.

DeAndre Hopkins had a monstrous 160 targets in 2020 (his first season in Arizona), so there is precedent for a hyper-volume workload. But Hopkins’ 2020 usage has been the outlier.

TABLE: Target Volumes for the Arizona Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury (2019-2021)

VERDICT: TRUE. The Cardinals have been one of the most balanced passing teams in the league under Kingsbury, inclusive of Hopkins’ monstrous 2020 workload. It’s unrealistic to expect Brown to match last year’s 145 targets even if he’s the team’s clear-cut No. 1.

If we’re keeping a tally, the two most prominent bullish assertions are mainly false, while the two most significant opposing viewpoints are valid.

So does that make Brown a fade? Not necessarily…

Football isn’t always about data and precedent. We sometimes forget these are human beings. Players improve. Systems evolve. And chemistry – while hard to quantify – is real. Just look at how Donovan McNabb went from a good-not-great passer for most of his career into an MVP candidate when Terrell Owens showed up. Or how Tom Brady went from the ultimate game manager to a 50-touchdown passer when Randy Moss arrived.

Marquise Brown and Kyler Murray are buddies. They trust each other. They’re palpably excited about playing together. Don’t assume this won’t be a case of 1+1=3.

• Brown averaged 18.3 yards per reception at Oklahoma versus 12.1 yards per catch in Baltimore
• DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games to start the season
• Christian Kirk signed with the Jaguars in free agency
• The Cardinals' front office targets Brown as the final piece to unlock the offense
• Brown has dominated in zone coverage (82% success rate), and the Cardinals system will put Brown in a role that sees lots of zone looks

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Marquise Brown invites debate. Opinions among our staff vary from Brown as a breakout star to a complete bust. While the negative assertions driving Brown’s naysayers have validity, they’re not ironclad. Two years ago, everyone was convinced DeAndre Hopkins was a fade because he would never see the target volume in Arizona he was used to in Houston. Hopkins ended up with 160 targets and finished as WR9. There’s no question Brown will be given every opportunity to be the Cardinals' alpha receiver. While expecting 145 targets is aggressive, there’s reason to believe Brown’s usage will improve on a per-target basis. Ultimately, drafting Brown is as much a referendum on what you think of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury as it is about Brown. Brown is probably a fade if you think we’ve seen the best of what Murray can do. If you think there’s another level to unlock, Brown could be the value receiver to target.