The Spotlight Series
A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson
Tight Ends
2 is the Magic Number
Some players invite debate. For example, our staff can’t agree on Cole Kmet’s value – his ranking ranges from TE9 to TE25. On the other hand, Mark Andrews is almost universally regarded as the No. 2 tight end this year behind Travis Kelce.
Footballguys Staff Rankings Distribution
- 10 of 15 rank Andrews TE2
- 4 of 15 rank him TE1
- 1 ranks him TE3
When the pessimists see a player as the No. 3 at the position, there’s not much drama.
Yet, Andrews has never finished as the No. 2 Tight End
TABLE: Andrews Stats and Fantasy Ranking (2019-2021)
| Year | Tgt | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 98 | 64 | 852 | 10 | 209.2 | 5 |
| 2020 | 89 | 58 | 701 | 7 | 170.1 | 7 |
| 2021 | 154 | 107 | 1,361 | 9 | 297.1 | 1 |
He’s finished TE5, TE7, and TE1 in three years as a full-time starter.
Why doesn’t anyone rank Andrews lower than TE3 when he’s finished lower than that in two of three seasons?
Andrews' range of outcomes hinges almost exclusively on how many targets he gets..
- 2019 -- 98 Targets (5th among NFL tight ends)
- 2020 -- 89 Targets (10th)
- 2021 -- 154 Targets (1st)
Wasn’t last year the outlier for targets?
Yes, Andrews was targeted fewer than 100 times in 2019 and 2020, but he vaulted to 154 targets last year. The Ravens went from 32nd in passing attempts in 2019 and 2020, to 9th last year. Last season was not a blueprint for success, as the Ravens finished with an 8-9 record and in last place in the AFC North. Head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are going to bring the run/pass ratio back into balance.
While 154 targets are unlikely again, expecting more than 100 targets isn’t
- Lamar Jackson has improved as a passer. There’s a difference between re-establishing the run game and rolling things to where they were in 2019
- Marquise Brown (315 targets over the last three seasons) was traded to Arizona
- Another 120 targets from last season were vacated by personnel departures
- Andrews’ target share has never been below 21.9%
We currently project the Ravens to throw the ball 516 times, which is approximately the midpoint of the Ravens' last two seasons.
TABLE: Ravens QB Projections, Consensus
| Season | Comps | Atts | % | PaYards | Yds/Att | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FanPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Projection | 343 | 516 | 66.4 | 3842 | 7.44 | 25.8 | 14.1 | 173.6 | 1004 | 6.6 | 421.2 |
| 2021 Stats | 396 | 610 | 64.9 | 4267 | 7.00 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 185.0 | 1071 | 4.0 | 410.5 |
| 2020 Stats | 256 | 405 | 63.2 | 2904 | 7.17 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 186.0 | 1114 | 7.0 | 395.6 |
| 2019 Stats | 288 | 439 | 65.6 | 3352 | 7.64 | 37.0 | 8.0 | 196.0 | 1284 | 7.0 | 478.0 |
Andrews has averaged 2.0 fantasy points (PPR) per target in his career, and his average has been remarkably consistent season to season.
TABLE: Andrews Season Totals, Fantasy Points per Target, and Target Share (2018-2021)
| Season | Targets | Recs | Yards | TDs | FPTs | FPT/Tgt | Tm Tgts | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 50 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 2.14 | 556 | 9.0% |
| 2019 | 98 | 64 | 852 | 10 | 209.2 | 2.13 | 440 | 22.3% |
| 2020 | 89 | 58 | 701 | 7 | 170.1 | 1.91 | 406 | 21.9% |
| 2021 | 154 | 107 | 1,361 | 9 | 297.1 | 1.93 | 611 | 25.2% |
| Total | 391 | 263 | 3,466 | 29 | 783.6 | 2.00 | 2,013 | 19.4% |
Andrews saw 25.2% of the Ravens' targets last season, a career-best. While that may not be sustainable, the loss of Marquise Brown makes it hard to see major regression.
Applying a range of projected target volumes to our team projections of 516 pass attempts yields the following:
| Implied Tgt% | Imp Tgts | Imp FPTs | 21-Rank | 20-Rank | 19-Rank | 18-Rank | 17-Rank | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.0% | 103.2 | 206.9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4.0 |
| 22.5% | 116.1 | 232.8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2.8 |
| 25.0% | 129.1 | 258.6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.2 |
| 27.5% | 142.0 | 284.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.4 |
A few observations:
- A 20% target share (lower than any year as a starter) implies 103.2 targets and would generate 206.9 fantasy points. That would've ranked no worse than TE6 (2019) and as high as TE3 (2017, 2020, 2021) and, on average, would place Andrews as TE4
- A 22.5% target share yields an expected season ranking of 2.8, so effectively TE3
- A 25.0% target share (matching last year's role) yields an average finish of 2.2
- A 27.5% target share (career best) would put Andrews at a coin flip to finish 1st or 2nd
A Firm Hold on the No. 2 Ranking, But Don't Get Cute and Draft Him Over Travis Kelce
It's clear Mark Andrews deserves his No. 2 consensus ranking, even if we assume a significant reduction in passing attempts as the Ravens reclaim their offensive identity. But keep in mind there's a big difference between targeting Andrews as TE2 in the third or fourth round of 12-team drafts and convincing yourself Andrews is going to outperform Travis Kelce again. Just as it's hard to model Andrew falling short of a top-5 finish barring injury, it's equally hard to project him ahead of Kelce based on projected workload.
Whereas we showed Andrews' 154 targets last year was an outlier and unlikely to be repeated, Kelce's target volume is much higher and stickier, particularly with Tyreek Hill being traded to Miami.
- Kelce has averaged 1.97 fantasy points per target with Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback (nearly identical to Andrews)
- Kelce has averaged 142 targets over four seasons with Mahomes (versus 114 targets per season for Andrews)
Stats and Projections
| Season | Games | Recs | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 15 | 64 | 852 | 10 |
| 2020 | 14 | 58 | 701 | 7 |
| 2021 | 17 | 107 | 1361 | 9 |
Stats and Projections
| Projector | Games | Recs | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.2 | 89.3 | 1128 | 9.1 |
| Anthony Amico | 17.0 | 92.2 | 1215 | 10.2 |
| Sigmund Bloom | 17.0 | 78.0 | 1067 | 10.0 |
| Justin Freeman | 15.0 | 92.5 | 1176 | 8.8 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 92.0 | 1115 | 9.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 89.2 | 1123 | 7.5 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 85.0 | 1105 | 8.0 |
Final Thoughts
Mark Andrews shocked the fantasy world last year and finished as the No. 1 fantasy tight end, thanks to 154 targets. Unfortunately, the Ravens struggled to their worst season in years in 2021 and are committed to returning to a more balanced, run-heavy focus. We don't think they'll regress back to the 400-450 pass attempt range we saw in 2019 and 2020, but they will be well short of last year's 611 attempts. The good news is Andrews doesn't need a massive target share to have fantasy value. He's averaged 2.0 fantasy points per target over his career, which puts his floor (in a healthy season) as TE4 and his most likely outcome as TE2. He shouldn't be drafted before Travis Kelce, but there's no other tight end whose name should be called on draft day before the Ravens All Pro.